stuartpearsonmusic
391 posts
stuartpearsonmusic
@stuartpearsonm2
Making dark, brooding sounds since before ears worked. Dark Americana, Gothic County, Psychedelic Country Folk Music. https://t.co/LLPouVI0zv
Katılım Şubat 2020
298 Takip Edilen60 Takipçiler
$ASTS: T-Mobile launched its T-Satellite service powered by Starlink on 7/23/25. The deal's one year of exclusivity which ends on 7/23/26. That day I'll start a tracker counting how many days it takes for T-Mobile to announce a partnership with AST SpaceMobile
Anp🅰️nman@spacanpanman
$ASTS: Which Starlink Mobile MNO partner will switch to AST SpaceMobile first?
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@spacanpanman this is a valuable lesson for all of us, no matter how long you have been in the markets - a sure thing isn't, when powerful people can make money fading it.
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$ASTS: Bernstein cuts the price targets of AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, Comcast, and Charter on Starlink competition concerns. Funny thing is they have no idea AST SpaceMobile is the strategic counter for all of these players. Bernstein is not alone, most of the street has no clue what AST SpaceMobile is or what it's doing.
AT&T, Verizon Targets Cut at Bernstein on SpaceX Competition
By Ryan Vlastelica
(Bloomberg) -- Bernstein is trimming its price targets on a number of telecom companies, citing increasing competitive risk from SpaceX’s Starlink service.
“While near-term fundamentals remain intact, the prospect of a well-funded and rapidly scaling new entrant is increasingly weighing on investor sentiment,” writes analyst Laurent Yoon. While Starlink shouldn’t have a substantial near-term impact, it “represents another competitor in an already mature and highly penetrated broadband market, implying subscriber gains for one provider increasingly come at the expense of another, making market share shifts more consequential”
“Uncertainty surrounding Starlink is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon”
Among the price target cuts:
AT&T PT to $25 from $30, outperform rating
Verizon PT to $44 from $49, market-perform rating
T-Mobile PT to $220 from $245, market-perform rating
Comcast PT to $28 from $32, market-perform rating
Charter PT to $170 from $210, market-perform rating
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@Reformed_Trader yup. It's intentional. Same with CNBC and the rest. Apparently, they are in a "put up or shut up" mindset when it comes to reporting on any threats to Elbow's companies. ASTS gets enough sats in the sky, spigot turns on, and instant coverage everywhere. $$$
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$ASTS this is less about incompetence and more about intentional misdirection. UBS covers ASTS and obviously knows about both ASTS and Satellite Connect Europe. My best guess is these institutions are/will be building large positions while the space basket goes through a deep unwind. And then when they are ready they will start talking about how ASTS is the only viable competitor to Starlink in the D2D market.
You cannot even do a basic google search or AI chatbot analysis of European D2D satellite market and not accidentally stumble on ASTS and Satellite Connect Europe.
Anp🅰️nman@spacanpanman
$ASTS $VOD: 😂 UBS does a 47-page "deep dive" on the impact of satellite on the European Telecoms sector. The report discusses Starlink at length but makes zero mention of AST SpaceMobile or Satellite Connect Europe. An often overused claim, but truly AST SpaceMobile investors are early.
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@PhotonBull @EhrmantrautCap_ meant Korea sells the pop on Monday, not tonight.
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@PhotonBull @EhrmantrautCap_ US traders are treating this like an regrular ipo, which it isn't. Chances are Korea sells the US pop later tonight. Over time, it will be fine of course. Sold a bit of my DRAM last night after the bell, keeping some. Might buy some SKHY during the macro pullback coming up.
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The European version of SK Hynix $SKHY is trading far below the suggested ADR listing price of 180 which is now floating around
The European ticker is still down 3% on the day and does not reflect this at all, as @EhrmantrautCap_ pointed out to me earlier
Either the European ticker is a buy here or the ADR is going to have a rough time
Which will it be?
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Have gotten a few inquiring minds - what happened to Nikesh? Why is he suddenly active on Twitter? I have to credit my friend @HarryStebbings for it. When we did the podcast he said podcasts allow you to take control of your own narrative, and so does X. "Nikesh - you should try and tweet once a day" if you have something interesting to say, your business will be perceived differently. I "rebuffed him", but then I reflected upon it and promised to give it a try, here's me trying in the last week. Should I continue?
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@TheBigBerbowski like how CNBC refuses to mention ASTS if it's not on a Cramer watcher caller. Dumbfounded.
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This is Bloomberg.
Just remember it next time you read anything reported by them.
First, they report $META news "Meta is planning a cloud business to sell AI computing power".
The market sold off. The damage was done.
However, the title and the actual news is different.
"The company is also considering selling access to “raw” computing capacity, akin to other so-called neocloud businesses like CoreWeave Inc., the people said."
Fast forward a few days later and there's a different story. Meta spokesperson had to intervene.
"Meta is still hungry for even more computing power, the spokesperson said. It is still moving forward with plans for expensive new data centers and recently inked major computing deals with CoreWeave Inc., Alphabet Inc.'s Google and Oracle Corp., among others."
The market tanks on lies and deception and needs a lot more strength to recover.
Thank you, Doomberg.
Sadly, a lot of journalists just want to create headlines. Should they at some point be held accountable?
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@Defiantclient2 @WillTownTech @TMobile @chrissambar was it planned 2 years in advance? If so, why leave AT&T in the first place? Do AT&T and T-Mobile (or DT) have some inner agreements/cooperations that the public aren't privvy to? Maybe agreed to when Sievert brought Elon aboard as a Plan B? And why Public Storage?
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@WillTownTech @TMobile @chrissambar Hey Will can you get Chris on another interview?? Would love to learn more about his journey going from AT&T --> Public Storage -->T-Mobile. What brought him back? Thanks.
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Solid hire @TMobile with @chrissambar - he brings a unique understanding of both operations and customer needs ⬇️
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@spacanpanman I would LOVE to know why he left $T for Public Storage and what it took for $TMUS to get him. It was such a short time period away from his 20-year career choice.
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$ASTS: 🔥Former AST SpaceMobile Board Member and AT&T President of Network, Chris Sambar, has just been appointed as T-Mobile Chief Enterprise Officer
Chris was a massive advocate of AST SpaceMobile and it makes complete sense as to why T-Mobile hired him at this critical strategic juncture
Chris knows AST SpaceMobile's capabilities better than anyone in the wireless industry, he's close friends with Abel and he's best positioned to represent T-Mobile in the AT&T and Verizon Joint Venture discussions
Watch Chris tell the story of how he and Abel met and how AST SpaceMobile became a critical strategic partner of AT&T
Full youtube: youtube.com/watch?v=JIK-UA…
YouTube
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@aleabitoreddit @lucas_SPACs you really should be in both. Been in ASTS since 2020, average price $5.43/shr. Seems like your kinda return, eh? Still can 10X from here.
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@lucas_SPACs idk Spacemob hasn't been doing too well over the past year compared to bottleneck bros.
I think it's mainly just opportunity cost, even if I like $ASTS long term.
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@amitisinvesting NVDA turned green after hitting a low of $191 today. Bought some DRAM, PENG, MRVL and CRDO. Good day to buy, maybe tomorrow too.
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so is this chip selloff going to be like every other chip selloff in the past two months where the dip gets bought within a few days?
or are people actually selling here
every time you think the momentum is truly fading...dip buyers come in
obviously $MU getting below $900 is psychologically ugly but I wonder if it's just sweeping liquidity to come back higher
the biggest tell for why I think the dip could get bought: $AMZN is getting ready to raise ANOTHER $25B of bonds
the hyperscalers keep levering up...to eventually spend it...on the semis
still, even with these 10-15% declines, most of the semis up 50%-200% YTD
anyone buying today?
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@ParadisLabs the caveat is that DISK is very actively managed - sometimes daily adjustments to the holdings. DRAM adjustments are quarterly. So with DISK you might as well just give your money to a broker. Screw that!
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$DISK is a new memory ETF that just launched last week.
By Tema ETFs (in partnership with SemiAnalysis).
Top 10 holdings:
1. Kioxia: 17.10%
2. $SNDK: 16.81%
3. Samsung Electronics: 8.01%
4. SK Hynix: 7.45%
5. SK Square: 5.24%
6. Innodisk: 5.13%
7. $MU: 4.70%
8. $WDC: 4.67%
9. Seagate Technology: 4.54%
10. Nanya Technology: 4.36%
Way more diversified than $DRAM, which has over 75% in the big three of Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung.
And then a long tail of similar names from Sandisk to Kioxia to Western Digital.
Personally don't like how underweight $DISK is on Micron. And how underweight $DRAM is on Sandisk.
Don't think you can go wrong with either tbh, but if I was to construct a memory ETF, the composition would be closer towards $DISK.
I.e. slightly higher concentration NAND w/ Kioxia and Sandisk.
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@ParadisLabs and the CEO not announcing the cancellation for 4 days while the stock ran up... bad monkey - sold what I had at that point. Holding Sivers is the way to play POET without the risk of POET.
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There's way too much drama with $POET currently:
Just look at how $MRVL cancelled all their orders including initial production units that $POET had been trumpeting since around 2023.
Their CFO fumbled the bag massively by disclosing confidential info in some random interview.
To me, when a C-suite member does shady sh!t like that, it usually signals that the whole company is a mess top-down.
On top of this, you've had crazy levels of dilution over the past few years too.
You never know if they'll dilute again, but:
I think dilution could potentially ease up now tbh just by looking at current cash of $430M + $400M May raise which gives them a few years runway at ~$9M / quarter cash burn.
So they should (in theory lol) be able to fund a proper capacity expansion in Asia. But with their management, who knows...
I did end up taking positions during Q1 mainly because of the $MRVL / Celestial light sources ties + CPO ramp timelines as an ELS supplier.
But the CFO just screwed it all up when $MRVL was meant to be their anchor customer for the next few years at least.
Probably my worst trade of the year tbh.
Rebelkamo💹🧲@rebelkamo
@ParadisLabs Great post! Btw i see that IREN is a shitco that keeps issuing shares but what do you think is wrong with POET? Jist curious
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@crux_capital_ it could really hurt CRWV, NBIS, IREN, but interestingly, it could be of no harm to small edge local buildout guys like DUOT.
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Alright, let's hear your takes on the $META news
Mostly interested in thoughts around Neoclouds and co
$NBIS $IREN $WYFI $NUAI $CRWV etc.
P Equity Research 📰@pequityresearch
Rosenblatt note on Meta $META: "Bloomberg reported today that Meta was planning a cloud business to sell AI computing power. The story noted that the company is considering selling access to various AI models hosted on its existing AI infrastructure, as well as "raw" computing capacity, as part of its Meta Compute initiative. During their annual meeting (May 27), Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg told shareholders leasing cloud computing business was possible if they overbuild their data center capacity, which at the time he indicated they had not. Additionally, questioning on Meta's 1Q results call was focused on the ROIC of their CAPEX, so we are not surprised by today's messaging from Bloomberg's "people familiar with the matter." Our checks show no change in hyperscale posture toward GPU compute procurement, with GPU shortages the norm right now across the industry. We also do not think that Meta has the right to resell any of the capacity that they have leased from CoreWeave through 2032 to third parties." No change in GPU compute procurement can be bullish for $NVDA $AMD if this stands. Still early to decide.
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I have found an interesting connection between $SIVE and $NVDA
$NVDA is actively testing TFLN technology from a company called HyperLight, which uses UMC as its foundry
HyperLight and UMC are working with $JBL, one of $NVDA main suppliers for large-scale assembly and integration of optical modules
The key takeaway here is that $SIVE is the exclusive laser supplier for $JBL integrating its solutions into LRO transceiver modules
Furthermore, it is highly likely that $SIVE also supplies the InP laser engine in this supply chain
As a result, $NVDA is evaluating HyperLight’s TFLN while simultaneously gaining additional exposure to $SIVE from another angle of its supplier ecosystem
This is an indirect but rock-solid link in the high performance optics space
A critical segment for the growth of AI and data centers
This significantly reinforces the upside potential for $SIVE
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@michael_rigoni @machoman3314 although that last line should have read "Hyperlight" not "Hyperlink". I typed too fast.
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@michael_rigoni @machoman3314 I think you mean credit: me.
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BREAKING 29.06.26
This is an extremely significant development for $SIVE 👀 $NVDA
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@StormDirac 7) NVDA is now reviewing Hyperlight’s TFLN, while also gaining exposure to Sivers from yet another angle.
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@StormDirac 5) Sivers is the exclusive laser provider for Jabil, embedding Sivers lasers into a proprietary Linear Receive Optical (LRO) transceiver module. 6) Sivers is very likely involved as the supplier of the InP laser engine, due to their partnership with Jabil.
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"The Laser Bottleneck: Mesh, Marvell, and the CW DFB Supply Chain That’s About to Get Very Expensive" by nexusfinance
open.substack.com/pub/nexusfinan…
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