@JacobShap It’s a fair point. I understand the constraint.
I guess it's hard to see a world where the Saudis can live with that dynamic with the Iranians.
Maybe if they can’t open Hormuz, they build more pipeline capacity to the Red Sea.
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Aaron Drucker
3K posts
Aaron Drucker
@DruckerAaron
Energy, history, macro, and some LNG. Connecting dots.
Katılım Haziran 2016
233 Takip Edilen219 Takipçiler
@DruckerAaron And at the end of the day oil will still have to go through the strait of Hormuz. If the U.S. can’t open it by force what makes you think the Saudis can?
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@JacobShap I think I understand your overarching point that the Iranians have a vastly superior military to the Iranians, and you would know better than me anyway.
However, I think the Saudis have an equal level of pain tolerance and would hit the Iranians with everything they have.
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I’ll save you some time on the Iran address:
• It’s Biden’s fault
• 48 hours
• Two weeks
• Some incoherent gibberish
• We’ve won
• We are way ahead of schedule
• It’s a little excursion
• We have obliterated them
• We’ve knocked out all their ships
• I could open up the Strait of Hormuz
• Go get your own oil
• They gave us a present
• NATO are cowards
• Something about Nuclear weapons
• Allies are useless
• We need allies
• Nobody’s ever seen anything like it
• Fake news
• DEMOCRATS
• Obama
• More gibberish
• I know more than the generals
• Greatest foreign policy ever
Am I missing anything?
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@Hedgeye Now do land area and see how much the US really hates tech bros.
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@OzarkPath @Gaurab What in the fuck are you talking about?
Most of the LNG facilities in operation in the U.S. were permitted under Obama.
Biden had his LNG pause during a fit senility, but since the pause was lifted, only one U.S. LNG facility has actually gone through FID.
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@DruckerAaron @Gaurab Incorrect. Global energy sales are highly influenced to outright controlled as part of national security by most countries. Dem Admin work against fossil fuels blocking builds of pipeline & LNG export facilities while Rep do opposite.
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The U.S. is running Elon's playbook on LNG: Build it before the world knows it needs it. A decade ago, American LNG exports were near zero. Today the US is the world's largest exporter at 15 billion cubic feet per day with eight new terminals under construction. Capacity doubles to 29 billion cubic feet per day by 2029. Total capital committed: $150 billion. The contracts are 20-year take-or-pay, denominated in USD. During COVID, buyers cancelled every cargo they could. They still paid billions in fixed fees. Then Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar, 20% of global LNG supply, went offline. Vessel transits dropped from 129 per day to 4. Europe needed a replacement. BUT the contracts were already signed. US share of European LNG: 27% in 2021, 56% today. Germany went from zero LNG imports to sourcing 94% from America. Japan is locked through 2050. American LNG is a 20-year legal obligation with no exit clause.
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Bu yaz da ABD LNG tesislerine kasırga isabet ederse, 2026 LNG'nin felaket yılı olur
Stephen Stapczynski@SStapczynski
The global gas supply crunch is getting worse 🚨 🇦🇺 Chevron’s Wheatstone gas plant was damaged by a storm and will be shut for weeks. This is one of Australia’s large LNG export plants LNG supply was already tight due to an outage in Qatar bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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@yoyonofukuoka This isn’t new. There are pilot plants all over.
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A post reposted by Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama.
Japan’s major oil company ENEOS has succeeded for the first time in producing synthetic fuel (e-fuel) — made without using petroleum — from CO₂ in the air and water at its facility in Yokohama.
The demonstration plant’s current production scale is still very small at 1 barrel per day (roughly the size of one drum), but the company aims to scale it up to 10,000 barrels per day by 2040.
Although it is still at the experimental stage, this is drawing attention as a new fuel that could reduce dependence on petroleum.
In the timeline we’re currently living in, the move away from oil appears to be beginning at the same time as the move away from the US dollar.
片山さつき@satsukikatayama
合成燃料は、故渡文明元石連会長・エネオス会長の、水素と並んでの肝入りでもあられたと。私の衆議院議員時代の後援会代表世話人で、自民党の総合エネルギー調査会でもお話しお聞かせ頂きました。未来への投資！
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@gmiller Dude - a car factory is completely different than a data center in function. It’s not a factory.
I think you also need to consider indirect jobs created too, to be fair.
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Fun facts about data center jobs:
A 1-billion watt AI data center can cost about $35 billion to build, covering 10 million square feet, using about 5,000 temporary construction workers for 1-3 years.
But once it's up and running, it'll employ only about 500 people.
That's about as many as two Walmart stores.
By contrast, the Ford Highland Park Plant automobile factory in Detroit (operating 1910-1974) was 4 million square feet, and employed about 50,000 workers.
If you think big facilities automatically mean lots of jobs, you're not understanding just how automated these data centers are.
AI lobbyists often promise that data centers will 'create lots of permanent new jobs'. Politicians funded by the AI industry echo these promises.
Both are lying to you.
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Must be because of all those drug submarines Pete Hegseth shot down in the Caribbean.
20minutos.es@20m
Los tiburones de las Bahamas dan positivo en cocaína, cafeína y analgésicos mrf.lu/fxNx 20minutos.es/gonzoo/los-tib…
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@ira_joseph @ColumbiaUEnergy I agree with that ironic reality, but it makes sense in the long term. If you think of emissions as sweeping a floor, it’s easier to pickup the litter from a single point (coal plants) than from many small points (tailpipe emissions).
GIF
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Coal has become, and arguably always was, a central part of the energy transition, which has evolved into more of an intensifying electricification than a structural decarbonization story. The former will eventually lead to the latter, but it will take more time. @ColumbiaUEnergy
Ashis Basu 🇨🇦 ashis.bluesky.social@BasuAshis
“Renewables are winner here, but so is coal,” said @ira_joseph global fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. @dharnanoor theguardian.com/environment/20…
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@NickSzabo4 @brhind28 @KevSatoshi @annmarie @NickSzabo4 - as a preface, I think you’re a genius, so I don’t contradict lightly.
While I agree WTI and Brent are sanguine because of shale oil, that has nothing to do with the price being unexpectedly muted due to the Iranians slowly opening the Strait.
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@brhind28 @KevSatoshi @annmarie The market is pretty good at pricing in those concerns, and currently its level of concern is $90 per barrel, which in historical terms, compared to other commodities, is a fairly low price -- not due to the reliability of Hormuz, but due to fracking.
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The Strait of Hormuz is still closed and yet Brent crude is trading sub $100– feels like an alternative universe.
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@gmiller @NathanLeamerDC @BuildAmericanAI In fairness, construction always create more direct jobs than the direct jobs at an operational facility.
I think you should also take into account indirect jobs creation as a function of the data center too. Though I don’t have those specific statistical.
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Answer the question.
@BuildAmericanAI claimed that after data centers are built, they'll provide lots of steady new jobs for people.
I asked how many jobs per data center. The standard estimates are 30-50 per 20 MW data center.
Do you have some radically higher number? If so, based on what?
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Hey Geoff, You seem pleasant.
Tell that to the tens of thousands of construction and tradesmen who are building across the nation.
Beyond building the infrastructure, we are seeing reindustrialization and reinvestment in communities in areas where tech has not previously gone.
cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/18…
brownstoneresearch.com/bleeding-edge/…
Geoffrey Miller@gmiller
@BuildAmericanAI @NathanLeamerDC @JenningsShow How many full-time employees will work in the average 20-megawatt, $200-million data center after it's built? 30? 50? This is such weak propaganda.
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@JacobShap @tradingrust In the LNG trains, there’s only 3 types of kit that material matter - the MR/ PR compressors, the MCHE, and the gas turbines.
I’ve seen reporting that the GT’s need to be replaced. If true, the lead times are absolutely 24 to 30 months, except for the frame
9’s in RasGas T6.
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@tradingrust Thanks! Good post, but until we can see exactly what is damaged when the war ends I hesitate to make calls one way or another. But good perspective!
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"At the same time, several forces help to moderate electricity prices. In many regions, natural gas prices are projected to decline over the coming decade as large volumes of LNG come on stream."
Has the war invalidated this?
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This is ludicrous propaganda. Iran is shepherding ships through their Hormuz safety route as we type. Oil prices have fallen significantly from their >$110/barrel highs because Iran is re-opening the Strait. The only thing the U.S. Navy can do is make it *less* secure and re-close it.
This is the 21st century. Military technology and tactics have fundamentally changed, and no navy or even combination of navies in the world any longer has the ability to remove Iran's military veto power over commercial shipping at Hormuz.
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And Trump just explained why there’s virtually no commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz right now.
The Lincoln is ~600 miles off Iran’s coast. That gives it several minutes of warning time, plus an entire air wing, three destroyers, a submarine, and layered missile defenses.
Opening the Strait is much harder. You’d need to send destroyers (or escorts) through waters that are often just a few miles from the Iranian coast. There, ships get only seconds — not minutes — to react to incoming missiles and drones.
Commercial operators won’t move until the US Navy proves it’s safe. Until then, they’re sitting tight unless a deal is struck.
Clash Report@clashreport
Trump on Iran: They shot 100 missiles at USS Abraham Lincoln, and every single one was knocked down on the sea.
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That is fantastic!!! #RockChalk
If I remember correctly (2007), I got the B+ because I was late for class that day, but overall got an A- for the term.
This was all before I got Bonnie and Bernie tattooed on me in 2011.
Aaron Drucker@DruckerAaron
@HatClub @UOsojc I fairness, that’s not the worst reason I’ve heard for a college prof to withhold an A. On the flip side, I once drew a picture of the Jayhawks logo for an answer on a Cal 2 exam and got partial credit. Long live logos.
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It was for my advertising class at @UOsojc, taught by Dr. Bill Ryan. He gave me a B+ because he’s a Cubs fan.
Aaron Drucker@DruckerAaron
@HatClub I’m just impressed you wrote a college paper on MLB logos. I had no idea the love went that deep.
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