Lonne

$BTC longs Target hit, 71.5k hit, exactly as predicted, big pay received! 💰💰💰 ... is what every influencer who doesn't share executions (99% on this platform), would say. But if you scroll down just one post below this one, you know I openly exited the longs loudly and clearly for reasons mentioned in that very post, with the main issue of conviction in long dropping last post. Well, it still happened exactly as planned. So we called the market, but didn't benefit from it and even took a small loss instead. Certainly bummed about that, and I am going to review how this range has gone so far in its totality up to now, how it started out excellently, how it derailed a bit the last two trades despite having the exact right idea (the short at 72k and the long at 69k after), what happened, what went very well (the 6 wins) and what could have gone better (the 2 losses) and why. That's for next post, also sharing my plan from here and tiny updates on it. On the flip side, I am glad to show you what it's like to be fully "right", but not make money at the same time, instead even lose money. Probably one of the clearest live and real trading situation examples you will ever see of how being right is not the same as making money at all, educationally invaluable... Not something that happens very often in my case either since I have high conviction for every move I do, but I suppose it was bound to happen eventually. Being right still has benefits. As in, being glad of course my system works to perfection, always nice to see. However, with a bitter taste as we took a loss. That's 2 losses out of 8 deciding trades now inside this range. For next post, I'm going to indeed review what happened so far this range what should/could change regarding those last two trades, and how to leverage it going forward. Not very much analysis wise, analysis was fine, call it on point. But very much execution wise. It is just pressing a button. But behind it goes a lot more, so stay tuned. In the comments, feel free to let me know if you held or didn't and why. Somehow hope to hear that some of you missed my last post and fully held, hitting our target, would certainly sweeten the bitter taste somewhat.

$BTC The FOMC reversal doing its work once again. Still simply waiting before longing again. The edge I have been showing to you for a long time, and which has spread around everywhere, last lengthy post on it was indeed one of my most viewed post I ever created. But because no one really takes action on the calls going around, I am not concerned of people taking my edge and it spreading because the edge isn't used properly and money isn't gained from it. The result: the reversal simply worked out again. From uptrend to downtrend, with the top appearing before the FOMC reversal. Why does this reversal happen? What are the mechanics? I explained them many times before. But in short: it is to make everyone excited and trick them into thinking FOMC will be bullish, because price is going up, right? And because the announcement is always dubious, it can be interpreted and will be interpreted into the direction price goes, every time. This happens with every type of high impact news event btw. But because during FOMC, there is a lot of speech, it is the easiest event for price to be manipulated around. Then, once FOMC takes place, price already reversed, almost every time and keeps going for a while. That is why I am waiting to long again, and our 76k key level remains the point of resistance until it is resolved. It also created a range deviation, which means midrange, i.e. our 65k target is still coming potentially, which is where I would want to long next. Do keep in mind that time is more important than price, and so if price stalls and ranges before, there's no need to wait for 65k. The blind don't get rewarded. Only the smart do. So I generally plan to wait for midrange, but if we stall before and draw out time, I am happy to long earlier, after the duration FOMC reversals to the downside typically take, has passed. Ah yes, and final note, because it always comes up in the comments: "so you are bearish Astro". I don't know how to make it any more clear, but every high timeframe post I created has been bullish since the start of this range, because I believe it will break to the upside. Timing is key however, and the time is not "Today", yet.

$BTC 73.7k, That's range high, shorted here. Alright! We finally approached 73k, and are about to make an attempt to close above. This is the moment we aimed for happening eventually, a clean close above so we can run our two runner longs to very high prices, potentially enter a breakout long, and reel in a big payout, based on our overall bullish bias of this range breaking upwards, yes, against everyone's belief. Most people are stuck in the bear market mentality of wanting sub 50k. But before we start celebrating our glory, let's not get ahead of ourselves. Order flow is bearish, and we are at range high. We also reached above the latest high. This was the only situation I would short per last post. Yes, we're bullish. But no, we have not broken out yet. And since we're at range high (and reached above our latest high), it's naturally a good short. Nothing big, but just to have some conviction. I will be TP'ing this short quite aggressively, because I am overall bullish. Enjoy.

$BTC If we can sweep this low out now, you can basically take the exact same trade, 3rd time in a row, back to the upside.

Some background on the quoted tweet below: So the question was- "Cred, what if we hit 74k, confirming our $BTC top in in fact in?" And my response was: "If that's the case, then our alt season comes sooner rather than later." As I have stated many times, the biggest alt season is expected to happen post $BTC top, NOT before. The quoted tweet was then the response which basically asked "why would we see an alt season if we haven't seen one yet despite the "top" being in (hypothetically, assuming 74k is breached)." My chart below is a response to that, let's take a look: In 2017, after our last cycle ended, Bitcoin topped at the GREEN dotted line at 20k on December 17th. Bitcoin then dropped 50% to 10k denoted by the RED dotted line. After THIS point, following a 50% drop on Bitcoin post BTC top, we had our MASSIVE alt season which sent total alt marketcap from 170B (the day BTC hit 10k) to nearly 500B, or 3x off the lows, and new ATH. The major alt season of 2017 that everyone so fondly remembers, didn't actually begin until AFTER BTC had topped AND corrected 50% off the highs. So hypothetically, even if $BTC has topped and 74k is breached, (playing devils advocate here, I don't expect this to happen) no, I am not selling my alts and yes, we will still see the greatest alt season of the decade imo and that won't change even if BTC corrects significantly off the highs first.