Alex Etra

“We do not have enough [specialized munitions] to safely sustain operations, and I don’t think the White House is aware of that,” the official said. #IranWar‌ wapo.st/4puMk0b

US visas issued to international students fell by roughly a third in 2025. Today, DHS finalized changes to a rule known as "Duration of Status" — a move that will help lock that decline in place. The fallout for the STEM workforce, innovation, and economic growth could be severe. A sustained one-third decline in foreign STEM graduates entering the US labor force would shrink the high-skill STEM workforce by 6.2% overall and by 11.5% at the PhD level. Over a decade, that would cut annual US GDP by $240 billion to $481 billion, comparable to losing an entire state's economy. That's the estimate from @AmyMNice, in a guest research brief for Hoover's Immigration Initiative, drawing on research she co-authored with @m_clem and @JeremyLNeufeld. Read the full brief: hoover.org/research/break…

The US had infant industries (cotton textiles) but also produced some manufactures for export (ships). The trade disruptions of the Jefferson embargo, non-importation acts, and the War of 1812 helped the former but hurt the latter. On net, no acceleration in industrialization overall 2/3

When a small, agrarian economy cuts itself off from trade, does it boost industrialization? Joe Davis and I tackle this question in a new paper focusing on the US in the early 1800s 1/3

@ericwallerstein Yeah, chart is q/q saar through q1 so won't catch the bounce in real ahe in q2 (in y/y terms)

@EtraAlex not sure that data is right since ahe, even for production and nonsup, fell negative in real terms . and eci and ahe are both around 3.4% nominal

Logan builds her case for rate hikes on two notions: 1) inflation is not heading to 2%, and 2) wage growth is not beating inflation. I humbly submit this data: Real wage growth has been ~1% for the past two years, and inflation expectations are consistent with 2% PCE

@ericwallerstein If you don't wanna wait for eci and you don't mind y/y, use atl fed wage tracker (3.6 in june) less CPI (3.5 in June). Ofc then we can re-litigate which deflator to use (headline/core/supercore/super duper core, pce/cpi etc). And we'll be right back where we were in 2021/22?

@EtraAlex quarterly. does it look much different?

@bauhiniacapital @macroguru9 You just mean because they are above the midpoint, right?

@macroguru9 As of end-March. Allocs on the outside, allocation policy framework in the circles. Limits inside. Flexibility in parentheses.

Katayama Floats JGBs in Tax-Free Accounts, GPIF Portfolio Review Japan’s finance minister floated the idea of adding government bonds to a tax-free investment program for individuals and said the nation’s massive pension fund will adjust its holdings if needed, stepping up efforts to attract cash to domestic markets as the yen weakens. “If we successfully advance our growth strategy, yen-denominated assets will become more attractive,” Minister of Finance Satsuki Katayama told reporters Tuesday. “Since that’s the policy this administration is pursuing, it’s possible the portfolio could be reviewed and, if necessary, revised, as the chief cabinet secretary said.” The chief cabinet secretary noted on Monday that the GPIF conducts routine reviews of its portfolio. Katayama also cited proposals to promote investment in Japanese government bonds, including possibly making them eligible for the nation’s tax-free Nippon Individual Savings Account program and easing inheritance tax rules. “I think the time has come to move forward,” she said. “We’re now in a world of positive interest rates, and many people believe greater portfolio diversification would benefit the public.” Japan’s health minister Kenichiro Ueno echoed Katayama’s remarks on GPIF Tuesday, Japan’s Ueno Says GPIF Portfolio Will Be Reviewed If Necessary the fund’s basic portfolio will be reviewed if necessary. The health and welfare ministry oversees the GPIF.

@GregPriddy1 So where do you think oil should be/will be in a month? Obviously the big surprise for oil bulls (oat least I'll speak for myself) was China's ability to curb imports? Not sure how sustainable that is but how does that timeline intersect with reality in strait you think?

Very much in line with my expectations -- the "nothing to see here, move on" dismissiveness of #oil bears after the MOU was dead wrong. #IranWar‌ #OOTT wsj.com/finance/commod…

@ericwallerstein Someone who 'doesn't suffer fools' perhaps?

i’m not sure if it’s more apt to describe Waller as hawkish or just salty.

@VKMacro When does he not? Guy is a machine

Rodri had a v good game

@bauhiniacapital @SmartmoneyFL @jturek18 @Brad_Setser Also, I feel like US has kind of communicated would be more inclined to support FX intervention if/when BOJ is rowing in the same direction?

@SmartmoneyFL @EtraAlex @jturek18 @Brad_Setser So yeah, sell now ask questions later if you need to reduce positioning but there is really nothing here.

@bauhiniacapital @SmartmoneyFL @jturek18 @Brad_Setser I hear you. So you don't hear anything new in the BoJ comments either? Some tacit permission to proceed hiking? Just thought the conjunction of the two sounds like a 2s10s 2s30s flattener (which is also JPY supportive)?

@jturek18 @Brad_Setser @bauhiniacapital new reaction function?

Welcome to the age of the Profit Dollar ft.trib.al/KUcgHFb

@TheStalwart It's one reason why I always say NYC is the quintessential 20th century city but not sure it will be in the 21st...

Crazy to think about the gap between the MTA and the world’s most advanced subways and then think about what that gap will look like in 20 or 30 years.

@jstatistic @Atomic_GSol @aRishisays @federalreserve @FedResearch @dismaleconomist @stwill1 Cmon, don't you guys need to know who your [future] counterparties will be? 😅

@Atomic_GSol @aRishisays @EtraAlex @federalreserve @FedResearch @dismaleconomist @stwill1 There is truly no good data on this yet, and even the better data that is coming on repo will not definitively answer this. As Brandon said we're all sizing up the elephant.

Nice #FedNote from @federalreserve @FedResearch using more granular data than us plebes in the public get. While less much less precise this Z.1 based data provides a longer term perspective. Cc @jstatistic @dismaleconomist @aRishisays @stwill1

@Vinodh_Rag Not sure i totally follow the nomenclature, but yes, if UST reduces duration of issuance, it takes on more interest rate risk. Fed, via SRP (in lieu of outright holdings) takes less interest rate risk but more counterparty/margin risk

Mostly the Fed via the SRF, which is the funding leg: it caps the rate the trade rolls at, a continuity guarantee for the levered position. But once issuance composition is set around absorber demand (your 5/5), Treasury carries the collateral leg, and SLR treatment is the balance sheet leg? I believe.

Banks bought about $80-90bn in UST in Q1, roughly $60bn of which was in the 1-3y segment. They hold roughly $1.8tn in Treasury securities of which about $500bn is >5y and only $100bn of which is >15y. 1/5

@Vinodh_Rag Not sure if totally follow who's standing obligation? The Fed via SRP?

@EtraAlex If belly tilt and repo leverage is the design, then the duration risk shifts to the daily margin balance sheets? Now about 8.5% of the stock per the Feds note? At what point does this become a standing obligation?