Keith

@phillywxguy_ It is interesting have to ask Larry what he is seeing to make him beleave a low end moderate instead of something stronger.m

@Fan262026 Maybe if westerly wind bursts fail to exist during the summer (again I doubt it as we’ve already seen strong typhoons), then the case for a high end moderate El Niño (RONI values) is possible

ENSO UPDATE: (Thread) There is no doubt about it, the Pacific is getting real toasty & ENSO regions are continuing to warm as westerly wind bursts bring well above average subsurface temperatures to the surface. A strong El Niño is likely, but how strong will it get?

@phillywxguy_ Larry cosgrove thinks low end moderate

As above average temps in the rest of the Pacific “cancel out” some of the above average temps in ENSO So what does this mean? Well, I’m extremely confident ENSO SST will be WAY above average, and probably close to Super El Niño. HOWEVER…

@Wxdude518 Eric web is hyping the super El Nino he has his mind made up all ready

Why I keep using minus Global Anomalies to prove my point. 1) It was scientists that decided to use a 30yr rolling average for permanent averages across the ocean 2) As a result the entire globe is above average. It tells us nothing absolutely nothing about moving pieces that we can visualize. The Earth never had a say in any of this and yet it is calling the plays. Again no one that I see is paying remote attention to how thin the anomalies are under the surface nor the colder water moving Northward along the coast of Chile. Earth is telling me this is a huge forecast bust for Mega El Nino. It'll peak in early summer and then because the thickness values are thin the colder water from S.America will win out. Throw in a couple of hurricanes in the E.Pac early and tada... I think that's what Earth is telling us.

@e_philalethes @Tacloban1915 @AndyHazelton @LarryCosgrove Your have to convince Larry of the reasons for the super El Nino facebook.com/share/p/1L4y1y…

@Fan262026 @Tacloban1915 @AndyHazelton @LarryCosgrove Note particularly this thread: x.com/webberweather/…

I think 2023 is being used as an analog for this year because it's our most recent strong Niño event, but honestly I really don't think it fits other than the Niño. The PMM and AMO are basically opposite of what they were at this point in 2023, with a much warmer NE Pacific, and a much cooler Canary Current/East Atlantic. I think we should expect a busier East Pacific season and much more shear over the Atlantic compared to 2023, as a result.

@e_philalethes @Tacloban1915 @AndyHazelton @LarryCosgrove Only time will tell who will be right the strong side or the moderate side like Larry cosgrove.

@Fan262026 @Tacloban1915 @AndyHazelton @LarryCosgrove It almost certainly won't be moderate; but it won't be the strongest ever either. It will however be a strong to very strong event on top of the unyielding and steadfast anthropogenic GHG-induced increase in global surface temperatures, and will shatter heat records all over.

@zero_lessons @RJLcomedy Yes to sell there doom and gloom and get thd small minded to believe it.

@RJLcomedy It is good clickbait lol

Does anyone actually read the studies ? science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…

@zero_lessons Anything the new York posts posts take it with a big grain of salt.nothing but doom and gloom agenda scripted.And some people will beleave these story's unfortunately @MikeMasco

@TonyPannWBAL Whew.

The Big Spring Swing theme will continue for the Baltimore Metro over the next 7 days. Likely close to 90 on Wednesday/Thursday. By Tuesday next week, it could be cold enough for Frost! 👇 Stay tuned...

@TonyPannWBAL The roller coaster swings is the theam of this spring so far.

The weather alphabet hinting at a cooler close to the month of April for Baltimore: -AO, MJO (phase 1), and +PNA. While it will feel like Summer this week, expect high temperatures to drop into the 50s or Low 60s for a few days next week. There could even be one more frost or freeze. Stay tuned...

@Wxdude518 I don't know where all this hype of a super El Nino is coming from it more likely a moderate event then a strong case one.I think alot of the hype is agenda driven to get people to buy climate alarmisem.

The colder waters are coming North along the Chilean coast as expected. Idk how long this El Nino is going to have especially if we get a couple more super typhoons in the W Pac and a couple of early hurricanes in the E Pac.

@Tacloban1915 @AndyHazelton Strongest ever? That really going way over board @LarryCosgrove would say it's moderate at best.

@AndyHazelton That's the problem! I think that there's no analog year for this next "el niño" event ... Strongest ever!

@bryan_maxw46284 @BobbiStorm Larry cosgrove going with low end moderate so we will see who's right.

@BobbiStorm Yeah, I think at least strong El Nino, but there is plenty of time for things to still trend weaker.

The combination of a strong to super El Niño later this year, plus this huge swath of anomalously warm water off the coast of California and Mexico looks like something scripted for a Hollywood disaster movie. But it's not. If something doesn't cool off this powder keg before peak hurricane season, Mexico and even Southern California could be in for something that rewrites the history books and science books at the same time. Could @iCyclone be chasing much closer to his California base than ever before later this year?

@bryan_maxw46284 Super El Nino unlikely moderate is the likey outcome to much hupe of a super event @Larrycosgrove

@Superchri90 @Mathbert10 Cold and warm phase cycles of the north Alantic are real but slowing or break down of it is not and is nothing more then hype agenda in part in the push for climate alarmisem @MikeMasco

@Mathbert10 It could be a slowing of the AMOC as well as of natural variability.

As the Pacific begins to warm due to El Niño, North Atlantic is cooling with the AMOC slowing down!

@TomANelson @ClimateDefiance You can't fix stupidity

@ClimateDefiance No offense, but the notion that you retards represent "the youth" is off-the-charts stupid.

The Heartland Institute conservative think tank — famous for its defense of the tobacco industry and professional doubt merchants for decades — has topped itself by throwing a two-day convention for so-called "Climate Realism". Worth remembering: this is the same institute who helped Big Tobacco manufacture uncertainty about lung cancer in the '50s while 100 million people died. These grifters perfected the art of buying time for vile industry, while body counts rose. And now they're running the exact same grift on climate. This panel we disrupted was called "Bringing Youth into the Climate Realism Fold", in order to recruit the next generation to carry water for fossil fuel billionaires. What it actually was was a showcase of young conservative influencers speaking to old white people about how everything is fine, silly little youths, and how they have NOT left us with a planet on fire. So we let them know that the youth disagrees with this assessment.

@BenNollWeather Larry cosgrove leans on the low side moderate

The relative index slightly deflates the super El Niño signal, but it's still strong. This new index compares sea temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific to the rest of the tropics. According to it, 5 out of 10 models show a strong El Niño while two show super strength.

Super El Niño: 7 out of 10 climate models show a super El Niño forming in the central Pacific later this year. These are El Niño spark plumes. They leverage data from 691 ensemble members, inspired by Edward Tufte's principal of maximizing the data-ink ratio.

@rushtropicalwx The debate isn't if El Nino is coming it reather it a moderate evebt like Larry cosgrove is going with or a strong event like most of Twitter is saying.

El Nino is happening. I don't want to argue over +/- 0.5°.... We will soon be able to understand the teleconnections once we get into summer. There lies the true work. To be honest I have no idea what that will look like. But no two El Nino events are the same.

@DanEtchells @Faktantarkast10 @jrockstrom So everyone that does not buy the alarmist ideas is automatically a denier? Got news for you one can accept input in some fashion from humans with out beleaveing we control it all which is very much debatable @_WxPhil_

@Faktantarkast10 @jrockstrom And you are a climate change denier... As such everything you say on climate should be wholly disregarded.

The AMOC is slowing down. We know it has an on/off switch. We also know it would, if turned off, cause catastrophic global impacts. Unacceptable. Here our new study showing shut-down very likely bumps up warming 0.2°C through carbon cycle feedback alone. nature.com/articles/s4324…

@JustinWeather Larry agrees with the lower then normal season even those he been on the low end moderate El nino as and not the strong idea.

🌀 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Names 🧐 Is your name on the list? Want to make a guess at which may make landfall? 📝 The expected strong El Niño is likely to produce lower than average hurricane activity in The Atlantic due to increased upper levels winds limiting tropical development. #hurricane

@southeast_watch @AerosolizeX If you don't like what he says why do you respond to him.It better to just ignore one another instead of getting into an attacking war with each other

@AerosolizeX Spraying! It’s fuckin easy jet you muppet

Why is there always a mass amount of obvious spraying right before low pressure systems come in. This is not normal and a lot of people are against it. #ukweather #geoengineering