Fiscal Daddy

This is just wrong b/c they are just making smaller homes, not improving affordability.

@compoundpapi @Larryjamieson_ @scuttleblurb Where is this list?

2020 fintwit is gone and it's never coming back

Chess is 30 years ahead of every other profession in dealing with AI. The best case study we have for what's coming. 4 lessons: 1. Human-AI collaboration had a 15-year shelf life in chess. "Human in the loop" is a phase.

@debt_serious @pekwat Idk man I used to work in PE and we’d pick the private credit firm on most deals except for the larger ones where it made sense to do broad syndication. The PC firms were basically sluts and bent over in any direction you wanted to keep the relationship.

@FiscalDaddy @pekwat a) They’ve been financing the same borrowers for the past 5+ years, and PC has even moved to IG. b) Yes, PC wins deals based on higher leverage, and BSL on price. Read my original tweet again - that’s why I said PC deals are more levered and hairier. c) Have a great evening

Generally speaking, PC is much better at underwriting than banks. Their loans are more likely to struggle though because they are higher levered and hairier. Anyone who says otherwise doesn't know what they are talking about.

@PaneerCap Viking privates couldn’t just ask anyone on the public team about how Alpha Sense ruins everything they touch?

bamsec was an amazing product completely ruined by alphasense

@debt_serious @pekwat They might overlap on some deals but no bank is doing unitranche 1Ls with an ARR borrowing base.

@FiscalDaddy @pekwat BSL and PC literally compete for the same deals, often refinancing each other’s paper. There’s a lazy take out there that PC doesn’t know what it’s doing, which is exactly why I put that tweet out. You are 40 years late to the argument if you are comparing PC to 80s com.bankers.

@debt_serious @pekwat Why is that the comparison / does it matter? Banks can’t own the ‘high yield’ paper that PC owns post GFC so even if BSL UW is worse quality, the underlying paper is likely better simply b/c they aren’t allowed to own junk.

@FiscalDaddy @pekwat How do you think modern bankers fare relative to 1980s commercial bankers?

@debt_serious @pekwat 1980s commercial banker vs 2010s private credit = no difference. It’s a cope to think otherwise.

@FiscalDaddy @pekwat Between banks and PC, where do you think "better and brighter" folks work? Just curious

@FirstSquawk x.com/fiscaldaddy/st…

SK GROUP CHAIRMAN CHEY TAE-WON: SK HYNIX CONSIDERING U.S. ADR LISTING TO EXPAND GLOBAL INVESTOR BASE

@TheLAPurchaser Idk man if you can’t find even one case for this you are trying hard not to.

$0, rounded to the nearest penny

@RevGroupLLC @junkbondinvest With 50% backleverage 5% default rates are really 10%

@junkbondinvest 2.5% to 5% defaults is not sounding the alarm. Tripping over the headlines that are grossly misplaced.

Partners Group outlining the asymmetry that PC marketing ignores: AI disruption creates winners and losers. If your borrower wins, you get your coupon. If your borrower loses, you get the full downside. At least PE gets both tails. Private credit only gets the left one.

@RevGroupLLC @darren_unruh @LeylaKuni @boazweinstein This is wrong, they likely underwrote the portfolio to a risk-adjusted mid-teens IRR based on the underlying value of the assets. This is price discovery.

@darren_unruh @LeylaKuni @boazweinstein God’s work. 🤔 According to B of A. “Cox and Saba conducted no independent analysis of their offer to ensure fairness.” This is the platform we can say anything at any point even if it’s really stupid.

This one is an interesting case study on what the price of liquidity is. For background: OBDC II attempted a merger with OBDC late last year. Long story, but investors in OBDC II would have taken a 20% haircut (the merger was cancelled) The fund manager is now guiding to fund liquidation (but keep in mind, the verbiage in SEC filings is pretty open) The fund sold $600M in loans (the crown jewels of the portfolio), and is making a distribution of about 30% to all investors. Enter Saba/Cox with their tender offer (~33% discount to NAV) for ~7% of outstanding shares. According to Blue Owl: "Cox and Saba's offer price is inadequate, arbitrary and substantially undervalues OBDC II's assets and ongoing access to liquidity." LOL Three things here: 1. the remaining portfolio is not all unicorns and roses 2. the offer is voluntary - meaning, investors who want to stay in the fund don't have to sell at this price 3. I bet the 20% discount to NAV via merger with OBDC (which, again, didn't happen) is looking fairly attractive in retrospect.. I did the math to estimate the value of the remaining assets (and see what investors stand to gain - or lose - by staying in the fund vs. tendering the offers) You can read it here: open.substack.com/pub/accredited…

@johnarnold @alexolegimas These people made choices to gamble their life away. Society doesn’t even give fat people this much empathy for food addiction (which similarly can’t be avoided, designed to be addictive). It’s far easier to just delete the app / not be a degenerate gambler than not eat!

The Atlantic has a sobering, first-person look at the ramifications of legalized online sports betting. Here are a few of the more telling passages. 1/5

@karrisaarinen @DivinelyLevered Most big tech companies have been bloated for over a decade, this is healthy.

If you’re cutting 40-20%, I don’t think you’re just cutting low performers or you have a big problem. Low performers should be always managed out, mass layoffs shouldn’t be the way to do it. But yes, I think they have bloated the organizations but it didn’t happen by accident. Leadership set the goals, budget and made the effort to do it.

Working in big tech is starting to feel like a gamble. Every six months, leadership decides a % and then rolls the dice on who stays and who goes.

@AcaciaCap They should hang it up and stop trying to dump this garbage in 401Ks

She yells when they try to give investors liquidity because public markets are 20% discount to NAV. Now she says 20% wasn’t so bad. She complains that they sold assets to repay investors. What should they be doing?

Atoms. atoms.co/vision

Is jersey mikes the worst thing PE has ever done to a company ? It’s prob the worst slop possible.

@debt_serious Investors have the ick for OWL

@FiscalDaddy Maybe. Maybe not.

$Owl went public with $62B in AUM and ~$12.5B market cap. As of 12/31 their AUM was $307B, and today's market cap is $13.4B... Where is the "be greedy when others are fearful crowd"