CyborgFilip.eth
647 posts

CyborgFilip.eth
@FullCyborg
@smolecoin Marketing member | @Dystopunks - Mod







stop promoting "buy UP + DOWN for free money" on @Polymarket. i ran the numbers. it doesn't work. i collected 4.7M data points at 100ms resolution across 800+ BTC rounds. here's what the arbitrage actually looks like: the market charges ~1.3¢ juice on every UP+DOWN pair. you pay $1.013 for a guaranteed $1.00 payout. you lose every single time. "but sometimes total ask drops below $1" — yes, in 2.2% of rounds. for a median duration of 0.1 seconds. by the time your order hits the book, it's gone. the real arbs flash for 100ms and get closed by bots running on colocated servers. you're not competing with other retail traders. you're competing with infrastructure. if you want edge on polymarket, stop looking at mechanical arb. the mispricing is directional, not structural. predictor.pudgy3588.ai
























