H

@GadSaad You were great in Seinfeld

Jon Voight?

📝

@DeItaone That means we are going to retest $60k

BITCOIN’S $60K LEVEL SEEN AS LIQUIDATION TRIGGER Bitcoin faces a key test at $60,000, with options and loans suggesting a breach could spark forced selling and sharp volatility. Deribit data shows the largest cluster of put options pays off below $60K, near the 200-week moving average at $58K — a crucial technical support. Loans tied to Bitcoin would automatically liquidate collateral if prices dip, potentially triggering a cascade of deleveraging. Bitcoin traded around $67,000 on Friday, down ~47% from its October peak. Analysts warn a break below $60K could push it toward $50K, where the second-highest put open interest lies. Open interest in $60K puts totals $1.24B. Market sentiment is heavily bearish. Experts say a sustained drop below $60K/$58K could fuel another 20% correction, while any relief rallies remain fragile.

gulp…

People often say that the developing world is poor because the Western world colonized them and stole their resources. The truth, however, is that over the past century, the developing world has, for the most part, shown that they are completely incapable of harnessing their own resources. They are not poor because we stole from them. They are poor because they do not know how to run and administer their own countries, resources be damned. Take Venezuela. The world's largest oil reserves mean nothing if you have a corrupt communist as your leader. People will actually be starving and trying to eat zoo animals while you sit on trillions of dollars in resources! Africa is another example. Europeans left behind farmland, trains, roads, and mines in Africa. What happened to it all? It's not that all of a sudden, the Africans started running things like anti-colonialist activists had envisioned at the time. No, no. All the infrastructure fell into disrepair and/or was stripped down and looted. They were literally handed fully functioning, completed supply chains for resource extraction, and basically unlimited wealth, but they couldn't manage the simple upkeep. Now, the defense for Africa might be that "The Europeans didn't teach the Africans how to manage any of this! It's not the Africans' fault they couldn't run it independently! They were never trained!" But my brother in Christ, the Europeans DID try to train locals for management! Obviously it would have been easier to have at least some locals in administration, rather than having to import an ENTIRE workforce, but efforts to find African talent were largely unsuccessful. Don't believe me? Just look at the different outcomes in Hong Kong and Singapore when compared to Africa. In East Asia, Europeans often did work with locals in administrative and management capacities. When colonialism ended, Hong Kong and Singapore were able to manage themselves. Not the case with Africa. Now, none of this is to say that colonialism is good. People have the right to self-rule and seld-determination. However, the idea that colonialism and resources extraction are responsible for the developing world's ongoing poverty? That is quite simply a crock of shit.

US has now toppled Maduro's regime in Venezuela. Everyone's first thought is: How do I profit off Nation Building in Venezuela? Here's how: 1. Distressed Debt + Bonds ( $ASHM, $HLI, $LAZ ) 2x–3x multiple from "pure play" distressed Venezuelan debt owned by Ashmore $ASHM. They are the largest institutional holders of Venezuelan debt. Bonds trade in the 10–20 cent range (depending on sanctions flux). In a regime change scenario, analysts (Citi, Allianz) est a recovery of 30–55 cents on the dollar. ~2x–3x multiple on book of assets that are marked down. $HLI - IB is the primary financial advisor to the Venezuela Creditor Committee. In sovereign restructurings, the advisors are paid "success fees", and are the "picks and shovels" play for restructuring. $LAZ - sovereign debt restructuring (advised Greece, Ukraine). This firm benefit from the complexity of the deal, and Venezuela's debt stack is arguably the most complex in history. 2. Heavy Crude Transplant ( Paris: TE, $GHM) Technip - Historical architect of Venezuela’s critical infrastructure. The new gov will likely award "no-bid" or "sole-source" service contracts to the OEM to expedite repairs, as bringing in a new firm to reverse-engineer the plants would take years. $GHM - The small-cap industrial firm manufactures the vacuum ejector systems used in refineries and upgraders. To upgrade Venezuela's heavy oil, you must distill it under a vacuum to prevent it from turning into solid coke. 3. Dilutents ( $TRGP ) Before Venezuela can export high volumes of oil, it must import high volumes of diluent (naphtha or natural gasoline) to make the heavy crude flow through pipelines. $TRGP operates the Galena Park Marine Terminal, the primary hub for sending diluents to Venezuela. Reverting to US supplies means Targa’s Galena Park Marine Terminal (a major LPG/Naphtha export hub in Houston) would see an immediate massive spike in volume to displace the Iranian supply. 4. Banking Plays ( Panama: MVZ.A / MVZ.B) Mercantil is a unique anomaly, a Venezuelan bank holding company that listed in Panama and has a US presence (Amerant was spun off, but Mercantil remains). It is the most logical "bridge" for dollarized flows, remittances, and aid money moving from the US/Miami back into a reconstructed Caracas. 5. Energy Sector ( $CVX, $VLO, $PSX) The most obvious beneficiary of regime change and nation building in Venezuela is Chevron $CVX. Unlike other US majors that left, Chevron has maintained a presence in Venezuela. They have the staff, the licenses (via OFAC), and the fields (Petroboscan, Petropiar) ready to ramp up immediately. Gulf Coast Refiners $VLO and $PSX would stand to benefit as well as their Texas and Louisiana refineries were specifically built to process Venezuela's heavy, sour crude. Since sanctions hit, they have had to buy more expensive heavy crude from elsewhere. A flood of Venezuelan oil would drastically lower their feedstock costs, widening their profit margins. Artificial intelligence was one of the most profitable trades in 2025 and moving forward to 2026. Given the unexpected turn of events with a fast regime change, investing in Nation Building from banks to oil processing might become the most profitable trade in 2026.

@elonmusk Is there an independent X chat app?

Switch to 𝕏 Chat. It’s just better!

@elerianm 2025: yea 2026: naa

A one-word challenge for you, please: If you had to pick just one word to describe the global economy in 2025, and one for 2026, what would they be? (FWIW, my picks are resilience for 2025, and dispersion for 2026.) #economy #markets #finance

2025 Performance: Silver: 130% Gold: 65% Copper: 35% Nasdaq: 20% S&P 500: 16% Russell 2000: 13% BTC: -6% ETH: -12% Altcoins: -42% The crypto market is now officially the worst-performing asset in 2025.

BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Banks U.S. Banks are now sitting on $337 Billion in unrealized losses 🤯👀

BREAKING🚨: An ounce of silver is now worth more than a barrel of oil. This has only happened once before.

@DrewPavlou @AlboMP Fking retard. It’s clear as day they were radicalised

So the Islamic terrorists at Bondi weren’t “radicalised”? They were just like this normally then? @AlboMP

@PeterSchiff @saylor He’s doesn’t care and thinks this is a home run. Facts

Why is @Saylor buying more Bitcoin for $MSTR when it’s trading at a discount to the Bitcoin it owns? If he cared about shareholder value he’d sell Bitcoin and buy back stock. That would increase the Bitcoin owned per share. His goal isn't to maximize value but to support Bitcoin.

@saylor Gay

Guess the ₿ank.

@saylor @AtlasHodld You are in big trouble. They are coming for your BTC and they will get them

Fighting the ₿ears

November saw a distinct decoupling of Bitcoin (white line) and gold (blue line). #markets #gold #bitcoin #investors #investing

@jimcramer It’s over

Almost feels like a cabal is trying to keep Bitcoin above $90,000. I like Bitcoin but i do not like any of the derivatives created to play it or game it or mine it.

@altcap I suspect he defines yield as the variance between his average cost price to the current price after each cap raising marked to market. Crazy

“We've also grown BTC yield year after year through disciplined capital raises and immediate conversion into Bitcoin on our balance sheet, reflecting a 26% BTC yield year-to-date." $MSTR Q3-25 earnings call. Silly question - What is the definition of “yield?”

Understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boosts earnings -one of the more common frauds of the modern era. Massively ramping capex through purchase of Nvidia chips/servers on a 2-3 yr product cycle should not result in the extension of useful lives of compute equipment. Yet this is exactly what all the hyperscalers have done. By my estimates they will understate depreciation by $176 billion 2026-2028. By 2028, ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, META by 20.8%, etc. But it gets worse. More detail coming November 25th. Stay tuned.