István J
5.6K posts

István J
@IJocsak
“The things you own end up owning you. It's only after you lose everything that you're free to do anything.”
Katılım Ağustos 2019
1.7K Takip Edilen465 Takipçiler

Epic Fail does not even BEGIN to describe it.
Neo-Caligula can't force a ceasefire.
We are deep into War of Attrition.
Iran will fight to the death.
Or...
Accept Iran's offer:
Lift sanctions.
Pay reparations.
Leave West Asia.
Neo-Caligula though may double down.
Force a naval battle to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
Guaranteed disaster.
Or stage a mock invasion; plant US flags on Iranian soil; and go TACO.
English

Goldman Sachs has projected that silver will trade between $75/oz and $85/oz through much of 2026.
Goldman cites historical volatility patterns and mean reversion. They believe that after the massive price spikes seen in late 2025 and early 2026 (where silver rose over 140% year-over-year), the price is likely to "revert" or settle back toward a more sustainable average rather than continuing a vertical climb.
The firm noted that silver inventories in London have become "dangerously thin." This makes the market react 3–4 times more violently to buy/sell orders than usual. They expect that as supply chains normalize, this "sensitivity" will decrease, leading to a price correction.
At prices significantly above $90–$100, Goldman warns of "demand destruction"—where industries (solar, EVs) might start looking for cheaper alternatives or reducing silver content, pulling the price back down.
Via Stockstoearn on FB
#Gold #Silver

English
István J retweetledi

@DustinWalper @capital_vmv @chamath Japan's largest trading partner is...China. Same goes for South Korea
English

With respect to @chamath, this goes WAY beyond just chips. See the traffic map below.
Ceding control of the Taiwan & Luzon Straits would effectively give China a veto over the economies of Japan and South Korea.
The reason Japan considers it an existential threat is because 90% of its crude oil and 32% of its total trade passes through the South China Sea.
With unfettered access to the Philippine Sea, China would also be in a position to more easily threaten/harass Japan's trading routes with the U.S. and Australia.
Keep in mind that Japan owns about half the industrial robotics market and is a critical alternative to China for everything from machine tools to precision instruments.
Now turn your attention to South Korea, another critical US ally in everything from shipbuilding to electronics.
Roughly 30% of their imports pass through the Taiwan Strait, and almost 90% of the crude oil and the vast majority of its LNG imports travel through the Luzon Strait. Any disruption to its energy imports could threaten the entire South Korean economy.
South Korean semiconductor manufacturers also rely symbiotically on Taiwan, particularly for high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging.
I can't overstate the psychological and trade impacts this would have on American allies and, subsequently, American industry.
If China is able to capture Taiwan easily, history suggests that they will wield this chokepoint to disastrous consequences for the European and North American industrial base.

Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath
Well, then I hope the West uses 2026 to get our 2nm chip processes in shape so that if this happens, we have the option to stay out of it.
English

🏴☠️ If the US attempts to seize Chinese-flagged oil tankers laden with Venezuelan crude, it will correctly be regarded by Beijing as an act of war.
lloydslist.com/LL1155971/Chin…
English

We are all playing Pudgy Pop and we need you on Team Blue!
Join now with my invite link and get bonus sign up POP points.
pudgypop.com/signup?r=jocsa…
English
István J retweetledi

A lot of DMs asking me for another game after @iluvpcs win.. Ok guys, let’s do it! 😁
Guess Bitcoin price as at 31 Dec 2024, 23:59:59 UTC. I will give the person with the closest guess 1 BTC.
The rules are simple:
1. Like, follow me and RT.
2. Comment: My Dec31 Bitcoin Price
English











