idk

@cezthesocialist Oxymoron

when someone says “leftist/liberal”

@TomMcDuffee @ChrisMartzWX The more research I’ve done on the AMOC tipping point, the more that I realise that it won’t lead to the severe cooling that some think it will

@ChrisMartzWX I think when the AMOC reverses it will give climate alarmists the opportunity to declare global cooling is due to human activity. They have to keep the money train rolling.

Most climate “scientists” today seem to think that the temperature of the planet stayed static before 1850, so the answer to your question would be “No.”

ELIMINATED The latest forecast of the IOD is for neutral conditions during Winter. This eliminates the IOD as a factor in the winter forecast. The driver of our winter weather pattern will be the strongly Easterly QBO (top 5 September strength of the past 40 years.) #Winter #wxtwitter #wxX

This new article is... interesting. I'm cautiously optimistic about it. The authors note that while recent economic growth has on one hand worked to offset the Paris Agreement mitigation goals, carbon intensity continues to improve, and thus "the chance of the most catastrophic warming, over 3°C, has gone down". That said, I can't help being skeptical of this 2100 temperature forecast👇 given recent trends in warming acceleration (which implies that we need to take more than simply CO2 into account in forecasting the future Earth Energy Imbalance), and also based on the recent rate of increase in CO2 *concentrations* (which appears to suggest potential carbon feedbacks). The analysis is based on the founding assertion (which is true, to date at least) that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are the predominant driver of global temperature outcomes... I just worry that this rule may not hold for much longer in the future... I sure as hell hope they're right, as it would signal yet again that our fate *is* in our hands, and that runaway warming beyond what the models expected is not occurring.

Today is the 50th Day in a row that the EPS Ensemble continues to forecast a strengthening Polar Vortex beyond the 2 week timeframe. It hasn’t happened yet, and I don’t expect it ever will. The strongly -QBO should prevent the PV from ever getting above normal this year and in combination with La Niña gives a 92% chance of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event this winter. #PolarVortex #PV #Winter #wxtwitter #wxX @PvForecast @judah47

This really is a dirty high. This is the problem with high pressure in autumn & winter, it can end up just being an utter cloudfest.

Planet earth is very sick and it’s our fault. We are destroying the natural world and burning it, this is causing the temperatures to rise and the climate to begin shifting into something today’s life on earth is not evolved for or adapt to quickly enough.

5/6 If the GFS hypothesis prevails, it is very likely that a -NAO/GH regime could be established around November. Unfortunately, a CP la nina is increasingly frequent in recent years at the EP (costal) due to the strong EWB that weaken the upward propagation of the Eddy Momentum

Early winter this year is looking like it’s got better chances of severe cold and snow in the UK

Wait till you see UK weather

Must say, I was just taking a look at some November longer range monthly anomalies. This model sends the high into retrogression, an area of low pressure sent to Scandi... its a recipe of success for cold lovers. Could it be cold November time once again?

The CS3 seasonal forecasts were updated today and (I believe this is GLOSEA) shows a generally below average polar vortex over the Arctic through the first part of winter.

If this was November we might be looking at our first cold spell... unfortunately, it's a GFS 300h+ chart for 23rd of October. Patience, cold fans!

Icon 12z actually retrogresses the high towards Greenland and brings down a cooler/colder north/north-easterly wind around the high. -5C isotherm into northern Scotland. Dry outlook remains the common theme here!

@Met4CastUK What website did you get this graph from?

PERIOD OF INTEREST: 15th - 30th November The latest CFS has strengthened the signal for the MJO through November as it pushes east. This increases the likelihood of blocked & colder patterns later in November. The cold chase has begun! ❄️

@ballyvooney @TWOweather It depends a lot. You can’t really figure it out at this stage. Fingers crossed for the cold wind!!

@TWOweather Would that be a cold wind or just bring mild murk? I would love sunshine to brighten up these darker and gloomy days.

📈 Increasing chance of a mid-month easterly flow — latest signals here: #rep41" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">theweatheroutlook.com/signal#rep41

The latest CFS is doubling down on the late October > early November MJO wave. This could set in motion a chain of events which leads to blocked / colder patterns mid-late November. Eyes are peeled.

The CFS has been keen on a more robust MJO wave propagating eastwards into the CPAC late October > early November.  This transition east through the maritimes will likely drive AAM tendency positive for the first time in a while, this coupled with the MJO cycling round into more “favourable” phases could give us the first chance of a colder spell of weather during the second half of November.  Now, granted this is the long-range CFS but we’re starting to see signs of that cycle beginning from the GFS too with a significant increase in westerlies over the Indian Ocean later this month. (2nd image) The caveat being we are dealing with the ultra long-range time frame here and modelling can often be too quick or too strong with the MJO at longer lead times but certainly something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks, plenty of other variables (that are not as predictable) to resolve too. The first tangible sign of winter is now within scope of modelling..