Iris
53 posts

Iris
@Intotheiris_609
Senior engineer turnt analyst, covering semiconductor and space at a long only fund. Don't take it too serious..


$ASTS keep in mind that it normally takes a week or so on average to form the bottom. What we're seeing today is the first rebound off an extreme low and often is followed with more choppiness before reclaiming key moving averages *NFA


$AXTI shares are down ~30% after a below-expectations pre-announcement of earnings, but the prior earnings do not change the thesis around InP shortages. I have initiated a position. AXT is one of the few pure-play suppliers of indium phosphide (InP) substrates, a critical material for high-speed optical communications, silicon photonics, and AI datacenter interconnects, and InP supply constraints are emerging as a structural bottleneck in the AI build-out. If demand for InP remains tight and the company’s role in easing that bottleneck stays intact, the fundamental thesis remains unchanged. For investors with a long horizon and conviction in optical/AI infrastructure demand, this sell-off may present an entry point. cc: @aleabitoreddit


[DigiTimes]: China approves first exports of Indium Phosphide (InP) substrate in 2026 which should help alleviate bottlenecks in the optical communications market. Very bullish development for $AXTI digitimes.com.tw/tech/dt/n/shwn…

$VELO: The Department of Defense sleeper stock

Great, sold at the top and it had a hard selloff 😄 The reason is simple it doesn’t make any sense for spx to rush to 7500 before cpi print. If SPX can reclaim 21d EMA , it’d be great and already beyond my expectations!



$PL down 8% at the moment after another record quarter, a double beat, a gross profit margin beat, and raised guidance. Won't be surprised if the stock is up tomorrow. This is what I learned from the earnings transcript, looking forward to the earnings call in about an hour. On top-line growth and backlog: A massive beat on revenue at $94.2M (up 42% YoY), blowing past the $90M consensus. The backlog is now over $906M (up 72% YoY), providing incredible visibility. They are clearly executing well on converting that pipeline. On the bottom line: Q1 non-GAAP EPS came in at ($0.03), right in line with expectations. Adjusted EBITDA loss was minimal at ($1.0M). Crucially, the massive ($138.9M) GAAP net loss was heavily skewed by a ($106.5M) revaluation loss on warrant liabilities due to the stock price running up—and since they redeemed those public warrants, this noise won't happen in future quarters. On margins: Q1 non-GAAP gross margin hit 56%, beating the 49-51% guidance they had previously set. On European/Sovereign momentum: The demand continues to surge. They signed an 8-figure deal with an international Defense & Intelligence customer, plus 7-figure deals with the Greek Government and the Czech Republic. The defense and intelligence floor is strong. On next-gen fleet deployment: Huge news here. They successfully launched 3 Pelican satellites, including Sweden's sovereign reconnaissance satellite, just 4 months after contract signing. Pelican-11 is also shipped and ready for the upcoming Transporter-17 mission. On cash and runway: Healthy balance sheet confirmed. They ended the quarter with $731M in cash and short-term investments (up 223% YoY, aided by the $108M from warrant exercises). Free cash flow was slightly negative at ($2.5M), but they have an immense runway to fund growth. On forward guidance: Raised significantly. Q2 revenue is guided at $102M -$107M, and full-year FY27 revenue is raised to $425M -$441M. They are still targeting positive adjusted EBITDA of $0-$10M for the full year with non-GAAP gross margins expanding to 52-54%.


















