InvestorM
1.8K posts

InvestorM
@InvestorMMM
Dice. Crypto. Tulips.
Texas Katılım Haziran 2010
1.3K Takip Edilen257 Takipçiler

Options market is whispering something most people aren't hearing.
Near-term implied vol at 14.56. Three-month implied vol at 20.35. That's one of the widest term structure gaps I've seen this year.
Translation: the tape feels calm today, but the market is pricing a potential explosion within weeks.
The catalyst is obvious. PPI drops Wednesday May 13 with crude screaming near $98/barrel. Good luck printing a soft number with energy doing that.
30Y yield at 4.97%. Three basis points from the 5% line that breaks every complacency trade running.
I think $VIX sees 20+ by end of next week. The variance risk premium at the 76th percentile doesn't stay this wide without resolving, and the resolution skews ugly with crude where it is.
Premium sellers have been feasting for weeks. Wednesday's when they find out if it was alpha or just picking up pennies.
Where are you positioned heading into PPI?
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@texasrunnerDFW Remember - it's not a real "market"...it's a industry engineered system that must drift/go up...
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@MaryBowdenMD I'll be selling Iversmectin - just like the OG - the smorans will love it.
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@assface_burner Just waiting for the right people to position...I'm holding longs until AUG 31 - or 0.
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@dontbsalti @MartinShkreli I have a friend like this.. impulse control issues, and yet strong intellect....people like this chill out as they age...
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@JimWright4Texas Go out...get a Muslim friend...support freedom of religion.
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Like every Texan, I am deeply concerned about the alarming Islamification of Texas. I fully expect the Texas Legislature to make this issue a priority in the upcoming session.
But the Texas Railroad Commission, the agency charged with regulating the oil and gas industry, has no authority to make any policy that would affect this issue. French seems unaware that the Texas oil and gas industry is strictly governed by the laws of the State of Texas and of the United States – not by Sharia law or any laws or rulings from the State of Delaware.
Bo is also confused about the constitutional authority of the position he is seeking and the work of the Railroad Commission. He seems to think he is running for the State Legislature.
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@DallasXCEO Yeah...I'm pretty sure you are a light weight pretty boy - and fighting a crack head wouldn't go well for you...move to the burbs if you can't handle city problems.
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My second incident in the last week tonight. I was walking down Jefferson on the south end of Bishop Arts after a lovely Mexican dinner.
A crack head asked me for a cigarette. When I politely explained I don't smoke and calmly walked by he comes up behind me and grabbed my shoulder aggressively and squeezed until I shook him off.
For a split second I considered wheeling around and knocking him out. There was a fire truck working an active scene on the other side of the block so I just kept walking.
But I decided tonight that will be the last time.
Last week it was the cracked out woman who chased me after I respectfully declined to give her money (didn't even have any) outside a 7-11. She dropped her drawers in my headlights as she was blocking my truck as I was trying to leave.
We DON'T have to live like this.
Don't know about you all but I'm done pretending this nonsense is okay and we're just supposed to tolerate it.
The very next time one of these zombies touches or threatens me I will be the headline story myself on @DallasExpress after I cap them.
Real Texas Radio Podcast@RTR_bronin
I walked all around Oak Lawn and Turtle Creek Park in Dallas today. Homeless everywhere. Watched a Mercedes come very close to striking two jaywalking methheads. Begging, panhandling, screaming, camping, trashing. Where is the highly paid millionaire org Housing Forward?
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@blondebroker1 I don't believe this for a second...we tried to escort ships through but couldn't safely...but who knows..there is no real news anymore...
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Get in a #Tesla.
Take your hands off the wheel.
Let it drive.
Now sit there and process what just happened…
And then tell me that $TSLA stock is overvalued.
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@blondebroker1 I see you...I respectfully request a retest for 7000 SPX in the next 14 days...
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@blondebroker1 Meta earnings will just get you zucked...it's on the do not trade list...
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@KobeissiLetter All the way back before you could even finish the tweet...crazy market...I guess with oil dropping n all...
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🚨🧵MAJOR BREAKING : Today, the Department of Justice indicted former FBI Director James Comey for posting a picture of seashells.
I want you to read that sentence one more time.
The Department of Justice of the United States has filed two felony charges, each carrying a maximum of ten years in federal prison, over a photograph of shells arranged on a beach.
Here is what happened.
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@HormuzLetter @DeItaone From Business Association Risk Reward On Now..otherwise known as Barron...
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@amitisinvesting I have questions about the product offering from OpenAI vs Anthropic, the latter seems to offer a superior product each release, where OpenAI just claims to be better - but I don't see it when using Codex vs Opus....
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Stocks are down big this morning on a WSJ report that OpenAI missed internal revenue targets at the end of 2025.
Few thoughts on why this might not be as bad as it is being interpreted:
- Part of the reason OpenAI did not meet its revenue backlog is because they did not have the proper compute needs. Jassy, Dario, and Altman have all said if they have more compute, they could grow faster. The bottleneck of energy/power/land seems to be a much bigger story than “missing revenue targets” because if the compute constrains are the reason for the miss, that’s an issue with supply, not demand.
- Maybe OpenAI missed internal forecasts because of $GOOGL and Anthropic seriously beginning to take marketshare. If that is true, that is NOT bearish semis/ai, that is more bearish OpenAI. The compute will just shift from OpenAI spending to Anthropic and Google spending. So, if OpenAI cancels a datacenter, it’s bad for the parties involved but if Google ends up taking up that datacenter, the same money continues to be spent on all the different providers that go into building out that compute.
- $SOXX just did 18 green days in a row. It was looking for ANY reason to sell off. Obviously some names have just gotten way ahead of themselves, for example $ARM, which began to trade at 70 p/s. The WSJ article may have been what was needed to give a reason to a selloff which quite frankly did not need a reason after the run it’s had.
Overall, feels more like a general headline about a company not fully living up to its expectations vs a systematic issue around compute constraints.
Big Tech reports on Wednesday and all eyes will be on what they have to say around capex, roi, growth, and more.
$NVDA $AMD $MSFT $META $ORCL

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