IronTri99

Morgan Stanley has again raised its capex forecasts for the five hyperscalers Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle. It now expects them to spend about $805bn this year, up from a previous estimate of $765bn. For next year, the forecast has been lifted from $951bn to $1.1TRILLION. To put that into perspective, their 2026 spending alone would be roughly equal to what all non-tech companies in the S&P 500 spent combined in 2025. The expected ~$800bn for 2026 is nearly double 2025 levels and about three times what was spent in 2024.

I have changed my mind on how AI will impact jobs in America. Previously, I believed AI would replace many entry level roles typically filled by young employees. The technology would then work its way up the organization and eventually reduce the total number of jobs in a company. The data is saying something different, so when I get new information I am willing to change my mind. The number of software engineers being hired has been increasing. The number of open software engineer roles is growing. The number of new college grads who get hired has increased 5.6% over the last 12 months. The unemployment level for people aged 20-24 years old who have a college degree has fallen from nearly 9% to almost 5% as well. The Wall Street Journal recently wrote “AI created 640,000 jobs between 2023 and 2025 in the U.S., according to an analysis by LinkedIn of job posting data, including new white-collar positions such as Head of AI and AI engineer.” And I am starting to see companies throughout our portfolio aggressively hiring to keep up with the demand for their products and services. If AI can make employees more productive, which is widely accepted as fact, then companies are going to want as many productive units of labor as possible. This is a key reason why I am changing my mind. AI appears to be a magical technology that will make companies more productive and more profitable. The net result will be more corporations, more startups, and more jobs. All three are big, positive wins for the American economy.

⚡️The real signal is that a city that produces a meaningful fraction of global financial output just elected someone running explicitly on taking property from the people who produce it. This is not a protest vote. This is the coalition stating its actual preferences. The preferences are incoherent with the city continuing to function as a financial center. One of those two things is going to give. The city is going to stop being a financial center, or the coalition is going to be politically defeated, or Mamdani is going to govern nothing like he campaigned. The third option is the most likely because it’s the standard pattern, but the first two are live. The actual structural situation in New York: the top 1% of filers pay roughly half the city’s income tax. The top 10% pay around 75%. The math is that a small number of high earners subsidize services for everyone else, and the subsidy is what makes the city livable for the people who aren’t high earners. When those earners leave, the subsidy leaves with them, and the services they were funding get cut or the taxes on the remaining population rise. There is no version where you tax the rich into staying. They have options. The options are better now than they were five years ago and will be better in five years than they are now. Every marginal tax increase moves the departure math. Mamdani’s voters believe the rich will pay more and stay. This is empirically false and has been for decades. The Laffer curve is a caricature but the underlying phenomenon is real at the state and city level because the substitution cost is low. You don’t need to emigrate. You need to move to Connecticut, Florida, Texas, or Tennessee. Millions of people have done this. The pattern is documented, measured, and predictable. Pretending otherwise is the policy equivalent of pretending gravity is optional. The deeper thing Mamdani’s election reveals: a substantial fraction of urban voters now hold a worldview in which productive activity is theft, wealth is evidence of extraction, and redistribution is the primary function of politics. This worldview has specific intellectual lineage running from certain strains of Marxism through the academic left through social media radicalization. It’s not a serious economic framework. It’s a moral framework dressed as an economic one. The moral intuition is that inequality is itself the injustice, regardless of how the inequality arose or what it produces. A serious economic framework would ask whether the inequality produces good outcomes for the median person, would note that high-productivity cities produce enormous surplus that funds services, and would balance extraction against the ecosystem that generates the wealth to be extracted. The Mamdani framework skips all of that and goes straight to: they have it, we want it, take it. This framework, when operationalized, destroys the thing it feeds on. Every case study confirms this. No case study contradicts it. The cases where redistribution worked, Scandinavia in the twentieth century, post-war West Germany, Singapore, involved redistributing from productive economies that were allowed to stay productive. The redistribution was moderate, rule-bound, and applied to a capital base that couldn’t easily flee because international capital mobility was constrained. None of those conditions hold in New York in 2026. Capital mobility is near-frictionless for the high end. Rule-bound redistribution is not what Mamdani campaigned on. The ideological content is much closer to expropriation than to Nordic social democracy. The broader United States pattern is that this dynamic is concentrated in the cities that already had it, and those cities are where the productive economy is also concentrated. The country has decoupled into two economic models. One model, roughly blue-state urban, runs on high-productivity services, high taxes, high housing costs, declining quality of services relative to what’s paid for them, and increasingly extractive politics. The other model, roughly red-state urban and suburban, runs on lower productivity but faster growth, lower taxes, lower housing costs, and more functional services. The sorting between the two is accelerating. People and capital are moving from the first to the second at historically significant rates. The first model is not reforming because its political coalition is locked in by the voters who benefit from the extractive politics in the short term. The second model is not free of problems but is currently winning the migration competition by large margins.

I try and eat kimchi everyday. Also, I HATE kimchi…..is there any other fermented food that tastes better?