Martin Cole (FIE)

I was born in 1944 and believe that starting with PM Attlee dreadful things have been underway in the UK reaching a peak with Edward Heath, to Theresa May and Boris Johnson. IMHO the USA nurturing and conniving in the placing of a prominent German National Socialist as 1st European Commission President contributed to a Europe's similar decline . No improvement from that plateau of awfulness seems in sight nor has yet occurred.

You may enjoy this old video. Gulf Oil built the fist six Mammoths over 325,000 Dwt. Planned 2 months apart from Sea Island Kuwait to Bantry Bay. Not quite how things developed as I had to programme them to Europe's refineries. Post Hormuz looks like a looming similar scheduling fiasco ;) youtu.be/yAFMgt4FeK0?si…

BREAKING: Iran strongly rejects US officials' claims that a direct communication line between Iran and the US over the Strait of Hormuz has been established, calling it "a complete lie" that "has not happened and will not happen," asserting that "the Strait of Hormuz is Iranian territory and has no connection with the United States," per Fars. Iran also declares there is "absolutely no way to return the Strait of Hormuz to its pre-war status."

Patrick Henningsen: This is NOT 2006: The New Phase of the Hezbollah-IDF... youtu.be/WyfWNcYORCU?si… via @YouTube

Fascinating detail, many thanks. One wonders as events unfold will the old dhow slave trading glutes emerge as a prime spot for VLCC oil transshipments, offering different sourced crude qualities from one point. Prices quoted FOB Zanzibar has a nostalgic ring, reducing shipment time to Europe and flexibility as East or West as prices swing

HORMUZ | VIP SHUTTLE for Persian Gulf barrels 1 | The franchise started by Sinokor, who charters vessels at premium rates to do Hormuz runs. Roundtrip takes ~5 days, your bbls are ready for pick up in Fujairah. Replicated by turkish and greek ship-owners.

How thoroughly decent of him. He pays tax on Duchy of Lancaster money in effect handed to him by the state (taxpayers) which the taxpayers then hand back plus far more in the form of £100 million in the mega-increased Sovereign Grant. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Britain's biggest state benefits family ... they are taking the piss.

Rebound yes, but not normalizing. @anasalhajji had an interesting explanation why the Persian Gulf inbound traffic remains limited for a while: According to Anas, the main reason for limited inbound traffic to the Gulf is NOT Iran limiting traffic through the Hormuz. There simply aren't enough ships available now. Ships that rerouted to go elsewhere from the Gulf because of the Hormuz crisis take up to 2 months to finish their current assignments before they can think of going back to the Gulf. Two months is exactly the time when Iran and USA are supposed to finalize a deal together. If everything goes as planned, then most of the energy crisis will have been averted. If however ships now dedicate to reroute back to the Gulf and somehow the deal breaks apart (in the final hours) and Hormuz becomes restricted again, those same ships will again have to spend weeks and months of finding assignments elsewhere and we will see a deeper logistical crisis because of the current lower energy inventories. Imagine being a shipper weighing on the risk and benefit of rerouting to the Gulf or simply continue work traveling through other routes. That's why there's now a big premium price for ships to reroute to the Gulf. #oott #oil

UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed received a phone call from Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi; UAE minister emphasized importance of full compliance with the provisions of the MoU signed between US and Iran

*OMAN WARNED EUROPEAN ALLIES SHIP FEES LIKELY NEEDED FOR HORMUZ

IRAN STATE TV: THREE FOREIGN TANKERS ATTEMPTING AN 'UNAUTHORIZED' PASSAGE OF STRAIT OF HORMUZ TURNED BACK AFTER WARNING BY IRGC NAVY

🔴 11 EU states seek 3-year delay on methane rules, citing energy security Czech Republic and Slovakia leading the bloc's push to postpone enforcement of the EU's methane regulations, adopted May 2024, arguing that strict compliance could limit gas supplies and raise costs as importers lock in long-term contracts for 2027 delivery. The 11 countries want the European Commission to delay "by at least three years" key provisions of the law, which requires measuring, reporting, and verifying methane emissions across the energy sector.

🇺🇸⚔️🇪🇺❗️US Threatens Europe with Loss of LNG Supplies, Demands Regulatory Changes If the EU does not relax its methane emissions control rules, US gas will be diverted to other markets, stated US Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Starting in 2027, Brussels will require exporters to report emissions in accordance with standards mirroring the bloc's internal regulations. Since moving away from Russian gas, Washington has come to supply a quarter of Europe's gas imports. Baltnews

Recent investigations by journalists show that Starmer was never going to be the kind of prime minister who could show moral courage or independence of spirit. In fact, they reveal that Starmer was never in charge of his own party or government. According to his closest advisors, he has largely been a hologram leader. In a memorable quote, one described Starmer to journalists in withering terms: “He thinks he’s driving the train, but we’ve sat him at the front of the DLR” – a reference to the driverless Docklands Light Railway in London. So if Starmer was never running the show, who was? Investigative journalist Paul Holden’s recent book The Fraud disclosed that Starmer was the creature of a shadowy think tank called Labour Together, set up during Corbyn’s tenure as leader. In secret, and in breach of electoral laws, it amassed a giant slush fund – some £800,000 – from wealthy benefactors, including more than half of the money from a prominent pro-Israel lobbyist, Sir Trevor Chinn. Labour Together's early tasks included feeding the media endless smears associating Corbyn’s Labour party with antisemitism. The aim was to replace him with a pliant novice who could be coached into telling party members what they wanted to hear but ignore their wishes once elected leader. Starmer was Labour Together’s choice. He was an empty vessel through which hidden actors could exert their control over the party in the interests of wealthy donors. Before the 2024 election, Labour Together would handpick and fund more than 100 candidates it parachuted into seats to bolster its grip on the party. For much of this time, the think tank was led by Morgan McSweeney, who would go on to become Starmer’s chief of staff. McSweeney was himself a protege of Peter Mandelson, the key architect of Tony Blair’s Big Business-friendly New Labour. McSweeney insisted, apparently against the advice of the security services, that Mandelson should be Starmer’s ambassador to the US. That decision would seal first McSweeney’s fate and then Starmer’s as it emerged that both knew at the time of his appointment that Mandelson was a close friend of the serial sex predator Jeffrey Epstein. It was yet another sleazy episode in Starmer’s short political career – and one, along with his complicity in the Gaza genocide, that pundits mostly preferred to gloss over this week in their assessments of his two-year tenure as prime minister. Why? Because were the threads of the Labour Together scandal to unravel further, they would lead beyond the tawdry, crooked Starmer project to the role the establishment media played in destroying Corbyn and puffing up Starmer, all to eradicate the threat of a mildly socialist programme curtailing the privileges of the Epstein class. This is an extract from my latest article Burnham must break with Starmer's dishonest politics. Find a link to the rest of the article in the reply post ⬇️

[EXCLUSIVE] COL. Doug Macgregor : Judgment Day for Trump's War. Does ... youtube.com/live/wAV0xMapy… via @YouTube

Key Kazakh Field Cuts Oil Output as Drones Hit Russian Plant

Capital Comes Home (Analysis) The cheap oil everyone is cheering is quietly draining a four-trillion-dollar buyer out of your portfolio. That is this whole post. Here is why. Saudi Arabia needs Brent near 96 to balance its budget, and that is the soft number. Load in what its sovereign fund and its military really spend, and Goldman says 108 to 111. Brent is 80. Goldman sees 50 by December. The kingdom is selling oil 20, 30 bucks under what it needs, into a glut the IEA pegs at four million barrels a day. Q1 was the biggest quarterly deficit in Saudi history. 33.5 billion dollars. That one quarter ate 76 percent of the deficit they budgeted for the entire year. Deficits every year since 2022. Biggest emerging-market borrower on the planet now. The debt load is still light at 38 percent of GDP, and nobody is going bust. Forget solvency. Watch behavior. A government borrowing to cover payroll is not bidding on your stocks. It is selling its own. For ten years, the Gulf funds were the buyer of last resort for half of what you hold. PIF, ADIA, Kuwait, Qatar, Mubadala, north of four trilllion dollars between them, oil money poured into US tech, private equity, AI data centers, Heathrow, Newcastle, the PGA. When nobody else showed up to bid, they did. Rome, three days ago. The man running Saudi's trillion-dollar fund says it flat out. Bring the world back to Saudi. Money staying home goes to 80 percent, the foreign slice cut to 20 from 30. PIF already gutted spending across its portfolio, knifed construction awards by 60 percent, ran its cash down to 15 billion, lowest since 2020. The fund that propped your market is patching a hole in Riyadh. And it gets worse because of how they respond. Oil below break-even does not make the Gulf pump less. It makes them pump more. Volume is the only lever left when price is killing you. Every extra million barrels a day is worth 3.2 percent of GDP to Riyadh, says the IMF. So they flood it, the price sinks again, the hole gets deeper, and more money sails home. Cheap oil eats itself out here. I watch this from Istanbul, a city that got fat for five centuries taxing other people's trade. The lesson that never dies here: rentier money looks permanent until the toll dries up, and then they sell everything the toll built. This is a rerun. 2014, shale drowns the market, oil caves. Saudi reserves drop from 732 billion to 536 in eighteen months. The 2015 deficit runs near 100 billion. 2016, they sell their first international bond, 17.5 billion, biggest emerging-market deal ever done at the time, and that April a young deputy crown prince rolls out Vision 2030 to kick the oil habit. The entire thing the world calls Saudi ambition was a panic response to oil under break-even. Same setup now. Except this time, Vision 2030 is what is getting cut, NEOM and its 500 billion dollars quietly going in the ground. Push back at me. Reserves are still 475 billion, debt is cheap, the riyal peg has eaten every oil crash since 1986. Nothing blows up Friday. I know. Devaluation is not the call. The call is slower and meaner. Four trillion dollars rotating from buying the world to feeding itself, exactly when the AI buildout and private credit are starving for that kind of money. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀. Break-even 96 IMF, 108 to 111 all-in. Brent 80, sliding. Q1 deficit 33.5 billion, a record, 76 percent of the year torched in three months. Biggest emerging-market sovereign borrower there is. PIF 80 percent home, foreign cut to 20 from 30, cash down to 15 billion. 2014 to 2016, reserves 732 to 536, first bond 17.5 billion, Vision 2030 born in the wreckage. 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝘆 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴: oil vol and the back of the curve. The glut plus the pump-to-survive reflex caps any spike a flare-up throws off. Long Gulf credit spreads widening on Treasuries. Long the dollar against the tired idea that petrodollars always wash back into it. 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝘁𝗼𝘂𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 Brent on the peace-reopening trade, Gulf equity still priced for the giga-project years, or any model treating Gulf funds as a permanent bid under US tech. 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝘆𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁: Brent under 70 by year-end, Saudi 2026 deficit blowing past the official 3.3 percent, another PIF cut this year. Look at your book and ask who was bidding next to you. For ten years, a real slug of the money under US tech, under private equity, under every AI buildout people are piling into, was Gulf oil cash looking for a home. It is going home. The cheap oil in the headlines is the same price pulling the buyer out from under you. He turns seller, and you find out how much of the bid was just him. Tell me where I'm wrong. 𝘿𝙞𝙨𝙘𝙡𝙤𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙚. 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙫𝙞𝙨𝙪𝙖𝙡 𝙖𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙩𝙨, 𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙨, 𝙨𝙘𝙝𝙚𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙘 𝙙𝙞𝙖𝙜𝙧𝙖𝙢𝙨, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙥𝙖𝙩𝙘𝙝 𝙙𝙚𝙨𝙞𝙜𝙣 𝙞𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙖𝙡𝙮𝙨𝙞𝙨 𝙬𝙚𝙧𝙚 𝙜𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙬𝙞𝙩𝙝 𝘼𝙄 𝙩𝙤𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙨𝙤𝙡𝙚𝙡𝙮 𝙩𝙤 𝙚𝙣𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙚 𝙧𝙖𝙥𝙞𝙙 𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙖 𝙫𝙞𝙨𝙪𝙖𝙡𝙞𝙯𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙤 𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙞𝙖𝙡 𝙙𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙚. 𝘼𝙡𝙡 𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙚𝙖𝙧𝙘𝙝, 𝙖𝙣𝙖𝙡𝙮𝙩𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙡 𝙛𝙧𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙬𝙤𝙧𝙠, 𝙨𝙤𝙪𝙧𝙘𝙚 𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙞𝙛𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣, 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙩𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣, 𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙞𝙖𝙡 𝙟𝙪𝙙𝙜𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩, 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙙𝙚 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙘𝙡𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙥𝙚𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙡𝙮 𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙚. 𝙀𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙮 𝙙𝙖𝙩𝙖 𝙥𝙤𝙞𝙣𝙩 𝙧𝙚𝙛𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙙 𝙞𝙨 𝙘𝙧𝙤𝙨𝙨-𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙞𝙛𝙞𝙚𝙙 𝙖𝙜𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙨𝙩 𝙢𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙞𝙥𝙡𝙚 𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙥𝙚𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙡𝙞𝙫𝙚 𝙨𝙤𝙪𝙧𝙘𝙚𝙨 𝙥𝙧𝙞𝙤𝙧 𝙩𝙤 𝙥𝙪𝙗𝙡𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣. 𝘼𝙣𝙮 𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙘𝙘𝙪𝙧𝙖𝙘𝙞𝙚𝙨, 𝙞𝙛 𝙛𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙙, 𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙚 𝙩𝙤 𝙤𝙬𝙣 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙘𝙤𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙩. 𝙏𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙥𝙖𝙩𝙘𝙝 𝙞𝙨 𝙉𝙊𝙏 𝙁𝙄𝙉𝘼𝙉𝘾𝙄𝘼𝙇 𝘼𝘿𝙑𝙄𝘾𝙀. 𝙎𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙚𝙧 𝙎𝙝𝙖𝙝𝙯𝙖𝙙 𝘚𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘤𝘦𝘴: 𝘐𝘔𝘍, 𝘎𝘰𝘭𝘥𝘮𝘢𝘯 𝘚𝘢𝘤𝘩𝘴 (𝘣𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘬-𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯, 𝘥𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘵); 𝘉𝘭𝘰𝘰𝘮𝘣𝘦𝘳𝘨, 𝘞𝘰𝘳𝘭𝘥 𝘖𝘪𝘭, 𝘈𝘎𝘉𝘐 (𝘰𝘪𝘭, 𝘣𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘬-𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯, 𝘣𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨); 𝘚𝘢𝘶𝘥𝘪 𝘔𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘍𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘷𝘪𝘢 𝘎𝘶𝘭𝘧 𝘕𝘦𝘸𝘴 (𝘘𝟣 𝘥𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘪𝘵); 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘶𝘯𝘦, 𝘗𝘐𝘍 (𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝟪𝟢/𝟤𝟢 𝘱𝘪𝘷𝘰𝘵, 𝘈𝘭-𝘙𝘶𝘮𝘢𝘺𝘺𝘢𝘯); 𝘔𝘪𝘥𝘥𝘭𝘦 𝘌𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘉𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘚𝘞𝘍 𝘐𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘵𝘦 (𝘗𝘐𝘍 𝘤𝘶𝘵𝘴, 𝘈𝘜𝘔); 𝘐𝘌𝘈, 𝘌𝘐𝘈 (𝘨𝘭𝘶𝘵, 𝘥𝘦𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘥); 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘮𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘦𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘳𝘥𝘴 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝟤𝟢𝟣𝟦 𝘵𝘰 𝟤𝟢𝟣𝟨 𝘤𝘳𝘢𝘴𝘩, 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝟣𝟩.𝟧 𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘣𝘰𝘯𝘥, 𝘝𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝟤𝟢𝟥0.

The world's biggest oil exporter just turned the taps back on. Saudi Aramco resumed loading at Ras Tanura after a 4 month halt, and a supply flood is coming. 2 VLCCs are loading crude at Ras Tanura, the world's largest oil port, with a 3rd waiting nearby. Each VLCC carries 2 million barrels. Saudi was one of the last Gulf producers to restart from inside the strait. The scale of the recovery is fast. Rystad says shut-in Gulf supply fell to 9.6 mbpd in mid-June, from 11.7 mbpd just three weeks earlier. "2 million barrels a day came back online in 3 weeks," Rystad noted. Full recovery is expected by year-end. And everyone is rushing at once. Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE are all offering crude via tender. Iran is racing too. 2 empty VLCCs entered the Gulf Friday to load Iranian oil after sanctions were lifted. The price reaction is immediate. Crude fell more than $1 Friday as the supply wave builds. Saudi may now cut August prices sharply as producers fight for buyers. But the risk hasn't vanished. A ship was hit in Hormuz Thursday, and the UK navy paused its escort operation. The tension is set. Surging supply pulling prices down, against a fragile deal that one attack could unravel. Sources: Reuters

Quote from the full Article "NATO’s first Secretary General, Lord Ismay, famously noted that the mission of NATO was “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.” Today we see a NATO where the Americans are leaving, the Germans are resurgent, and the Russians are being compelled, against their will, to engage in direct confrontation with a NATO that is actively seeking war with Russia by the end of the decade." Some in Europe apparently believe that Drones may bring success so ignoring the new Russian nuclear policies! Horrifying Stupidity for ZERO Gain IMHO. NATO DISSOLUTION IN Ankara seems a better option.

@Blackintus The timing of tanker deliveries to markets will prove crucial to pricing of cargoes later deliverable to oil routed via the Cape of Good Hope to Northern Europe presuming Hormuz is still open when ballasted vessels from Asia return empty it seems to me.

🔴 BREAKING — This is a genuine structural shift threatening the entire energy-bull thesis we’ve built all month. Iraq, the world’s sixth-largest crude producer, is threatening to follow the UAE out of OPEC if it isn’t allowed to produce more freely — the UAE formally exited on May 1. Mizuho’s Robert Yawger warns that if departing members start maximizing production and dumping it on the market, oil could fall below $50/barrel, a level unseen since COVID — a dramatic move down from Brent’s March peak above $115 and its current ~$75. The deeper read: OPEC was effectively “obsolete” during the four-month Iran war because most members couldn’t move barrels to market at all, with the US stepping into the role of key global swing producer instead. That dynamic exposed exactly the vulnerability driving today’s defections — Gulf states need cash to repair war-damaged infrastructure and want to exploit their oil reserves on their own timeline rather than under OPEC quotas. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, retains genuine market power through its spare capacity (able to add 2 million+ barrels quickly), but a shrinking cartel membership means remaining countries face a stark choice: produce more themselves, or cede market share to the UAE and potentially Iraq. 💰 YOUR MOVE: This is a real threat to the entire restocking/structural-demand bull case from tweets 167 and 334 — if OPEC fragmentation accelerates and Iraq actually exits, the resulting production race could overwhelm the post-war demand recovery and crater prices well below the “$75-80 new floor” thesis several of this month’s posts assumed. Worth treating this as a genuine tail risk for energy-sector longs ($XOM , $CVX , $COP from tweet 329’s contrarian case) — a sub-$50 oil environment would be devastating for producer free cash flow even with higher volumes, since per-barrel economics matter more than total barrels sold. Watch whether Saudi Arabia responds to Iraq’s threat with concessions (looser quotas) or doubles down on cartel discipline; either path has very different implications for how fast this fragmentation actually plays out into 2026 production data. @Blackintus

@aeberman12 @anasalhajji Small correction: Anas never said oil LEAVING Hormuz. 30 mln bbl of Iranian oil was already outside. This is a one-off event. Most oil leaving Hormuz is UAE now. So much for “one sided opening”? x.com/lvision_tradin…

BREAKING: South Korea’s stock market has been halted limit down after falling over -8%.

Who was actually in control of our Covid pandemic response ? Was it Matt Hancock or Bill Gates ? Or was it the then Chancellor and secret Moderna investor Rishi Sunak ? Was Partygate PM Boris Johnson in running the show? Please let me know what you think in the comments