Jake Grossman

@ScottBarrettDFB @FantasyKash Some of us knew...

@FantasyKash Damn. Way to go Tice. You have a link or anything from him heading into the year?

Very good thread here. Basically agree with all of it. The only mild pushback I’d give are: - Some were on Mendoza before this year (Tice) - Penn State game would be example of him trailing and coming back

2nd & 10 dropback rate was just under 60% in 2017. by 2024 it had jumped up to 66.9% and took an even bigger jump in 2025 to 69.2% this is despite the bias that offenses are more likely to run after an incomplete pass on 1st & 10. the league has definitely become sharper on 2nd & 10 play calls though

Implied probabilities of the position of a team's first drafted player using odds from @DKSportsbook

Going live Thursday March 19 for Shayne Graham’s Extra Points with Ryan Walsh at 7PM EST on 94.9 FM in Grand Rapids, 98.9 FM in Plainwell, 99.5 FM in Lowell, 105.1 FM in Kalamazoo, 980 AM in Otsego, and worldwide on Jethro.fm and will be available on all major podcast platforms.   7:00 - Big G and Ryan kick off @Shaynegraham17 is on the road this week so Big G and Ryan will kick off the show and celebrate let’s laugh day.   7:15 - Analytics Analysis - Jake Grossman - Michigan Sports Analytics Podcast Friend of the show @JakeGrossman0 joins us to talk over the contract side of the Lions offseason thus far from an analytics standpoint.   7:45 - Declassified Series - Richard Harvey - Former NFL Player Former NFL linebacker Richard Harvey joins the show to talk about his NFL career and what he’s been up to afterwards. 8:15 - Lions Analysis - Richard Silva - Detroit News Friend of the show @rich_silva18 joins us to give us his thoughts on the Lions offseason so far.   8:45 - Big G and Ryan go for two Big G and Ryan close up the show and preview the Jethro lineup.   Tune in to Jethro to kick it with us.

New paper by myself & @Stat_Ron arxiv.org/abs/2603.17866 We introduce a generative modeling framework to evaluate continuous-time player movement against a distribution of frame-level hypotheticals #cmsac #nfl #bigdatabowl #sportsanalytics #ghosting

Fascinating that the professional soccer team in Miami is worth as much as the professional baseball team

Updated the stats site (and a lot of others) to be a million times faster and have data go back to 2002. Try it out! rbsdm.com

Now that the biggest wave of free agency is done, here's a chart showing how the 1st round draft salaries rank within the current market for at each position and their percentile among *starters* in terms of APY, depending on which position is drafted at each spot:

Do DJ Burns next

@tejfbanalytics 🫡

@jakegrossman0 thanks for not exposing the full mattress with no bed frame

Feels like a good time to mention that Tej has a banner of the original tweet in reference on the wall above his bed. Elite ballknower behavior.

The NFL is considering playing on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving in 2026 This is part of the ongoing NFL schedule creep... in the 2000s, just 12% of games were not played on Sundays. In the 2020s, that has been increased to 19%

2026 NFL Offseason Improvement Index is up and running @Unexpected_Pts Compares end-of-season roster point-differential projections to those reflecting offseason changes, including draft capital effects. It doesn't project this well *every* offseason, but 2025 results were solid: Top-3: Patriots, Bears & Panthers Bottom-3: Chiefs, Jets, Eagles

Number of contracts by length, marked in OTC's database as a true UFA or tagged player since 2020. Obviously for 2026 there are many 1 and 2 year deals still to come, but so far the number of 3 and 4 year deals has been pretty consistent from immediately prior seasons.

A true market reset at center Previous record at C for APY as % of cap at signing - 7.4% (arguable less given this was in COVID year) Linderbaum - 8.96% And only 3 year deal. Probably one of the biggest market jumps of all time, certainly in modern times

As free agency has unofficially begun, I wanted to share the updated version of my ShinyApp, NFL Market Match 2026! Will be working on adding model predictions using similarity scores throughout the day, but they should be working for OL! supercd7478.shinyapps.io/ContractAnalys…

Looking back at how the 2024 free agents have fared since signing overthecap.com/looking-back-a…

Here's my rough guess as to where the round cutoffs for 2027 compensatory picks coulb be, depending on a high (~>75%) or mid (~50%) expected snap count. Teams wanting to be mindful about getting comp picks should try to keep offers comfortably below each number as appropriate.

NFL IQ for the 2026 offseason is LIVE! 🚨 Powered by @awscloud, NFL IQ puts you inside the front office of all 32 NFL teams. Follow roster moves, team needs, draft strategy, and more from free agency through the Draft. 🔗 nfl.com/iq

I'm releasing a demo of a clock management simulator app for a limited time. This is something I built for myself to build up my clock management intuitions when I'm on our Playbook simulcast for MNF. espnanalytics.com/clock_sim/