Harry Stebbings@HarryStebbings
This is the F**king superbowl of earnings.
Google Won. Facebook Lost.
I sat down with @jasonlk and @rodriscoll to discuss the deal, along with the biggest news in tech this week:
- Anthropic's $50BN Raise: What Does This Mean for a Potential IPO?
- Atlassian, Twilio and Five9 Beat: The SaaS Apocalypse Over?
- Sierra Raises at $15BN: Is it Peak or Potential?
My notes below:
1. Why Gemini Is Behind but Why It Might Not Even Matter
Google is trailing in “coder love” as developers flock to Anthropic and OpenAI. While Gemini’s token growth lags behind competitors’ 10x gains, Google remains a powerhouse because it owns its model and distribution.
2. Why Palantir Is a Mega-Buy Right Now
CEOs want $10M+ enterprise-wide transformations, not small point solutions. Palantir wins by delivering measurable, large-scale results. Their buying cycles are compressing as every stakeholder now attends the first meeting.
3. Why Is Meta Being Chastised for Spending on Capex?
Meta’s $150B CapEx lacks the clear revenue attribution found in Google’s cloud backlog. Investors view it as a defensive hedge, a bet to be present if social shifts to chatbots. Critics argue a 10 to 15% ad lift does not justify such massive spend.
4. Who Wins and Who Loses From the Application Explosion?
We are in the greatest application-building boom in history. Amazon and Microsoft win by providing the underlying compute for these new B2B apps. Meta loses because it gains nothing from this software sprawl.
5. Atlassian Versus Twilio: Who Is the AI Hero Versus the Unsustainable Bounce?
Atlassian is successfully monetizing its base with Rovo AI, though new customer growth is slowing. Twilio has re-accelerated by becoming the essential API infrastructure for new AI agents. Winners must eventually drive both expansion and new customer acquisition.
6. Should Microsoft Really Be Trading Like the Rest of SAAS Companies?
Excluding AI, Microsoft’s core business is flat to slightly down. Without the AI narrative, it would likely trade like a mature SaaS company at 3x revenue. Their growth is now entirely dependent on massive, high-risk CapEx bets.
7. Why Your VP Needs to Be Full Stack and Do Everything End-To-End
AI is eliminating “managers of managers.” Founders now demand leaders who can actually ship. A modern VP should use agents to execute tasks, like campaigns, end-to-end in minutes. If an executive cannot lead from the front with these tools, they are a liability.
(links below)
