Josh Offenhartz

Wanker, if you aren't allowed a bleeding heart speech when your literal own neighborhood is attacked, when is it ok? how do you think change and counter movements happen? Its not the Rabbi giving a speech after Broadhurts, Southport, or Manchester, its being there in support like hopefully those neighbors were there today for him. The playbook wants normies to feel isolated and alone. Like there are no allies or friends who feel the same way. Its only when folks continue to stand up and say NO THANKS that the countermovement comes to life.

The remarks weren’t powerful at all. I look forward to his bleeding heart speech about: Lee Rigby, Wayne Broadhurst, Southport girls, Manchester arena, London Bridge victims, Huntington train victims and all the rape victims at the hands of Asian gangs. PM sheckled in Golders Green…

Wow wow wow. Take a minute to watch these incredibly powerful remarks from a Rabbi in London. I’ll add - if you’ve never had to send a loved one an “are you ok?” text after yet another attack, kindly stfu.

SCOTUS isnt racist, Congress hasnt been doing its job for 26+ years. In 2013 (Shelby v. Holder) SCOTUS said that the VRA PreClear is legal, but you cant rely on data from the 1970s, which makes total sense. What did Congress do? Nothing. But now show everyone, Maryland, Massachusetts, Illinois, Virginia,

I’m starting to think that maybe the Supreme Court is racist

@Osint613 So hes Iran’s plan was deep fakes?

Tehran University Professor Mohammad Marandi: U.S. Escalation Would Be Catastrophic for the World; Many of the Missile Launchers, Anti-Aircraft Systems, Helicopters, and Planes That Were Destroyed in the War Were in Fact Sophisticated Chinese-Made Decoys.

@MKelbor @prinkasusa But your question is do I think the CIA was up to shady stuff and 6070s 80s and 90s!? For shre.

@Johartz @prinkasusa Remember when Reagan sold weapons to Iran? Wonder what happened with that? 🤔

Jimmy Carter was the 39th U.S. President - and never ordered a single aerial bombing campaign against a foreign country. Every modern president before and after him did. Carter chose diplomacy where others chose firepower. His defining moment came at Camp David in 1978 - locking Egyptian and Israeli leaders in 13 days of brutal negotiation, emerging with a peace agreement that ended 30 years of war. His presidency faced the Iran hostage crisis, oil shocks and economic turmoil - crises that would have given any leader justification for military escalation. He held the line anyway. He received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2002. He died in 2024 at 100 years old. The man who never bombed anyone outlived almost every critic who called him weak.

You mean the US sold weapons to iran until 1979 when the revolution occured? And Carter issued and embargo, but iran could just buy spare american parts elsewhere? So we tries to get an intl arms embargo, but then the Iran Iraq war broke out and Iran REALLY needed those parts and us fp was like iran and iraq fighting? kk cool

@melefante6 This isn’t a hack it’s a complex tax strategy. Using real estate losses to offset W-2 income requires: 750+ hrs (REPS) OR strict participation rules; Significant capital + depreciation strategy; Careful documentation. “2 hrs/week = $1M tax savings” isn’t real.

My wife quit her job and made us $1 million. Not in revenue. In tax savings. The IRS has a designation that lets a stay-at-home spouse use real estate depreciation to wipe out your entire W-2 tax bill.  If you own a short-term rental, you don't even need that status… And you both can still work your W2 jobs... You just need to work 100+ hours a year on your properties and more than anyone else. That's less than 2 hours a week. We used this strategy to save over $1 million in taxes last year.  The tax code rewards asset owners.  Most people just never learn the rules. Comment TAX and I'll send you a full breakdown of how it works.

Does Host think this video makes her look good? If you cant ‘tolerate’ ben shapiro going on someone’s pod, you are the extremist. Ben Shapiro has said on multiple occasions and people in the world have confirmed that he treats individual human beings with respect and dignity. Thats it. Thats a point. Ben treats humans with respect. Full stop.

It seems @profgalloway believes “moral clarity” means saying terrible things with conviction and not backing down

@AlexFinn @philipgalardi Especially since they all now allow you to import memory from other Ai tools.

@philipgalardi you're allowed to use whatever you're comfortable with but it's unbelievably easy switching tools. there's literally 0 switching cost. you just hit new session in the other tool and it works.

It happened. Claude Code has been dethroned. I've lived in Codex w/ ChatGPT 5.5 the last couple of days and it is the: • Smartest model • Best all around AI app • Most powerful features (computer use and image gen) Here's everything you need to know about this A+ release:

@cyrilXBT just built it. dont get any banger posts, but lets see how it goes.

@waldenpatriot @JacobDMartinez FWIW, I've seen Perplexities' "Computer" take three stabs at the front door (it failed) but then was able to backdoor the same data on the 2nd try. I dont have the answer to cyber security, but making the website impossible for human use isnt it.

@JacobDMartinez @Johartz I can have someone from the Corporations Division call you. Email Nick who responded above or my office at walden-web@azcc.gov. Captcha was added in some places to stop scrapping of the data, but It sounds excessive in what you are going through.

I am begging AZ Corp Comm, make website functional. It is not usable in any meaningful way. Why are you asking for a password, then emailing a code for two-factor authorization, and a CAPTCHA for every single login? Why the need for a CAPTCHA every single login? And that isn't enough, so you ask every single search? and the portal doesn't always work with Chrome? @votenickmyers @LeaPeterson @CorpCommAZ @VoteKThompson @renelopezaz

its not abandoned, they were just empty. So if the 'gotcha' is Iranian pilots caught our Arab allies off-guard and managed to strike unmanned buildings? OK? Its war, the idea that America or our allies wouldn't take some damage is nonsense. Hell, there are times where its just not worth the munitions, and sometimes that decision can have unintended consequences. We see that in Israel at times. The Western Defeatist were talking about Iran blowing up aircraft carriers at the start of this. Now were down to striking unmanned buildings?

@ripplebrain @dean_roberti Oh I still think he's wrong, I'm just trying to translate for him

NBC confirms for the first time what many of us already suspected or knew: the Iranian Air Force bombed US bases in the opening phase of the war.

@ripplebrain it also strongly implies that the bases were empty at the time... so Iran broke through some air defenses and hit unmanned bases. Its a kinetic operation, why do people think the standard is America sustains 0 causalities and no damage? That's laughably unrealistic

For people with poor reading comprehension, what's new here is that the Iranians flew jets straight through US air defense into Kuwait (and possibly Bahrain and the UAE) to drop gravity bombs on American assets. The last time something like this happened was during the Korean War

The more interesting question is what if the emerging new Middle East is less radical more stable and generally falls within the western sphere of influence? BB is the leader who stood up to the ayatollah, gave Saudi space to reform and make peace, and the US/Turkey/Jordan coalition cleaned out Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon?

@ggreenwald Israel supporters? More like Dems. They needed a way to placate primary voters but not do any harm. When BB seemed to favor Romney in 12 that was the opening. That is the question, who do they target when BB is gone?

The bullshit tactic of Israel supporters is to pretend the bad parts of Israel are due to Netanyahu, so that once he's gone, everyone can and should go back to loving Israel. Netanyahu is fully representative of Israel. That's why he's been in power 19 years. What comes after him will be more sociopathic. Netanyahu is the by-product of the evils of that country, not the cause.

@JacobDMartinez @waldenpatriot Plz. I am trying to resign from a bunch of old LLCs and its functionally insane. If I manage to run the captcha gauntlet, theres no promise the transaction makes it to the cart, or that multiple ones stay in cart over time.

@Johartz Adding the captcha requirement has made it incredibly difficult. I second this—majorly. @waldenpatriot: is there potential for staff to look into this?

@__Yin_and_Yang_ @_Zeets I have no idea what this tweet means but tying Netanyahu to Barak is dumb. And Barak was a shitty leftist politican who had ties to epstein. How is that news?

@Johartz @_Zeets In a choice between NetanHitler and Carlson 100/100 sane people will choose Carlson. Zionists are white racist apartheid bigots. Better than demonic zionist pedophiles. x.com/clashreport/st…

You have to be extraordinary stupid to champion Tucker Carlson and the rest of that hive of scum and villainy. Did someone wipe your memory from the last several decades or so it that having one correct opinion erases the evil that he’s done and supported through his life?

Theres a lot to say about Cheney and Rummy steering US to Iraq2, but killing GWB as a national figure is an undercovered high impact event. Bush was a fighter, and hed spent enough time with regular folk not to appear like a nepo baby. Laura was fabulous and graceful. And Jenna and Barbara were as american as you could get for a pair of 21 year olds in 2001.

George W. Bush: “It turns out the country is starved to see a white center right Republican and an African-American center left Democrat having fun, and being able to converse”

I suspect the blockade didnt happen sooner becasue there was a real belief (or at least the Israelis believed) that the decapitation strikes would prompt the Iranian Street to come out for change. Remember Pahlavi was all over TV during the bombings talking about his 100 day 2 year plan. It was only after Iran hunkered down that this phase 2 began.

"makes me wonder if they figured this out post war or too much hubris to accept Iran as as a greater foe" Certainly not. Literally thousands of simulations of this scenario have been run by Centcom, setting up all possible contingencies and likely outcomes. Why didn't we blockade sooner? Not sure. Maybe other tactics were ahead in the timeline, maybe the repair of USS Ford delayed it. Good question.

The Strait of Hormuz Reverse Uno Card When Raji Khabbaz and I were running Silver Arrow Investment Management, whenever we were trying to figure out why something happened, he was unsatisfied the explanation that people are sometimes stupid and institutions are often stupid. He correctly thought that people usually have a good reason (at least to them) for doing something even if it appears to make little sense to an outsider. More importantly, he thought that “sometimes people are stupid” was a lazy answer that was dismissive. As investors, it was our goal to understand what was happening, not to ignore it. Recently, I’ve written that many of President Trump’s critics are making the same error. When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that previously transported 20% of the world’s oil supply, the price of oil rose. Gas prices in the US have risen in response. Many screamed that this was an obvious move by the Iranian regime and insisted President Trump should have known it was something they’d do. How could he not know?! In 2002, the US Navy conducted war games they called the Millennium Challenge. One side represented Iran. The other represented the technologically superior US Navy and included an aircraft carrier, warships, and cruisers. The US Navy side had a substantial advantage in firepower. Retired Marine Corps Lieutenant General Paul K. Van Riper used asymmetric warfare tactics to wipe out the US side in one day. Had this been a real fight, the US would have lost 20,000 servicemen. The result was such an embarrassment that the Navy re-floated the sunk ships, changed the rules of engagement to ensure a US victory, and started the challenge again. These games were not a secret. They have been widely covered in the mainstream media and have been the subject of a New York Times documentary. Over the past two decades, I have seen the Millennium Challenge discussed in my daily financial news reading at least a dozen times. The event has its own Wikipedia page. Regardless of your opinion of President Trump, do you really believe that neither he, nor anyone in the White House, nor any of his military advisors, nor Secretary of War, Hegseth knew about this? I realize that many of you reading this have strong negative emotions regarding President Trump. I’m not asking you to like or respect him. I’m just suggesting that “he’s stupid and has no idea what he’s doing” is not good analysis. This is a point I’ve made in this space in the past. Early in the war, Iran closed the Strait which placed economic pressure on the rest of the world. Despite the fact that it was Iran mining the Strait and shooting at the ships that attempted to navigate it, many countries expressed anger at the US and Israel. This was the outcome Iran wanted. Then, the regime decided to allow friendly ships to pass if they paid a fee. The fees were about $1/barrel of oil, or about $2MM per large container vessel. (Many of these fees were paid in Bitcoin, something macro analyst, @peruvian_bull, explained in an excellent post within the past week.) This looked like worst-case scenario for the US. Iran succeeded in closing the Strait and causing economic problems all over the world, then found a way to profit from their own actions. Then, President Trump played his “reverse uno” card. He correctly realized that it wasn’t just the rest of the world that depended on free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and that it was Iran that had the most exposure. Iran is a big oil producer, and oil exports account for 80% of Iran’s exports, 60% of government revenue, and 25% of its GDP. It turns out that Iran has more economic exposure to this narrow waterway than anyone else. President Trump sent the US Navy to form a blockade. He closed the Strait himself ensuring no more $2MM/vessel charges and an inability for Iran to export oil. Iran is close to filling its own storage. Once its oil tanks are full, the regime has two choices, either capitulate and come to an agreement with the US, or to stop producing from its own wells. The problem with the second choice is that it’s difficult to reverse. Stopping production on an active oil well tends to damage it and it’s hard to re-start later. Iran now has a limited amount of time to find a course of action before 25% of its GDP becomes permanently(ish) impaired. While no one in the US likes paying more for gas, prices were much higher just four years ago in 2022 and around $4/gallon in 2008, 2011, and 2012 when $4 had more purchasing power than it does now. The US is a net energy exporter with an economy that has survived higher prices in the past. Foreign ships are turning away from the Strait of Hormuz and sailing to Texas and other southern US ports to fill up at premium prices. I’m not suggesting that this is great for the US; but rather, that the US is well-suited to manage the situation while Iran is about to be faced with a massive long-term problem. Finally, Iran maintains control of the country using extensive human infrastructure. There are police everywhere monitoring protests, internet usage, the attire of citizens, and the hair of Iranian women. That level of control is expensive and the government just lost 60% of its revenue. I’m wondering how long they’ll keep doing their jobs without paychecks. I don’t know how this conflict will end. What I do know is that President Trump and the US Navy have turned Iran’s biggest strategic strength into a giant weakness. Sometimes people do stupid things. And sometimes, we just aren’t seeing the reasoning behind those actions. Last week, one of DKI’s interns wrote, ”The bottom line is that (financial analysis) can tell you what the market’s pricing in, but it’s your job to figure out why”. Right now, the mullahs are facing a difficult decision. It will be interesting to see what comes next.