Juey
53 posts
@jun_song yeah because its not like the dollar lost 25% value in the last 12 months aloneee
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Infinite money glitch :
> Borrow $1M from Japanese bank for ~3% APR
> Deposit into X money and get 6% APY
> You get $30K every year without spending your money
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt
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@J5jayfive It means that customers are getting to the point where they will build their own memory (space x and Tesla) or they’ll find another avenue to get it (Apple). Customers won’t lose margins/business at the expense of making their suppliers rich. No Moat to memory.
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@Jueyegof I would argue the signal speaks more to the depth of the supply crunch. Maybe it’s not nothing… but if the first alternative is a chinese company literally on a banned list… that’s not an awesome signal for the market and where else it can be bought
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Finally someone who posts the actual reality of the situation.
1. Speaks to desperation and how long this supply shock will be.
2. Does not impact the business $MU makes real money from.
3. Highly unlikely.
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay
$AAPL is reportedly seeking U.S. clearance to buy memory from China’s CXMT (Pentagon-blacklisted DRAM supplier) as AI-driven shortages push memory costs higher. Really important to call out that CXMT is mostly trailing-node commodity DRAM (not leading-edge HBM) so even if Apple gets approval, it doesn't solve the high-bandwidth memory shortage driving the AI server margin pool. I also do think that Apple losing hundreds of billions in market value on a 15-20% pricing announcement and then lobbying for a politically sensitive supplier tells you the input-cost shock is real even for the most defensible consumer hardware franchise in the world. For $MU, Samsung and SK Hynix, HBM is what the bull case rests on scarce and locked under contract but commodity DRAM is where a state-backed CXMT eventually bites and thats the only part of the thesis Apple's move actually threatens.
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@wannabfoode @oguzerkan They just sold an additional $80B in backlog 90% prepaid in a 3 month period. Even if OpenAI were to go under bankruptcy. There’s an additional $338B of backlog that needs to be fulfilled.
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Hyperscaler backlog figures tells the $AMZN long thesis.
Just look at the frontier lab shares of the backlogs:
$MSFT: 44% is OpenAI
$ORCL: 54% is OpenAI
$GOOG: 42% is Anthropic
$AMZN: 29% is OpenAI, 21% is Anthropic
AWS has a more balanced risk profile and it’s still projected to grow 30% this year despite already being the largest one.
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$FOUR will experience a very relevant forced short covering coming from the 2027 convertible holders ase they have to un hedge because of the prepayment announced 2 days ago.
Next to months will be very interesting as I expect the company to repercutida emite shares as soon as early July, making the covering extremely difficult.
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@KevinDinan5 @JoJoFromJerz @tedlieu @NASAAdmin He’s the company founder and majority shareholder. And it was $30M which just speaks to how lazy the reporting was.
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Dear @NASAAdmin Jared Isaacman: What is your response?
Citizens for Ethics@CREWcrew
NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman reportedly bought up to $50 million in Shift4 Payments stocks—just weeks before SpaceX, a key Shift4 business partner, went public in the largest IPO in history. That should *not* be allowed. readsludge.com/2026/06/18/nas…
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@InvestNorthwise @LukasCycles Ya cause Nvda going to surrender margins to help NBIS.
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@LukasCycles We certainly could be! We see it as too early to tell where within the range $NBIS will fall.
We expect it to be on the low side due to how much vertical integration is at play and the close relationship with $NVDA where most of the cost comes from.
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Our full $NBIS model is officially here!
Check out the full report in the first comment.
Since our first model Nebius received a significant $NVDA investment, a very underrated $META backstop as a financing lynchpin, and is nearing the 20 site mark globally.
We continue to build our Nebius model from the ground up using a site by site energization method that we now have visibility to run out through 2030.
Thanks to interviews and events with @daniel_koss @mvcinvesting @romanchernin Tom Blackwell and many other Nebius members and contributors, we gained immense insight into how Nebius continues to execute faster that even our aggressive bull case could image.
While we were directionally correct that mix shift would continue to weigh more towards ai cloud contracts with enterprise and ai natives through the end of the decade, we couldn't imagine that it would be near achieved in 2026.
Our 2030 Base case below illustrates just how forward our expectations for growth have shifted at this rate of execution.
Capacity — Connected MW (base case)
2026: 905
2027: 2,142
2028: 3,964
2029: 4,646
2030: 5,200
Undisclosed data center expansion bucket — Connected MW (base case)
2027: 175
2028: 425
2029: 600
2030: 739
ARR per MW (M, base case)
2026: 9.9
2027: 11.3
2028: 12.8
2029: 13.8
2030: 14.5
Exit ARR (B, base case)
2026: 9.0
2027: 24.2
2028: 50.7
2029: 64.1
2030: 75.4
Recognized revenue (B, base case)
2026: 3.4
2027: 15.8
2028: 36.1
2029: 58.1
2030: 70.3
Gross CapEx (B, base case)
2026: 25.0
2027: 39.4
2028: 59.6
2029: 26.2
2030: 25.2
Cumulative 2026–2030: ~$175B
Funding assumptions (base case)
1. Prepayments, % of CapEx: 55%
2. Core OCF, % of EBITDA: 70%
3. External gap, debt/equity: 85/15
4. Blended interest cost: 5.5%
Funding outcomes (B, cumulative 2026–2030, base case)
1. Prepayments: ~95
2. Core OCF ex-prepayments: ~49
3. Debt raised: ~34
4. Equity raised: ~6
5. Ending debt: ~43
6. Ending cash: ~20
Adjusted EBITDA margin (base case)
2026: 40%
2027: 42%
2028: 44%
2029: 45%
2030: 45%
Implied 2030 adj. EBITDA: ~$32B
D&A (B, base case)
2026: 2.9
2027: 8.1
2028: 16.2
2029: 23.1
2030: 27.3
Share count (base case)
Ending diluted shares: ~339M
Base case scenario probability weight: 55%
Thank you to our premium members for your massive support in bringing this refresh so quickly.
Price targets, our portfolio allocation, present value calculations, and our buy/hold/trim/sell zones are now live.
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@compound248 @SiliconSalvage Better to characterize as they both trade at the same FCF Yield %. While one company has no growth and a strong balance sheet and the other company has stronger growth rates, competent management team and a very weak balance sheet.
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@SiliconSalvage tbf, Shift4 has a bunch of one-timers associated with its Global Blue M&A and a tax receivables transaction that make 2026 wonky.
2027 projected EPS is $5.60.
Almost exactly 7.0x P/E - growing faster and a lower multiple than PayPal.
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Two payments stocks. Nearly the same share price.
Completely opposite bets.
$PYPL: $42, 7.9x earnings.
$FOUR: $39, 45x earnings.
Same sector, same ~$40 sticker price — but the market pays ~6x more per dollar of profit for Shift4 than for PayPal.
Both got hit today ($PYPL -3.6%, $FOUR -5.2%), but Shift4’s down 64% from its high vs. 47% for PayPal.
So which would you rather own at $40:
the slow giant priced for death, or the fast grower still at a premium after a 64% crash?
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@AlphaWireHQ @IREN_Ltd Why would they put GPUs in there when they can sign more secured power!
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Our vertically integrated AI Cloud platform has arrived in Europe.
Today, IREN announced it has completed the acquisition of Nostrum Group, adding 490MW of secured power in Spain to serve global demand for AI compute.
“Europe is one of the largest and fastest-growing markets for AI infrastructure, and Spain is among its most compelling entry points, with abundant renewables and strong fiber connectivity. Nostrum gives us secured power today along with a development pipeline and a great local team we're excited to work with.” - @danroberts0101
Learn more: iren.gcs-web.com/static-files/9…
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@jonesallen99138 @jimcramer It’s only half the backlog now and they just raised it by $85B. How long until it’s a smaller percent ? OpenAI already raised $80B in its last equity round and is going to have $100B ownership in AMD. While we just saw Anthropic turn a profit and hit $50B annual run rate.
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@jimcramer Again the devil is in the details. Most of $ORCL RPO is OpenAI. So a bet on Oracle is essentially a bet on OpenAI and betting the farm on OpenAI is something investors have a right to be skeptical about.
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Watch Oracle. It was a gigantic number when it came to backlog. Huge. So spending has to go up. (not a traditional levered-so-backlog spend as these are so hard to build.) BUT they can lay off what they need to lay off and the funding needs aren't outrageous. It doesn't have to be down big.
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@CarioCapital @FindleysFinance I’m actually quite disappointed that neither the CEO or the CFO has bought shares here. Celsius trading at its lowest valuation in 5 years you see 3 people on the C suite team buy the stock. The fact it hasn’t happened here makes me question the thesis.
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@FindleysFinance Dirt cheap is an understatement. I honestly get offended every time I see it trading here
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I want to buy more shares in $FOUR, $ADBE, and $META.
I'm out of cash, so the only way I could do it is if I sold some $CROX, or $QLYS... every one of my 6 holdings is selling cheap today with massive return potential. This is hard.
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@nachunja @bobspaysubstack Imagine squares management team saying we’ll invest $100M in going into stadiums (which would be nothing) to capture at max $1B in revenue. While they’re being eaten alive by Apple and Zelle. Shift4 is stealing market share not the other way around.
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When I look at $FOUR and see what Square and Toast are doing, it’s really hard to be bullish FOUR. Their hardware and software is all stitched together randomly and it’s going to be really hard to catch up with SQ/Toast with AI features. The feature gap will only grow, then they will slowly lose market share.
Their strong grip in hospitality and venues is cool, but how strong is that really? If SQ decides to pour in $100M to go after that segment, how defensible is that?
So cheap, so I’m getting interested too, but thinking it through, cant pull the trigger.
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$FOUR: Midpoint of 2026 non-GAAP EPS guide is $5.60. SBC and acquisition-related costs have each been running $20M/Q for the last 5 quarters. Burden the $5.60 for these costs (about $1.40/share after tax) and you get a normalized 2026 EPS number of around $4.20, which implies 8.7x. Now, $FISV, $GPN and $PYPL all trade below that, so I guess things can always get worse. Feels like we're in a 'max pain' situation right now. I'm not sure if it's relentless shorting, overall apathy towards payments, or a genuine belief by the market that we're going to see a Fiserv-type reset for $FOUR in the not too distant future (I don't believe so)--or all of the above. We're clearly past the point of bitching about the Global Blue acquisition (will they or will they not achieve the targeted revenue synergies), having moved on to some real existential threats to the business being priced in. At another time, there would've been support under this stock given consolidation potential. But the most likely strategic buyer $GPN is out of the market and $FISV (which is rumored to have made a bid a few years back) also does not appear eager for any large scale M&A given all of its problems. So, here we are. Having acquired the majority of my shares in the 2022/2023 time period, I've more than round-tripped this sucker. No interest in selling at these levels but not looking to run out and buy more given the abundance of higher-quality options in payments right now.
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@nachunja @bobspaysubstack Didn’t square grow by 0.3% last year? And you think the company is going to expand into new verticals after cutting almost half its employees base to save margins is going to create product expansion ?
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@Bill6263 @Unreal_Machine @optionscjp @danroberts0101 Well they actually want to wait until there is no more demand for data centers that way they can mine bitcoin and Eth.
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@Unreal_Machine @optionscjp @danroberts0101 Looks like they’ll have to wait for all the other data centers to sell out then. It might be a while.
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WHERE ARE THE $IREN DEALS @danroberts0101
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay
$APLD signed a 15-year AI data center lease with a U.S. hyperscaler for 210MW at Delta Forge 2 adding ~$5.2B of contracted revenue. Applied Digital now has ~$36B contracted across five AI Factory campuses with 1.4GW of contracted IT load and 2.15GW of utility power.
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@BarStreetMedia @MamaJaco1 @Lazarus_Capital Ahhh yes NVDA gets 5 year calls on IREN shares for free. And IREN gets to buy their chips like every other Nvda customer. Huge W!!
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@Jueyegof @MamaJaco1 @Lazarus_Capital They signed with Nvidia recently. Also I would agree with you if it was fully built out but it’s not.
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I love $IREN bulls because their whole bull thesis rests on the “power bottleneck” - that no one will be able to secure power for years…
They just secured 2.4GW in 4 months, lol.
Wonder what they paid, $1 billion? Matches the ATM.
GIF
Small Cap Snipa@SmallCapSnipa
$IREN new 800 megawatt data center campus in South Australia positions the company as a compute leader across APAC 🇦🇺 • Anthropic: partnership with the Australian government to expand compute • Microsoft: $18 billion commitment to expand their cloud infrastructure down under The largest individual data center contract in Australia’s history is for 555 MW Huge opportunity for IREN in their home country
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@BarStreetMedia @MamaJaco1 @Lazarus_Capital Don’t lie to yourself. Nobody waits to sign mega contracts while they have open capacity. It’s been almost a year since the Microsoft deal.
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@Jueyegof @MamaJaco1 @Lazarus_Capital Coreweave has 0 owned capacity right now they lease. That’s the difference they tried to get core scientific to have their own but it didn’t fall through. Margins look very bad and they won’t make very much profit even off that 99b backlog
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@BarStreetMedia @MamaJaco1 @Lazarus_Capital Coreweave will operate both owned and lease. Coreweave reported 55% EBITDA margins? What was IREN’s EBITDA margin? Maybe as bad as IRENs investor don’t want to admit it the software stack is more meaningful then owning the land and is why IREN can’t sign contracts.
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@BarStreetMedia @MamaJaco1 @Lazarus_Capital Coreweave has 1GW of active power being used and will have 1.7GW by the end of the year with 3.5GW secured. On a $99B backlog. Iren is half the market cap of Coreweave. “Deals will come” you think Nvda and micron are building chips rn without a massive backlog ?
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@BarStreetMedia @MamaJaco1 @Lazarus_Capital They had $34M in revenue last quarter. Coreweave had $2.5B on 1GW. As I said empty
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@Jueyegof @MamaJaco1 @Lazarus_Capital You have not done your research no point in arguing especially since you think those data centers don’t have demand when the largest companies in the world are using them
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@BarStreetMedia @MamaJaco1 @Lazarus_Capital So they have 2GW sitting empty right now and only .4GW in contracts filled out. Idk about you but it seems like no one else has a demand problem other than IREN. NBIS, CRWV, ORCL and now even space X signing contracts every day.
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@Jueyegof @MamaJaco1 @Lazarus_Capital They don’t have 4gw online please do research they have 5.8 secured with a little over 2gw energized and 1.4 of that is sweetwater 1 that just started being built out which Nvidia will show as their flagship site for dsx it will get a deal
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