Karl Hart

@bdquinn It’s possible that a Trump midterm could help him, but he seems risky to get the nomination

I'd be willing to bet an awful lot that he'll do worse than a 53.5-46.5 spread on the two party vote. Maybe he could squeak in a win given the environment this year, but 7 points? Nope.

@Aaa1479801 @treysanatomy You could use the same map they have been using since 2003 which had 3 republicans

@treysanatomy 2020 Trump+8.5, 2016 Trump+16.9

average fair Massachusetts map

@BasedIllinoisan Just like Mills I think Collins doesn’t want to run again.

If by the end of October there isn’t another major scandal on Platner and he’s still polling consistently in the lead, but the betting markets have his odds at sub 50%, I will put down at least $200 on Platner winning.

@Mtmoelle @PpollingNumbers If gas prices don’t go down yeah he’s winning Ohio

@PpollingNumbers Brown winning OH? Yea sure, go with that.

🔵 Platner has a 72% chance to win the Senate in Maine (🔵 Flip) 🔵 Brown has a 59% chance to win the Senate in Ohio (🔵 Flip) 🔵 Peltola has a 65% chance to win the Senate in Alaska (🔵 Flip) 🔵 Cooper had a 86% chance to the seat in NC (🔵 Flip) Polymarket

@ElxMapping Alaska

What do you think? And what other races and states do you want included?

Happy to announce that I am launching my 2026 Election Simulator 🇺🇸 It's a website this time, free to use, and the most interactive and cleanest one I've built to date. Covers all statewide races, primary and general, for Michigan and Arizona. More states to come. Link below 👇

@ElxMapping Not really but will Gov Hobbs have a democratic legislature after the election?

Would you be surprised if this is the result in Arizona's Governor election?

@NickyFrank30 @Paisleysposse I think it is last time she ran in 2020 Biden was in the White House 2014 Obama was in the White House yeah this is the first time under Trump 2026

@KarlHart447101 @Paisleysposse No it isn't

She didn't really want to run. She was seen as the best option after all the other potential nominees chose to run for governor instead. But I think Platner filled a void, and no one saw him coming. Like, if they had known he existed 2 years ago, they never would've bothered recruiting Mills. I still think he struggles in November, but the vibe in Maine is so bad for Republicans right now that he'll probably still win, though he'll probably underperform Kamala by a few points.

@NickyFrank30 @Paisleysposse This is the first time she’s running when Trump’s in the White House

@Paisleysposse She is despised now.

@M00se1992 @Knickstape2005 Well dems should have voted for a dem senate in 2016 and 2018 there were enough seats to flip the senate

@Knickstape2005 McConnell said they’d block Hillary’s nominations for SCOTUS…

Math is not these folks strong suit. The court was 5-4 Republican with RBG on it had she stepped down it would have still been 5-4. And 4-4 in 2016, when folks like Brie Brie said the court didn't matter. You lost Roe by not voting for Clinton.

@JBThinkin Something that Congress should investigate but they won’t

TOP Questions (so far) following the WHCD “alleged” assassination attempt. In no order of importance. STAGED? Why was there a post from 2023 that simply stating the shooters first and last name? Why was the shooters shirt off? Why did the SS look so disorganized? Why has trump skipped EVERY WHCD until this one? Why did the shooter mention he especially was NOT targeting Kash Patel? Why was the shooters name searched hundreds of times in Israel, a DAY before the incident? Why did Karoline Leavitt’s husband warn a Fox News reporter to be “very safe” prior to the shooting? Why did the shooting just happen to occur at a time that trumps poll numbers are the lowest of any modern President Why did the shooter book a $3k a night hotel room MONTHS ago for an event that trump NEVER attends, until he recently announced he would. Why was trumps Deputy Chief of Staff climbing on a chair to start a chant of “USA, USA…” Why would an award winning tutor, Caltech Grad and NASA intern try to pull off such a crude, unplanned attempt. Why did the Secret Service LOWER their security protocols that night? Why was Hegseth seen laughing very shortly after the shooting event? Why was VP Vance removed BEFORE the President? Why was the President allowed to stay on the scene and observe with seemingly no security protecting him? Why did right wing social media ALL come out with the same “Ballroom” talking point only minutes after the shooting? Why does it appear that the same SS agents that failed in Butler, PA were on the scene at the WHCD? Why did the SS agents appear to be GROSSLY untrained, frequently mishandling their firearms? Why did the entire cabinet look downright jovial after being put through an active shooter event, not traumatized like most people would be? Why was nearly the entire cabinet, President on down, present in one location, a serious break in National Security policy and procedures. Why was the post from 2023 by a NASA scientist named Henry Martinez, linking him to NASA intern Cole Allen? Why did trump lie about tripping/falling to the ground? Why did a Fox News correspondent have her phone call cut off when she revealed what Karoline Levitt’s husband told her? How does a person reportedly carrying multiple weapons pass or bypass initial screening at a presidential level event? Why would a planner send incriminating intent BEFORE escape or success? How did the trump admin KNOW the intent of the shooter just minutes after the event? Why was the narrative outpacing formal ID confirmation? How did the admin KNOW it was a “lone wolf “ situation so quickly? Why didn’t the Washington Hilton have layered screening protections? Was this a TRUE breach, or something else entirely? Why would someone with no criminal record suddenly risk being killed for such a low success probability attempt? Why were there reports of inconsistent or absent ID checks at the event? HOW did a person allegedly carrying multiple weapons penetrate what was supposed to be a layered security event close enough to engage inside the perimeter structure? Why after Butler, PA were security protocols not MORE ridged? The QUESTIONS keep mounting and are starting to point to what could be yet another STAGED assassination attempt at a time when trump is at his lowest level of popularity, Epstein story not going away and rumblings of Butler PA resurfacing louder than EVER!

@BeshearStan Michigan is not flipping red in a Trump midterm

Hot take: Michigan Senate is more likely to go red then Maine Senate.

@NewsWire_US It’s a big risk for Dumbsantis especially when dems have been flipping seats in Florida

DeSantis Pushes to Eliminate Four Democratic-Held Seats in Florida Redistricting Fight​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ — Fox News

@MickInTheIsland @LeftyWinter But he’s not running

@LeftyWinter After this, I’m definitely voting for Trump in the midterms.

Right before the midterms. His last attempt happened before the 2024 elections. I just can't.

@scottlassley @stats_feed @RoadMN You missed one Zackary Taylor he died but wasn’t elected in a zero year

@stats_feed @RoadMN Corrected: from 1840 to 1960. Had to get William Henry Harrison in there.

🇺🇸 List of United States presidential assassination attempts. Presidents assassinated: 🔴 1865 - Abraham Lincoln 🔴 1881 - James A. Garfield 🔴 1901 - William McKinley 🔵 1963 - John F. Kennedy Presidents wounded: 🔴 1912 - Theodore Roosevelt* 🔴 1981 - Ronald Reagan 🔴 2024 - Donald Trump* Note: *former president while campaigning 🔴 - Republican Party 🔵 - Democratic Party

@BasedIllinoisan Well once Trump endorses the republican nominee she’s going to win the governorship

Republicans who want Francessca Hong to be the Dem nominee for Governor of Wisconsin need to be very careful what they wish for.

@ElxMapping If this happens Trump should just resign

How surprised would you be by this midterm election result?

@rosealinda @SenLouiseLucas You sound like a Texas democrat

@SenLouiseLucas I certainly don't!! Why so happy about taking representation away from almost half of the State? Most elected officials are too concerned with power and lining their own pockets rather than serving the people they are supposed to represent!!

Who wants one?

@RepMcCormick Why would a congressman from Georgia be concerned about a state he doesn’t even represent? Maybe he should be concerned about the gerrymandering that is going on in his state

DC Bureaucrats hijacked Virginia… but we will restore it. Arlington and Alexandria were always meant to be a part of DC. That’s why I introduced the Make DC Square Again Act, because it’s a simple concept: DC = 🟥

@nickchmi @conorjrogers @DrewSav That’s like drawing a safe democratic seat in Oklahoma you just can’t same as in Mass

@conorjrogers @DrewSav It is quite easy to draw a safe republican seat in MA

For starters, New England has 21 seats, not 33 VT: 1 seat, can't Gerrymander RI and NH: 2 seats, one in NH swings CT: Has two swing seats of five ME: One red seat, one swing seat MA: Literally impossible to draw an R seat due to population distribution

@TheWaltonWisdom @micah_erfan Yeah just like Oklahoma which is 5-0 red

@micah_erfan How do you explain Massachusetts? Literally 9-0 blue

There are 12 red states with 0 Democrats. There are only 9 blue states with 0 Republicans.