Kurt Bauerle

@btcjvs The Big Print might begin with a series of small prints that fail to arrest deteriorating conditions.

The next central bank intervention is going to be something to behold.

@usanewshq 👇

@GinieSigonney I do not like your cat like that. I do not like it here nor there. I do not like it in the air. I like you with a hat instead I don’t like your cat upon your head.

I didn’t see anything ..🙄😁

@kyledoops Buyback dollars are now capex spend. Thus, my hunch is the former.

Valuations have reset. Narrative… hasn’t. Tech multiples back near tariff-shock levels while earnings expectations are still pretty high. That gap stands out. Either expectations come down… or price has to catch up. That’s where the opportunity sits. Or the risk.

@MartinSkold2 No matter the shifting sands and dereliction of preparedness, they know it’s all still in there. And while it might take a while, with sufficient provocation it will come to bear with extreme prejudice.

New England’s war song. If you ever hear it sung unironically, watch out - the God of the Red, White, and Blue is descending from the heavens in righteous fury to smite the enemies of freedom and justice in the last great battle of all time, and a normally peaceful (if cranky) people are His instruments. It is rarely sung in this spirit for that last reason - it takes some doing to get them that riled up.

@CiovaccoCapital Still reviewing theeee……..latest charts and data?

Still in production room...

@Tyler_Neville_ @crossbordercap @SantiagoAuFund My current perspective

30 year base in the Yen and it's about to breakout higher...US Dollar wrecking ball locked & loaded at the same time the geopolitics won't allow for a release of global dollar liquidity. @crossbordercap What say you?! @SantiagoAuFund What're you seeing?

@MikeZaccardi @AndrewhFX IIRC, Gates sold like crazy in the back half of last year. There are always tells.

$MSFT set for worst quarter since 2008 -24%

@JohannesWellman @shanaka86 🫡👇

@shanaka86 Your insights are often strong. Your prose increasingly sounds like every paragraph is about to announce the secret spine of history. The “This is not X. This is Y.” device was effective once; now it is the toll booth collecting on every post.

Everything changed in the last 48 hours and nobody has assembled the pieces. IRGC Joint Staff headquarters under US-Israeli strikes. Iran naming UAE targets as Abu Dhabi enters the war. IDF Chief of Staff warning publicly the Israeli military could “collapse” from manpower shortages. Iran claiming over one million fighters mobilised with IRGC lowering the age for support roles to 12. Pentagon considering 10,000 additional ground troops within striking distance of Kharg. Trump pausing energy-plant destruction for 10 days until April 6. Iran denying it requested the pause. Houthis warning they will enter the war. Lavrov saying the quiet part: “Iran did not violate any of its international obligations.” Russia’s oil revenue doubling to $24 billion this month. That is not a war. That is a realignment. But the development that rewrites everything is not the strikes or the troops. It is a checkpoint on Larak Island. Iran’s Foreign Minister told the UN Secretary-General directly that blocking enemy ships in Hormuz is Tehran’s legal right as a coastal state. Not a threat. A legal claim. Ships are being funnelled into Iranian-controlled waters near Larak for visual inspections before passage. Non-enemy vessels pass with coordination. Enemy vessels do not. This is not a blockade. It is something more durable. Selective access with political screening, transit fees, and a legal framework. Iran shifted from threatening to close Hormuz to administering who uses it. The fees are collected in yuan. Chinese intermediaries process payments through CIPS, bypassing SWIFT. Iran already receives over 80 percent of oil revenue in yuan. Legislation is advancing to codify the tolls into permanent law. The US cannot sanction what it cannot see on SWIFT. The yuan is being anchored at the world’s most consequential energy chokepoint not by Chinese policy but by Iranian necessity. Beijing did not plan this. Tehran built it. Rubio responded to Europeans who called this “not Europe’s war” with the sentence that links both conflicts: “Well, Ukraine is not America’s war, and yet we’ve contributed more to that fight than any other country in the world.” Hormuz is the receivable. Ukraine is the debt. Two wars linked in one sentence by the Secretary of State. Russia’s Dmitriev warns “the most severe energy crisis in human history is approaching.” Russia does not share intelligence with Iran. Russia does not need to. Every dollar Brent rises above $90 funds Russia’s war in Ukraine with revenue Western sanctions were designed to prevent. The Iran war is financing the adversary it was supposed to isolate. Israeli military officials have reportedly told their government that Iran’s capabilities cannot be eliminated in the current operation. Nine thousand targets. $200 billion. The Supreme Leader dead. The navy commander dead. None of it reopened the strait. None of it stopped the checkpoint. The kinetic campaign achieved maximum destruction and zero strategic resolution. Trump says the mission completes in four to six weeks. His mission is kinetic. Iran’s mission is legal, administrative, and fiscal. Those missions do not intersect. You cannot bomb a checkpoint into nonexistence when the checkpoint is a legal claim, a fee schedule, and a parliamentary bill. April 6 is the pause deadline. April 27 is the NPT. May 14 is Trump-Xi. Between now and then, the toll booth collects in yuan, the legislation advances, the checkpoint operates, the IDF bleeds manpower, the Pentagon deploys armour, Russia doubles its revenue, and the AI supply chain loses its helium from the same chokepoint that is being incorporated into Iranian sovereign law. The war did not break the world. It rewrote the operating system. And the new operating system runs on yuan, collects at Larak, and does not require a single admiral to be alive to function. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@CryptoHayes @Selkis_2028 It puts the yield control on the 10.

Almost there … If Trump invades Iran what is Buffalo Bill Bessent going to do to calm the UST market?

@ValetVespa @JacobShap No, we’re talking about Iran, its capacity to close a vital shipping corridor, and why or why not the US should abide such capacity. “They’ve never done it” is illogical as grounds for tolerating it for reasons that are obvious. Cheers. 🍻

@KurtBauerle @JacobShap You are moving the goalposts. We’re talking about the strait. It’s clear that your political allegiances are clouding your judgment. There is little else that would explain such unsound reasoning.

What’s clear is that Iran developed drones/missiles/mines specifically designed to close a vital shipping corridor. Again, the US, which is the guarantor of global free trade, could’ve continued to tolerate Iran’s ever burgeoning capability, but chose not to (in addition to not tolerating its purported development of nuclear weapons and intercontinental delivery systems).

@ValetVespa @JacobShap No, the fact that Iran has funded a terrorist proxy that has attacked commercial ships in the Red Sea as recently as last year is “tremendous evidence” that relying on “they’ve never done it” is illogical.

@KurtBauerle @JacobShap No, it’s not illogical. They’ve never done it is actually tremendous evidence that they would not have ever done it if unprovoked.

@ValetVespa @JacobShap Iran has given the world cause for concern for five decades. The notion that “they’ve never done it“ as an argument for allowing them to openly and notoriously develop (and now unequivocally posses) the capacity to do it is illogical.

@KurtBauerle @JacobShap This is all revisionist malarkey. Iran has never closed the strait up until now. They did so bc Trump and Bibi attacked them and murdered their leadership.

@ValetVespa @JacobShap It is true that the United States could have continued to abide Iran’s development of an arsenal specifically designed to close the world’s most important global commons shipping lane at a time and circumstance of its choosing.

@KurtBauerle @JacobShap Huh. What do you mean? The strait is only closed bc of a terrible decision by the President of the United States.

They don't seem to get that Iran is a civilizational nation state with millennia of history and it's not going to be "final blowed" by some shiny bombs or a few thousand marines.

@ValetVespa @JacobShap Subject to an ever more fortified capacity to close it.

@KurtBauerle @JacobShap The strait was open.

@Econimica Domo Arigato (lotsa) Mr. Robotos

there is no demographic fuel to grow our way out of this...don't know of any other path forward than interest rate/YCC and QE/currency debasement. Interested to hear what other paths are available?

demographics are a thing...a big thing.

@GaryCardone Looks like what might be floating about inside a Petrova Line.

“Separation is an illusion”

@texasrunnerDFW @SahilBloom While I get your point, I surmise the misapprehension with Diet Coke involves people thinking it’s not unhealthy rather than affirmatively healthy.

@SahilBloom Diet Coke

What's something most people think is healthy that's actually not?

@MartinSkold2 Narratives still colliding, or the “not getting it” is accelerating, or the current price movement is transitory, or the market is starting to properly calibrate. 🤷

“The solution required the full mobilization of American industrial capacity and took eighteen months. There's no equivalent solution available here in the short term.” - Well yeah, because we don’t have any industry.