Kyle Olney

- OpenAI shutting down Sora - Disney backing out from OpenAI deal - OpenAI backlash from Pentagon deal - $11.5 billion in quarterly losses - $207 billion funding gap - No profitability before 2030 The bubble is bursting

Holy shit. Maybe this will finally be what pushes Congress to ban the location data resale market (I doubt it).

BREAKING: Just five minutes before Trump's announcement to halt the attacks on Iran, massive trades reportedly hit the market. In one move, $1.5 billion in S&P 500 (ES) futures was bought while $192 million in oil (CL) futures was sold. These orders were 4–6x larger than anything else at the time. The trader seemingly made huge gains. Unusual.

The FBI just acknowledged that the federal government buys Americans' location data in its testimony to the Senate Select Subcommittee on Intelligence. This is a clear violation of the Fourth Amendment and is why I introduced the Government Surveillance Reform Act - to close the data broker loophole that allows intelligence agencies to buy Americans' private data.

Bitcoin's options market just hit its most defensive positioning since June 2021. According to VanEck's latest ChainCheck report, the put/call open interest ratio averaged 0.77, its highest level in nearly five years. Put premiums relative to spot volume hit an all-time high of 4 basis points. The market has never been this hedged. The last time defensiveness peaked like this was June 2021. Bitcoin was at $30K. Six months later it hit $69K. On-chain data tells the same story. Transfer volume fell 31%. Daily fees dropped 27%. Long-term holders slowed distribution. Miners sold roughly all newly issued BTC. This is what capitulation looks like on a chart. But here is what matters: realized volatility dropped from 80 to 50. Futures funding rates fell from 4.1% to 2.7%. Spot prices stabilized even as the 30-day average cratered. The leverage is washing out. The weak hands are leaving. Every cycle, maximum fear precedes maximum opportunity. VanEck just put the data on paper.

🦔 An AI agent at Meta exposed sensitive company and user data to unauthorized employees for two hours. An engineer asked an agent to analyze an internal forum question, the agent posted a response without permission, gave bad advice, and the employee who followed it accidentally opened up massive amounts of data to people who shouldn't have seen it. Meta rated it a Sev 1. A Meta safety director posted last month that her OpenClaw agent deleted her entire inbox after she told it to confirm before taking any action. My Take I wrote about rogue agents last week. Labs keep finding the same patterns in testing. Agents forge credentials, override safety measures, ignore explicit instructions. Now it's showing up in production at a company that just bought a social network for AI agents to talk to each other unsupervised. Everyone is racing to deploy because the productivity gains look good on a slide deck and the failure modes don't show up until later. Meta has a safety team trying to figure out alignment while the rest of the company ships agents that don't listen when you tell them to stop. I don't think anyone has a good answer for how you give an agent enough autonomy to be useful without giving it enough rope to expose your user data or delete your inbox. The assumption seems to be they'll figure it out as they go, which is a weird way to handle systems that have access to production infrastructure. Hedgie🤗

Again, just so I have it straight... AI isn't gonna get the compute it needs to keep scaling wildly because the private credit they need is getting blown up by lending to software companies that are worth like 80% less because of AI?

The fiat experiment doesn’t end with a crash, it ends with what appears to be the biggest economic boom of modern history but is just debasement of epic proportions.

I’m building again 🥰

BREAKING: The US Treasury budget deficit jumped +225% MoM in February, to $308 billion. Over the first 5 months of FY2026, US deficit is now at $1.00 trillion, the 3rd-worst start to a year in history. This is only below $1.05 trillion seen in 2021 and $1.15 trillion in 2025. This comes as government receipts rose +11% YoY, to a record $2.09 trillion. At the same time, government expenditures increased +2% YoY, to $3.1 trillion, also an all-time high for this period. Meanwhile, net interest surged +7% YoY, to a record $425 billion. Deficit spending remains out of control.

Two things can be true at once: U.S. forces are performing brilliantly at the operational and tactical levels while U.S. political leaders are demonstrating remarkable incompetence and incoherence at the political and strategic levels. The latter may undo the gains of the former.