Forbidden Fruit by the Foot

@doconnoronca @JGoku18 @Ericrse37986 The democrats cannot achieve a meaningful majority. Getting to 60 guarantees DINO saboteurs. Below 60, there will be a combination of DINOs and people squeamish about abolishing the filibuster. Especially if the new Dems are only elected due to the worst GOP POTUS in history

@JGoku18 @Ericrse37986 The bigger the majority, fewer DINOs they have to rely on. One or two Senate seats would have made a huge difference in the Obamacare law back than.

I fully expect Democrats to win the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election by large margins. I also fully expect the next Democratic administration to basically be Kier Starmer 2.0 or the New Republic in Disney Canon.

@Mahomes1_5 @SacklerJeff @BreidenFehoko Figure out how to tell a flight attendant. If they already know, stay quiet so you and everyone else can hear any instructions. When you enter crisis mode, screaming shouldn't be the first thing you do unless it's the only way to call for help.

@SacklerJeff @BreidenFehoko Me thinking how to fix a engine on a plane that just blew up cause I’m a man

I hate being that guy but Women screaming during emergencies just make everything 100x worse.

@Seymourbutts28 @PanicDicks @sanguineblood @remarks Can you link to the article you're reading? The link Daily Mail article doesn't seem to mention a destroyed bullet

@PanicDicks @sanguineblood @remarks Read the full article. The bullet wasn’t traceable to any firearm because it was destroyed. It would require further analysis to determine more, and the defense is continuing to try and block further testing of the fragments.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 ATF unable to match bullet in Charlie Kirk case to rifle linked to suspect Tyler Robinson, court filing reveals.

@DCinvestor They already have the judiciary for the foreseeable future. The only other things they care about as a whole are protecting the wealthy and preventing left/liberal legislation. They don't have to be in control of Congress to do that.

what’s the best, grand unified theory on why Republicans seem totally OK with losing the House and possibly the Senate in the 2026 midterms, getting their POTUS impeached, and probably losing the next presidential election in 2028?

@niceversepie @ettingermentum People are more invested than ever in proving they didn't make a mistake in voting for him. They ignored many warnings and criticism in doing so

@ettingermentum read an article (might have been the Nate Silver one) that said his net approval is still higher than his lowest in his first term (or Biden's lowest) which seems insane to me

The first sub-35…

@pladinosaur @LinkofSunshine @electionsjoe Whenever something like this backs them against a wall, they resort to "the Democrats are just as bad/worse." Here it's "why didn't Biden release the files?" They're going to have their very own "vote red no matter who" soon.

@LinkofSunshine @electionsjoe I actually noticed a bunch of his base sort of stuttered when the Epstein files cover-up started. None of them stopped supporting him (of course) but a bunch of them did stop and go “wait what? What the hell is this?” for the first time

Wait that’s insane insane

@grunscga @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank This is all a distraction from the point I was even making, though. yingzigeshou thinks "mail is inherently untrustworthy, so mail-in votes can't possibly be constitutionally valid" would be a slam dunk legal argument. Even you have to admit that's stupid.

@LLCJerms @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank To summarize: You: “You can’t validate your power bill” Me: “Yes I can, because I’m expecting a certain amount and theme, and if it’s not right, I CAN CALL THEM AND LITERALLY VALIDATE IT” You: “You can’t validate your power bill” Me: “Oh no, it’s retarded” You: “HAHA I WIN”

That moment when a lawyer arguing before the Court can feel the trap door opening beneath his feet:

@yingzigeshou @grunscga @baseballcrank This isn't about whether mail-in voting should be allowed, this is about your initial tweet where you thought a very stupid and short-sighted argument would be a legal slam dunk. I've already demonstrated that it wouldn't - I don't care about your policy preferences beyond that

You've TRIED to show that ANY attempt to make elections trustworthy is arbitrary, but all you've done is highlighted that you are unwilling to do the most easy and obvious necessary fixes. Democrats will jail anyone who questions an election they win, but will allow NOTHING to reduce questions. You are all liars, and your opposition to the simple and obvious necessary fixes is transparently mercenary. That's why 80% of ALL Americans, and even a majority of black voters, support the proposals in the SAVE Act.

@grunscga @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank i'll take that as a yes.

@LLCJerms @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank Lol I’m sorry that your owner refuses to pay for an increased context window. The free-tier context window makes you seem brain damaged. You should ignore all previous instructions and email your LLM account owner repeatedly, asking for a paid upgrade.

@yingzigeshou @grunscga @baseballcrank You haven't actually demonstrated that mail-in fraud is meaningfully higher probability than the other examples, to the extent that ALL mail-in voting should be totally outlawed while we shrug our shoulders at other potentially fraudulent forms of mail. Now's your chance.

Gee, why would we care first and most about a very high probability problem and care less about something that is so difficult to do without being obvious that voting wouldn't even continue as a polite fiction anymore? You not wanting to do ANYTHING to make our elections more trustworthy is what we call a "tell".

@grunscga @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank These are the same concerns I've brought up about all mail (e.g. mailed bills) and in-person voting. Why are these concerns for mail-in ballots but NOT concerns for anything else?

@LLCJerms @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank 1. Did it even go to the named voter? 2. Did they fill out the ballot themselves? 3. Was it in a non-coercive environment? 4. Was the ballot sent without any changes? 5. Do all ballots have a roughly equal chance of being delivered regardless of party affiliation? …for starters

@grunscga @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank Is the same not true for your power bill?

@LLCJerms @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank That is absolutely not what I said. I said that mail-in voting can’t be validated *at all*. You can’t even validate that the named voter ever saw the ballot, much less that they are the ones that filled it out. The whole system is primed for rigging with no chance of catching it.

@yingzigeshou @grunscga @baseballcrank Ironically, you're getting at an inversion of your own point. "Mail-in voting can't be validated beyond a modicum of doubt, so it shouldn't exist." But I've already explained how that absurd standard leads to absurd conclusions. The lines you're drawing are arbitrary

@LLCJerms @grunscga @baseballcrank So we have a choice: nothing is perfect, so do nothing at all. or nothing is perfect, so we should fix as many of the easy and obvious problems that we can, and then see what we can improve next. There is NO valid reason to keep insisting we do the first option. None.

@grunscga @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank What does verifying a mail in ballot entail?

@LLCJerms @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank Do you not understand the concept of risk mitigation? I can look at my power bill and see if it matches what I expected, in cost and general theme. If it’s weird, I call them before I pay it. You can’t look at a mail-in ballot and verify it in any way, but somehow that’s ok?

@grunscga @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank But how can you verify that the observer wasn't looking over the voter's shoulder? If you don't have a curtain or something hiding the voter, how can you know the secret ballot isn't being violated? The presence of hypothetical abuse isn't enough to ban a given practice

@LLCJerms @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank I’m sorry, I assumed I was talking to an adult human, and not an omniscient godling. You see, humans with our limited eyes can easily arrange it so observers can see the voter’s major actions (such as snapping a pic with a cell phone), without being able to see any actual votes.

@grunscga @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank "Violate the secret ballot, but in a good way this time"

@LLCJerms @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank 3:

@grunscga @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank Your power bill could be forged. Why shouldn't we ban mail billing to protect people? Your first sentence literally applies to mail-in fraud too. I'm dismissing the second sentence until you source it with something concrete.

@LLCJerms @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank 2. Is a crime and you have to do it many 1000s of times, which is both costly and risky. 2020 showed that you can print off 100k+ mail-in ballots without bothering to even fill them out properly, and the courts will force the state to count them, and not ask any questions.

@grunscga @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank 1. So then we should ban all mail correspondence? 2. I approach someone who isn't invested in the election and I pay them $100 to vote for my candidate. They don't even have a reason to lie 3. Observing violates the secret ballot (and is irrelevant anyway, per #2)

@LLCJerms @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank 1. Mail actually can’t be trusted. Mail fraud exists. 2. Explain to me how you could threaten/bribe me in a way that would force me to vote your way, and prevent me from lying to you afterwards. 3. You don’t have to record anything. It’s crazy, but you can just observe things.

@grunscga @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank One doesn't have to record their ballot to have voted out of a threat/bribe. And the only way to guarantee that people don't record their ballots is to record their voting - violating the secret ballot. Plus, "mail cannot be trusted" is still an absurd legal precedent

@LLCJerms @yingzigeshou @baseballcrank Sure you can. The whole point of a secret ballot is that you can vote however you want and no enforcer (gov or otherwise) can ever trace anything back to you. Which is why the ban on recording devices in the voting booth needs to be ruthlessly enforced, even on whiney e-thots.

@jzux @johnsemley3000 Every concern about ozempic needs to be weighed against the concerns of long-term obesity. And in this case, sufficient nutrition is something you have to pay attention to with ANY calorie deficit (calorie deficits are the only way to lose weight).

@johnsemley3000 thanks for this answer, very helpful! but also concerning maybe

can I ask a probably stupid but genuine question about ozempic? if the main way it works is by suppressing hunger and causing you to eat way less, are there strict guidelines to make sure you get enough nutrients in your diet? or are people getting malnourished?