Lorenzo

@LeveredVinny Also interested

If anyone knows the MD running this search pls lmk

@Ron284Ron ~70mm+ tariff refunds on the way, that’s what 60% of the mkt cap?

$COOK Another private equity disaster. Traeger grills a beloved product that was family owned. IPO'd @ $18 in '21. Now trading $.77. I'd hate to be an employee there.

@DaglioDavid @CorneliaLake Re end of quarter repo, you’re referring to Cliffwater or others also? Haven’t really seen with other BDCs but been a while since actually looking

That was AAA credit, these are crummy cos that can't get financing elsewhere borrowing at 700 over libor and 2x ebitda. A small change in profits and they are in trouble. The holding cos are using less leverage, but appears they are using end of quarter repo and swap lines to obfuscate true leverage.

If you want to understand what 2008 was like, just use Private Credit right now but assume the risk is owned by an investment bank levered 30x+ to 1 and funded overnight in the wholesale repo market.

unreal that they sent SBF to jail for running one of the best performing venture funds of all time

@junkbondanalyst Thumbs up?

The first official pictures just released of former President Maduro after landing at Stewart International Airport earlier today, less than 24 hours after the US conducted Operation Absolute Resolve in Venezuela.

@EnergyCredit1 Those were the days that’s for sure

Told this story before but I’ll tell it again. 400mm aum. 6x leverage back then on convert arb. Owned 350mm cfc bonds. Short cfc stock and long puts. Short shit ton of other dirty hedges. Band of America take UNDER happened January 08. Bonds went from 60s to 90s. Stock down. We made 25% in ten minutes. Convert market imploded afterward. Ended +12% Everyone was gating. We didn’t. When things calmed down we went from 400mm to 2b quickly. We had massive delta heavy shorts on in 2009 but still made 50% +/- Expanded from Converts to distressed and hy rel Val. Was analyst for convert book and distressed book but traded my own 500mil hy rel Val book. Crushed it in energy coming out of 08/09. Covered tech there also. Amd was massive home run. Best of my life. Shorted bonds from near par and flipped long about time they sold fans to GF and rode back to par. When Lehman went bankrupt I was at a Viking game in mn with our sales guy. He was like fuck it let’s go nuts on my corp card. JPM bought a block of amd bonds from Lehman desk when they went belly up. Trading at like 47 at the time. We see a 36 print on trace. My pm says can’t be real. He was hated by sell side. We pay something like 45 for around 40mm bonds. Trace prints go back up to 47. My former analyst was rock star on JPM prop desk. Told me their desk took other half of the block at 36. JPM convert desk crossed us for 9 points on 40mm and bonds. 3.6 million commish in hour. I couldn’t say anything because would get back to friend and I hated dude anyway so kinda laughed. He’d beat me up for paying 1/4 vs 1/8. lol. We rode them back to over par anyway. Still huge win.

Great line from Michael Cembalest, JPM..... "Other recent AI news: Oracle’s stock jumped by 25% after being promised $60 billion a year from OpenAI, an amount of money OpenAI doesn’t earn yet, to provide cloud computing facilities that Oracle hasn’t built yet, and which will require 4.5 GW of power (the equivalent of 2.25 Hoover Dams or four nuclear plants), as well as increased borrowing by Oracle whose debt to equity ratio is already 500% compared to 50% for Amazon, 30% for Microsoft and even less at Meta and Google."

@Knightlegcap “While we still won’t return your calls and the ‘co-op’ won’t give you the same new money rights as the original co-op parties we seduced back when the loan was trading at 98.125, you have to sign this now or we’ll downgrade your holiday basket to the cheap Chinese chocolates”

Gibson Dunn tracking down the last lender for their co-op to go effective

@icebergy @TuckerCarlson says it’s good for me

It's crazy zyn has psyoped ppl into thinking consuming 30-90mg of nicotine a day as healthy

Still think about how this man figured out the cheat code to life

@CorpusCol What do you use to easily screen through call report numbers? SNL?

Should add that $IBOC had 5 banks. #3 in size in OKC had a loss due to ADC lending. It has not reported yet.

Time for the list of banks > $1B in assets with bad loan metrics up by 100+ bps Q/Q in FDIC call reports. The data shows a lot of strain. H/t to @philtimyan for pointing out trading on the $BAFN EPS miss and to @sec_digger for surfacing $BCBP's overuse of "restructuring".

Day in the life of a L/S Equity PM 3:30am - wake up in a cold sweat from the memory of your IB VP calling you a fucking retard 5:30am - get to the office and plug into bloomberg. Investor relations girlies are doing the firm sponsored pilates class in the firm owned gym. You ask yourself why you chose this career 8:30am - finish reading your emails. Sell-side has downgraded your entire long book and upgraded your entire short book. Excellent 12:30pm - stare into the bathroom mirror and contemplate killing yourself 12:35pm - take the 2nd biggest shit of your life 1:30pm - risk reaches out reminding you that you have too much exposure to the dividend yield factor. Thank you 2:30pm - head out to grab lunch. Homeless man with an iPhone and gucci sweatshirt pisses on your Sperrys. Good reminder to vote for Mamdani, he’ll fix this 4:15pm - reviewing exposures and performance, realize you made 1.5bps today. Sweet 7:00pm - yell into the abyss (Murray Hill) on your way home 10:30pm - go to bed. Dream of ways to acquire MNPI without getting flagged by compliance

@kenwday All good, nice work!

@LPHhimself_ Hey, I don’t think I’ll be sharing publicly. Hopefully this helps with inspiration though!

Round 2 Thread of Refrac Vibe Coding. Adding some economics and monte carlo simulation. Link is to round 1 if you're new to the thread. 🧵 below: x.com/kenwday/status…

@rokez618 @junkbondinvest We cede conflicts to Bermuda obv

@junkbondinvest Funny but in all seriousness, insurance is super regulated already. No idea how the conflicts committee functions though.

The year is 2045. Apollo and Blackstone get so big in credit they become heavily regulated. At the same time, banks have become irrelevant and regulations are now laxed to non-existent. Banks then begin to take greater risk on their balance sheet as the PE giants are too regulated to do so. The circle is complete.

@j77324 What changed here all of a sudden? Thought tariffs would have initially caused a surge in transport of tariff-sensitive goods followed by a collapse?

1) Here is my list of bankruptcies in trucking & logistics for April and first part of May: 1. Grace Express LLC (2:25-bk-13208), California Central Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 7 Assets: $0 to $100,000 Liabilities: $100,000 to $1,000,000 2. EZ Global Carriers, Inc. (1:25-bk-10063), Texas Southern Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 7 Assets: $0 to $100,000 Liabilities: $100,000 to $1,000,000 3. Best Choice Trucking, LLC (1:25-bk-10704), Massachusetts Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 11 Assets: $1,000,001 to $10 million Liabilities: $1,000,001 to $10 million 4. Best Logistics Inc. (2:25-bk-21770), Tennessee Western Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 11 Assets: $0 to $50,000 Liabilities: $50,001 to $100,000 5. APG Express Inc. (2:25-bk-12900), California Central Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 11 Assets: $10,000,001 to $50 million Liabilities: $10,000,001 to $50 million 6. SBS Logistics, Inc. (7:25-bk-70309), Virginia Western Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 7 Assets: $1,000,000 to $10,000,000 Liabilities: $1,000,000 to $10,000,000 7. TSM Trucking, LLC (3:25-bk-30681), Tennessee Eastern Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 7 Assets: $100,000 to $1,000,000 Liabilities: $100,000 to $1,000,000 8. NSH Logistics Inc (1:25-bk-41733), New York Eastern Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 7 Assets: $0 to $100,000 Liabilities: $100,000 to $1,000,000 9. L.E. Stafford Trucking, LLC (3:25-bk-01383), South Carolina Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 7 Assets: $0 to $100,000 Liabilities: $0 to $100,000 10. Royal Caravan Company (1:25-bk-05540), Illinois Northern - Chicago Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 7 Assets: $0 to $100,000 Liabilities: $100,000 to $1,000,000 11. APO Trucking LLC (2:25-bk-10991), Washington Western Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 7 Assets: $0 to $100,000 Liabilities: $100,000 to $1,000,000 12. Cheema Brothers Logistics, Inc. (2:25-bk-21545), California Eastern Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 11 Assets: $100,001 to $500,000 Liabilities: $100,001 to $500,000 13. Kadam Logistics Corp. (1:25-bk-05237), Illinois Northern - Chicago Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 11 Assets: $100,001 to $500,000 Liabilities: $100,001 to $500,000 14. Tsavorite Trucking LLC (4:25-bk-35405), New York Southern Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 7 Assets: $0 to $100,000 Liabilities: $0 to $100,000 15. Apollo Import Export, Inc. (1:25-bk-10654), California Central Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 7 Assets: $0 to $100,000 Liabilities: $100,000 to $1,000,000 16. Al Kanoni Trucking Empire Inc (8:25-bk-10981), California Central Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 7 Assets: $0 to $100,000 Liabilities: $100,000 to $1,000,000 17. OP Logistics (2:25-bk-13184), California Central Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 7 Assets: $0 to $100,000 Liabilities: $100,000 to $1,000,000 18. Pegasus Transloading Services Inc. (1:25-bk-05894), Illinois Northern - Chicago Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 7 Assets: $1,000,000 to $10,000,000 Liabilities: $1,000,000 to $10,000,000 19. UNITED HAULING, LLC (2:25-bk-03680), Arizona Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 11 Assets: $1,000,001 to $10 million Liabilities: $1,000,001 to $10 million 20. Trans2, Inc. (1:25-bk-06493), Illinois Northern - Chicago Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 7 Assets: $0 to $100,000 Liabilities: $100,000 to $1,000,000 21. JUCC Logistics, LLC (4:25-bk-32295), Texas Southern Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 7 Assets: $0 to $100,000 Liabilities: $100,000 to $1,000,000 22. ASAP Couriers, Inc. (2:25-bk-00761), Washington Eastern Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 7 Assets: $0 to $100,000 Liabilities: $100,000 to $1,000,000 23. BALKAN EXPRESS, LLC (4:25-bk-41544), Texas Northern Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 11 Assets: $10,000,001 to $50 million Liabilities: $10,000,001 to $50 million 24. Sweet Trucking Co., LLC (3:25-bk-30765), Tennessee Eastern Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 11 Assets: $1,000,001 to $10 million Liabilities: $1,000,001 to $10 million 25. Pinnacle Freight Lines Inc. (8:25-bk-71548), New York Eastern Bankruptcy Court, Chapter 7 Assets: $0 to $100,000 Liabilities: $1,000,000 to $10,000,000

@dbc___ @Qbiteeth @EamonJavers You sure showed him!

Source in the room tells me this is a rough transcript of the comments Treasury Secretary Bessent made yesterday at a closed door event that are moving markets today: “The next steps with China are, no one thinks the current status quo is sustainable at 145 and 125 [percent]. So I would posit that over the very near future, there will be a de-escalation. And I think that that should give the world, the markets, a sigh of relief… We have an embargo now, on both sides, right?”

@rhymestar1455 @junkbondinvest What could possible catalysts could be? I’ve tried for years and can’t come up with much - vehicles are structured well such that they never have to sell underlying loans, and the liabilities sit overwhelmingly with big insurance platforms with sticky long duration capital

@junkbondinvest I cannot wait to be part of the impending years-long deal breakdown/cleanup crew for middle market CLOs. If you're a college kid reading this, consider structured finance.

Everyone setting up private credit secondaries funds before anyone's actually selling at distressed prices... Just waiting for that first LP liquidity crunch...real discounts coming later

@Ksidiii Directionally how’d you guys do today? Up big / up decently / flat ish / down ish?

We're still not in "tail-event" territory, with the VIX remaining in the twenties. But, keep in mind that larger volatility-targeting/control funds have deleveraging triggers around the 30 level.

@quant_arb For a simpleton pleb can you explain the difference between these?

You still can’t do taker/taker (taker on all legs). Most firms do maker/taker and eventually maker/maker as they’re forced to compete more. Some *very* small capacity and niche cases exist where taker works; but they’re incredibly small capacity. (11/n)

It will become more and more complex, and assuming you decided to keep that change and are not an idiot that increase in complexity happens in the right directions (not neural networks) (4/n)