Intellectual Endeavors

@SamarthNagpal26 However, expensive is not just about current multiples. It could have high current PE but still trade at discount to its intrinsic value based on DCF (again not excel spreadsheet DCF but the real one :p).

@SamarthNagpal26 In other words, if one is overpaying, they are investing but speculating. They are betting on the fact that they will find someone foolish to buy it even more expensive than what they already did by overpaying.

There’s only 1 thing in investing- Starting valuations matter… never overpay Seedhi baat no bakwaas … Kab tailwinds clip ho jaye never know

@annkitroy Confusion between cause and effect and may be even between correlation and causation.

One of the symptom of development is that people keep changing their representatives. The sheer reason why Tamilnadu and other southern states will keep on growing.

@Royalsinghz3 @ShekharGupta

-Meet Jinnah Lover Pakistani Yasser who is a part time columnist at "The Print India", spreading Propaganda -I wonder how many Anti-India Columns & articles he wrote during OP Sindoor while getting paid by "The Print India". 👀

@riteshmjn Is wealth tax an answer? print money, asset prices increase, tax asset owners and use that as a safety net?

This is probably my most important post. The FED stole your future and there is no going back "The system is rigged. The deep state does not want us to be free. The American dream is dead." Statements like these conjure images of deep pessimism, a worldview where you have no agency, where you are merely a puppet dancing for malignant powers you cannot see or touch. We are not people who live in that camp. But sometimes, certain data points are so damning that they leave us no choice but to admit: something is seriously wrong, and it needs to be laid out in the open. Every time I visit India now, I find people agitated. Even those in the top 10% of the income bracket, earning anywhere from ₹50 lakhs to a crore per year, feel like they are running on a treadmill that keeps accelerating. No matter how fast they move, it is never enough. At the ground level, the situation is far worse. It is the same story everywhere. In Canada, both partners in a household work full time and still fall short each month. In Australia, young professionals earn well and own nothing. In Germany, the middle class quietly shrinks. The geography changes. The exhaustion does not. And the origins of this mess are not in New Delhi or Ottawa or Berlin. They are in Washington D.C. All of us are paying the price for a policy disaster handed down from ivory towers, by people most of us never elected and, frankly, never even saw. Consider this: the U.S. money supply (M2) grew by 40% in just 2 years *The Federal Reserve United States Money Supply M2* January 1, 2020: $15.4 trillion January 1, 2022: $21.6 trillion A staggering ~40% increase As of Mar-26, $ 22.6 Tn ( so they never reversed the increased money supply although Covid got over) Unprecedented in the history of the Federal Reserve post-World War 2 era. (Source: FRED) This massive injection of liquidity created asset bubbles across the economy. Wages stayed stagnant. Those who owned capital benefited enormously. Everyone else got the inflation. Most people have not yet identified the cause of their frustration, but they have begun to feel its effects viscerally. And that feeling, that the system simply cannot deliver on their aspirations, has become the quiet tailwind driving a very dangerous behavioural shift. The more people sense that conventional paths are closed off, the more they reach for asymmetric bets, even knowing the odds are stacked heavily against them. The explosion of betting apps and prediction markets, Kalshi, Polymarket, Dream11 and their many cousins, are not trends. They are symptoms of a broken economy. The feverish rise in F&O trading and the massive uptick in exchange volumes are different expressions of the same underlying truth: when people stop trusting the system to reward honest effort, they start gambling on outcomes instead.

@MrBsCoffee30 Higher inflation -> Higher GST. Higher inflation/Weak INR -> Private capex will likely increase.

GST collection at 2.43 lakh crore.. All time high. (8.7 Percent YOY increase)

@gautam_adani @gautam_adani Please support Jain literature + Sadharmik Bhakti.

आज का दिन मेरे लिए विशेष है, एक ओर विश्व श्रमिक दिवस है और दूसरी ओर मेरे विवाह की 40वीं वर्षगांठ। इस पावन अवसर की शुरुआत मैंने अपनी जीवनसंगिनी प्रीति के साथ केदारनाथ धाम में भगवान महादेव के दर्शन और आशीर्वाद से की। चार दशकों की इस यात्रा में, प्रीति का साथ मेरे लिए केवल जीवन का संबल नहीं, बल्कि हर चुनौती में एक शांत शक्ति और हर सफलता में एक विनम्र आधार रहा है, इसके लिए मैं हृदय से उनका आभारी हूँ। हमने महादेव से प्रार्थना की कि वह हमारे देश को निरंतर प्रगति, समृद्धि और शक्ति प्रदान करें, और हम सभी को राष्ट्र निर्माण में अपना श्रेष्ठ योगदान देने की प्रेरणा दें। आज, विश्व श्रमिक दिवस के अवसर पर, मैं अदाणी परिवार के अपने 4 लाख से अधिक साथियों से जुड़ने के लिए एक नई पहल, ‘अपनी बात, अपनों के साथ’ की शुरुआत कर रहा हूँ। यह मेरे लिए केवल एक औपचारिक संवाद नहीं, बल्कि अदाणी परिवार में सभी से दिल से जुड़ने का एक प्रयास है। इस पहल के माध्यम से, मैं समय-समय पर अपने विचार, अपने अनुभव और अपनी सीख साझा करूँगा और उतनी ही विनम्रता से सीखने का प्रयास भी करूँगा। मेरा दृढ़ विश्वास है कि जब अदाणी परिवार के लाखों सदस्य एक-दूसरे के सहयोगी बनकर राष्ट्र निर्माण के संकल्प से जुड़ेंगे, तब हम सिर्फ परियोजनाएँ ही नहीं बनाएँगे, बल्कि विकसित भारत के सपने को साकार करने की दिशा में अपना विनम्र योगदान भी दे सकेंगे। आप सभी का विश्वास और साथ ही मेरी सबसे बड़ी शक्ति है। जय श्रमशक्ति, जय राष्ट्रशक्ति। 🙏

@SamarthNagpal26 Good pratice for retailers: If your thesis is A or you want to do A, don't do it unless you research/read counter thesis of A or opposite views from person/articles/AI on it. Try to find why X SME retail company is not a great investment and why? Find as many counters as you can.

I hate to say this but many companies operating in retail industry particularly in SME segment now lying in shambles were heavily pumped by very established handles Stocks are in absolute shambles & results are flowing in Utter destruction of retailers money

@kodanda_ram__ @EquityValueIn That's impressive for sure. My only point is to keep in mind that this is a 60,000 crore business.

@LearnInvest999 @EquityValueIn Depends for example laurus fcf for this year after 1000 crs capex is around 600 crs and when it generates revenue of 9k crs the fcf may be equivalent to divis….. this is my view and I can be wrong….

Laurus Labs Q4FY26 earnings update , good set of numbers here , been owning for almost 2 years , the Giant CDMO is here , see below tweet in 2024 for when I wrote on the iceberg CDMO at Laurus , call notes at 6 PM IST ( disc: invested and biased at 360 from more than 1.5 years , no financial reco or advice)

🚨 One litre of ethanol needs 10,000 litres of water. 🙏

@IndianSoul22 @manamuntu No one is teaching critical thinking (antidote to radicalism), personal finance, risk taking, entrepreneurship, civic sense, mental models from munger, taleb, scientific temperament. Focus should be on learning how to learn but even teachers are not trained/capable.

@manamuntu GoI sleeps - both political leadership & bureaucracy. No parental awakening and curriculum change to inculcate character, morals, nationalism, faith, wisdom and reach out.

If you train one woman, you train a family. If you train a family, you train a generation. If you train a generation, you train a nation....

@aravind @DrSJaishankar @d_jaishankar @MEAIndia @sjaishankaroffc

MEA India must ensure foreigners who had come to India, made videos de-humanizing Indians and disparaging India, must never get visas again to visit. A team must be setup to scour Youtube, TikTok, Insta and blacklist them. Don't allow India's adversaries sponsored psyop influencers into India. Let them cry they didn't get a visa. That's all they can do. There must be no free speech or monetization at the expense of India and Indians for foreigners. Especially those on the payrolls of racist supremacists and religious fanatics around @MEAIndia @MOS_MEA @DrSJaishankar.

@sandeepjethwani Classic Perpetuity Fallacy with a lack of Mortality Weighting. If you want to see it, assume life expectancy of 90 years, run your spreadsheet calculations for someone who wants to retire by 89. How much do they need? 450+ crores for last year of their life?

If the 40 crore retirement number I shared shocked you, this post is for you. Here is what I said. If you are 40 today, spending 2 lakh rupees a month, with no EMIs to service, and you want to retire at 60, you will need 40 crore rupees. The comments had a lot of pushback. The number feels impossible. It is not. Let me show you why. Two assumptions drive this number. Inflation and life expectancy. Both are higher than what regular retirement calculators assume. Both are right. Start with inflation. Retail CPI in India is 5 to 6%. That is the inflation of atta, dal, and bus fare. It is not the inflation of an affluent household. Private healthcare in India runs at 12 to 14% every year. Domestic staff wages in metros are growing at 10 to 12%. Premium school fees, international travel, club memberships. All of these inflate between 8 and 10%. Blend them and you get 9%. That is the real inflation rate of an HNI lifestyle. Now life expectancy. Most Indians plan their retirement assuming they will live to 75 or 80. That is what national averages suggest. But national averages are pulled down by infant mortality and rural data. They have nothing to do with how long a healthy, affluent Indian actually lives. For a couple aged 65 today, there is a 71% probability that one partner reaches 85. A 44% probability that one reaches 90. Now the math. 2 lakh rupees a month at 9% inflation becomes 11 lakh 20 thousand rupees a month at age 60. That is an annual spend of 1.34 crore. Plan for 30 years of retirement. Your retirement portfolio which is focused on capital preservation (60% fixed income: 40% equity) earns 9%. Your Inflation is also 9%. Your real return is zero. So corpus needed equals 30 multiplied by 1.34 crore. That is 40 crore. Here is the good news. This number is not as far away as it looks. At 12% returns before retirement, 40 crore at age 60 translates to roughly 4 crore today for a 40 year old. The point of this message is not to scare you. It is to make sure you understand the silent erosion of purchasing power that inflation causes.

@SamarthNagpal26 Independent thinking is not even dependent on logic, rationality, ground reality or common sense. That's what true indepence of thought is all about 😜

P.S. Nothing to highlight but the delusional takes out there, fetched far away from reality You don’t want people to be independent thinkers by doling out random Gyan & you want them to think everyday their future might end in a rabbit hole against your delusional targets :)

We are in a world where- MBA isn’t needed to get a job, to raise capital Reading isn’t necessary to invest that capital But we must reach a corpus of a few 10s of crores in the long run to live a secured life Take a pause & think in your head,it’s as sweet as it can get :)

@suru27 I have some stocks with the common thesis being structural tailwinds + defendable moat/increasing moat due to some transformation. The reason why I have them is I got entry at better valuations which is hard in hot stocks that have great news/results around the corner.

Do you have any 5+ years buy and hold stocks in your portfolio ? If yes, write the name and thesis that why it deserves to be held for longer irrespective of stock, sector and market cycles ?

@aravind @chanchal001

Great thread exposing the infowar and psyops by Pakistan to incite Indians and destabilize India. Recently, I have been noticing "south asia" accounts instigating Indians under PM Modi's posts. But their psyops on X is nothing compared to what they do on FB & Insta as "Indians."

@NetramDefence @chanchal001

THREAD🧵 Gensis of Pakistan's "War from India's East" EXCLUSIVE: We studied a Pakistan-based information warfare wing for 3 months. The origins of this operation traces back to August 2025, when Pakistan's Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir stated "We'll start from India's East." This marked Pakistan's shift from a western-front-centric posture to exploiting vulnerabilities in India's Northeast. 1/10 @aravind @ShekharGupta @spvaid @sneheshphilip @AnchorAnandN @ARanganathan72 @jsaideepak @major_pawan @easterncomd @official_dgar @OsintTV @HMOIndia @AmitShahOffice @AmitShah @PMOIndia @DefenceMinIndia @SandeepUnnithan @manupubby @ShivAroor @VishnuNDTV @gauravcsawant @dubey_ajit

@manamuntu How about Annamalai in the list? Objectively he has some qualities most lack. Intelligence, aggression, energy to start with. Experience and depth will only increase with time. @IndianSoul22

I am not trying to infuse myself here or challenge the status quo! I am not groomed enough to hold the apex office. I like working behind the shadows and it will take atleast 3-4 years of grooming to even aim for it 😶‍🌫️ 🤌

@riteshmjn Huge Reflexivity. Behavior impacts price impacts behavior loop. I am sure it will turn pretty soon.

*When we were ‘fragile’, they invested. Now that we’re ‘strong’, they’re leaving* When India’s macros were considered “fragile” in 2013, a term coined by Morgan Stanley and reiterated by many, FII flows into Indian equities were still largely positive, averaging around ₹80,000 crore annually. The prior decade was later dubbed a “lost decade.” Ironically, India claimed to be the fourth-largest economy until recently, when GDP underwent a haircut while the rupee depreciated by nearly 90% since 2012. FIIs have been retrenching. Over the 11 years to FY26, flows were positive in only two years; the last three years alone have seen close to ₹3 lakh crore of outflows. Yet those same MNC houses that once labeled India fragile more than a decade ago now consider the current macro intact and strong. The CEA, of course, has been parroting the same line. The irony could not be starker. ( via Dhananjay Sinha of Systematix)