Lockbreaker

175 posts

Lockbreaker

Lockbreaker

@Lockbreaker3

If I'm posting it's because the alternative is to wear a sandwich board with THE END IS NIGH drawn on it shouting at strangers to repent before the apocalypse.

Katılım Şubat 2022
113 Takip Edilen14 Takipçiler
Lockbreaker
Lockbreaker@Lockbreaker3·
The Kharg invasion is going to be when this all spirals out of control permanently. I don't think Trump is going to be talked out of this "knock out blow" he's been sold on, and I don't think he understands that Iran will retaliate against GCC infrastructure again as a result.
Anas Alhajji@anasalhajji

The regime has spent years building alternative ways to export its crude, said Anas Alhajji, a global energy markets expert. There is evidence that the regime is beginning to use them. He said there is a false impression in the media and the Trump administration that if Kharg “was bombed or it was occupied, then it’s the end of the oil revenues and probably the end of the regime.” “All of this is complete nonsense,” Alhajji said. Trump is poised to take Iran’s Kharg Island. Here’s what could unfold next. politi.co/4bSRZYQ via @politico

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Lockbreaker
Lockbreaker@Lockbreaker3·
@AndrewPerpetua I find it very difficult to ignore the Epstein angle with this IMO. The only way his actions make any kind of sense is if either Israel and Russia have serious leverage on him. The public files also make it clear that both scenarios are plausible.
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Andrew Perpetua
Andrew Perpetua@AndrewPerpetua·
One of the most amazing aspects of the Trump administration is how they obviously cannot even understand concepts that are blatantly obvious. Like, no matter how obvious it is that Ukraine has dramatically helped the US, and directly aided Trump personally, he cannot understand.
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Lockbreaker
Lockbreaker@Lockbreaker3·
@MalcolmNance What off ramp? We killed Mojtaba's whole family. If Trump doesn't finish the job his family will have a target on their backs for the rest of their lives. He's stuck in this for the long haul, the only thing he's waffling on is doing it without thoroughly fucking his presidency.
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Malcolm Nance
Malcolm Nance@MalcolmNance·
It’s official. They’re fucking winging this. Yes this MEU was scheduled for an April deployment to INDOPACOM but it will take: - 22 days to get to the PG at max speed sustained (which means no port visits or stops) - 30 days to get there at average cruising speed. So clean up or backup for an unplanned amphibious campaign? No one knows. They’re winging it. At this point prepare for mobilization of the 82nd airborne, 75th Rangers, 10th Mountain and all the SOF in the world. Trump needs and offramp or this war will go on for the next year after he declares victory.
OSINTdefender@sentdefender

The Boxer Amphibious Ready Group (ARG), comprised of the USS Boxer (LHD-4), USS Comstock (LSD-45), and the USS Portland (LPD-27) with the embarked 11th Marine Expeditionary Group (MEU), is on its way to the Middle East after departing the U.S. west coast for deployment.

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Lockbreaker
Lockbreaker@Lockbreaker3·
Also, doesn't Kharg count as energy infrastructure? Won't Iran bomb refineries again if we attack it?
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Lockbreaker
Lockbreaker@Lockbreaker3·
So if we keep doing decapitation strikes on Iran, doesn't that mean we'll eventually land on an extremist who will blow up the GCC oil infrastructure regardless of our actions? They only need a day or two apparently to fuck things up. Sounds kind of like an unsound strategy.
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Lockbreaker
Lockbreaker@Lockbreaker3·
@mattyglesias People aren't getting that killing a murderous dictator's whole family means that you *cannot leave them in power.* If Trump doesn't end the regime his whole family will have targets on their backs for the rest of their lives. Literally suicidal for the Trump clan to back down.
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Lockbreaker
Lockbreaker@Lockbreaker3·
@secretsqrl123 They're probably announcing deployments one at a time to soften the blow. We'll find ourself with 200k on the way soon enough. Trump can't leave this regime alive after what he's done, he knows they will come after him and his family.
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david D.
david D.@secretsqrl123·
so now its the 31st MEU japan 26th MEU west coast and now the 11 MEU west coast that will be a total of 3300 ground troops. will not get there for about 30 days more probable is that the aircraft carrier in the araban sea is being pulled out and the 3 assault carriers will replace it. we dont have any other carriers that can get to sea on time.
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Lockbreaker
Lockbreaker@Lockbreaker3·
It's seriously Boxer Rebellion levels of delusion. Big Dick Energy doesn't make you bulletproof. If you don't believe me, I invite you to enlist and test that theory against an Iranian FPV drone.
Analytica Camillus@AnalyticaCamil1

Genuinely, just cut this shit out. This is the same variety of jingoistic hubris that lead to the Russian military getting its teeth kicked in 30km outside of Kyiv. 99% of USMC’s successful reputation is a product of its very smart and very aggressive war planners (arguably the best in DoD), and I can almost guarantee to you and everyone else that they’re looking at this proposed operation and trying their best not to look at the White House and tell them to “go fuck yourselves with a rusty pipe.”

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Lockbreaker
Lockbreaker@Lockbreaker3·
@RobertJMolnar I think they're slow rolling the deployment to soften the blow. We'll get a few thousand deployed every few days until we have a semblance of a framework of an invasion force.
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Lockbreaker
Lockbreaker@Lockbreaker3·
@Teoyaomiquu I'm not a pro-Ukraine Republican to be clear, I just think this is a disaster for Russia. I doubt the comms shutdown right before this happened was a coincidence.
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Lockbreaker
Lockbreaker@Lockbreaker3·
@Teoyaomiquu It fucks their sugar daddy China and splits their attention, which is probably a net negative for Russia on the whole even with more cash. Morale, recruitment, and manpower are issues not solved by lining oligarch pockets.
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✙ Constantine ✙
✙ Constantine ✙@Teoyaomiquu·
somehow pro ukraine republicans are trying to spin this as actual 4d chess that will help Ukraine. Literally as russian economy was about to collapse. Let's take the sanctions off and hike the oil prices.
Liveuamap@Liveuamap

The US further eases Russian oil sanctions, now allowing also the sale of petroleum refined products (until now it was only crude oil) that were loaded into tankers by March 12. The relaxation is valid until April 11 iran.liveuamap.com/en/2026/19-mar…

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Lockbreaker
Lockbreaker@Lockbreaker3·
@calvinfroedge They're losing Ukraine due to low recruitment, low morale, and comms issues. Cash doesn't buy those things. China is their only backer and I think them being fucked is on the whole worse for their war effort than energy revenue. If Russia was at peace they would be winning.
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🏴‍☠️
🏴‍☠️@calvinfroedge·
@Lockbreaker3 How in the world do you figure Russia is going to get screwed by the energy crisis? Their economy is basically energy, food, weapons, and metals.
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Lockbreaker
Lockbreaker@Lockbreaker3·
@Dan1763 @citrinowicz All the same, I'd rather only have Lee Harvey Oswald after me than Lee Harvey Oswald and the entire intact Quds Force.
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Dan Smith
Dan Smith@Dan1763·
@Lockbreaker3 @citrinowicz They are going to do that or try to regardless, the Indians tool 20 years to get the officer who ordered the Amritsar massacre, the IRA got revenge on the battalion that did Bloody Sunday 7 years after the event. Murder schoolgirls and someone is coming for you
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Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش@citrinowicz·
The administration now faces a stark choice—one it can no longer avoid. A. Use force to reopen the strait, knowing full well that any strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure will trigger retaliation. This is not a limited operation. It’s escalation—potentially rapid, and potentially uncontrollable. There are no half-measures here: if Washington wants the strait open, it will have to fight for it. B. Accept reality, cut losses, and pursue a deal with Tehran over the terms of access. Politically unpalatable? Absolutely. But when global oil flows and the stability of Asian markets are at stake, strategic necessity tends to override rhetoric. What last night made unmistakably clear is this: there is no clean solution. No surgical fix. No easy win. The longer the administration pretends otherwise, the higher the cost will be #IranWar‌
Javier Blas@JavierBlas

The US and its allies are making a concerted effort to de-escalate the oil/gas war, having witnessed that Iran was willing -- and able -- to climb the escalation ladder very quickly. To be seen whether Tehran plays ball. Whatever the case, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

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Lockbreaker
Lockbreaker@Lockbreaker3·
Have we just memory holed that Trump killed the ayatollah's whole fucking family? How is he supposed to find a "diplomatic off ramp" that doesn't leave a murderous dictator with a personal vendetta against the entire Trump clan in power?
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Lockbreaker
Lockbreaker@Lockbreaker3·
@APHClarkson If you're paying attention it's obvious that B is not realistic for Trump personally. You simply do not kill an ideological terrorist dictator's entire family and then abandon the war and leave them in power. That would literally be signing his whole family's death warrant.
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Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
These kinds of posts are always framed in terms of how B. is surely the only option any sane US President would take only for Trump to choose A. less than 48 hours later
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش@citrinowicz

The administration now faces a stark choice—one it can no longer avoid. A. Use force to reopen the strait, knowing full well that any strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure will trigger retaliation. This is not a limited operation. It’s escalation—potentially rapid, and potentially uncontrollable. There are no half-measures here: if Washington wants the strait open, it will have to fight for it. B. Accept reality, cut losses, and pursue a deal with Tehran over the terms of access. Politically unpalatable? Absolutely. But when global oil flows and the stability of Asian markets are at stake, strategic necessity tends to override rhetoric. What last night made unmistakably clear is this: there is no clean solution. No surgical fix. No easy win. The longer the administration pretends otherwise, the higher the cost will be #IranWar‌

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Keşfet

@AndrewPerpetua @MalcolmNance @mattyglesias @secretsqrl123 @RobertJMolnar @NBCNews @Teoyaomiquu @calvinfroedge