Michael Ray

@infantrydort @johnkonrad

The most dangerous leader isn’t the one who breaks the rules. It’s the one who follows them perfectly… while everything collapses around him. Because he mistakes process for judgment. And by the time he sees the difference, it’s too late.

@DLoesch @EWErickson I guess I’m not “based” enough to understand what this means. You people are so weird.

Joe Kent is the new Alexander Vindman.

@RadioFreeTom We love Nicias because he was woke like us. Sincerely, 2-time Naval War College Grad

200 beeeelion dollars for a war that was supposed to end in a week or two. This feels like the Nicias strategy: Take something crazy to the assembly so they'll vote it down. (You learn about Nicias in some of the war colleges)

@EFischberger @EWErickson Maybe playing footsie w Putin hasn’t worked out as well as planned, eh maga?

If their profile looks like this, it's a Russian psy-op. 100% of the time, every single time.

@JTAlexander_ @brithume Hi JT - what is the objective of this war?

This really doesn't even warrant effort to actually refute, but for the sake of any genuine audience that doesn't know how to measure warfare, I'm going to demonstrate real quick how we know Iran is getting curb stomped. First, consider the image with Blue X's and Red O's. This is a map of every confirmed strike since the war started. Even without considering timing and impact, the mere quantity here is significantly in favor of the Combined Forces—the Blue X's. Second, consider the video. This is the same data, but separated by day of event from February 28 to March 15. You can visually see the decline in return fire from Iran. Since I'm limited on images, in the comments I'll share the graphs breaking down this decline in even more detail. Third, consider Iran's missile ranges and choice of targets. While their posturing is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has shifted its oil exports to the Red Sea. This is well within range of Iran's higher-end ballistic missiles—yet, they aren't attacking it. This is because they are rationing missiles for more immediate threats; something done when someone is on the defensive with limited ability to resist. Fourth, consider the discrepancy between rhetoric and action. While Iran's posturing is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, their closure of the Strait appears to primarily be in name only. There have been no confirmed attacks on ships either in the Strait or the Gulf in six days. SIX DAYS. That's the last third of this war so far. Fifth, consider the choice of Combined Force targets. While Iran is attempting to attack critical oil infrastructure, the IDF is targeting local police and Basij stations. The Combined Forces are actually running out of military targets and are now simply shaping the country for an internal overthrow. Sixth, and probably the most obvious is to just look at the numbers and identities of losses. These are not even close. At the very least Iran has lost: 1x Supreme Leader 2x Defense Minister 1x Head of the Military Office of the Supreme Leader 1x Armed Forces Chief of Staff 1x Supreme National Security Secretary 1x IRGC Commander 1x Minister of Intelligence 1x Head of Intelligence Directorate 1x National Basij Commander These aren't just what the Combined Force reports—this is what Iran acknowledges! There is no steelman of the "Iran is winning" nonsense. Its complete and utter nonsense. You can argue, though I disagree, about economic or political ramifications, but any suggestion that Iran is actually militarily winning is absolutely retarded.

@bonchieredstate @EWErickson Good to see that one party’s voters are pushing to the normie center.

Today in this episode of “Twitter is not real life,” Ro Khanna’s supposedly immense influence resulted in every single one of these socialists losing.

@johnkonrad If pointing out that the lack of a defined objective in war is a problem constitutes a “meltdown,” perhaps you’re drinking too much Kool-aid.

In elite Massachusetts circles, the meltdown I’m hearing most often: “There’s no end state for Iran.” What actually drives them crazy? No one asked them first. What really infuriates them? If they don’t know, they can’t influence it.

@CynicalPublius CP blocked me for this?!?! Pathetic. No wonder he tries to remain anonymous.

@CynicalPublius Wearing the uniform (or having done so) honorably requires one to call out Hegseth’s disgusting comments. You’re supposed to be an American. Act like one.

Don't you have anything better to do than cheer on the Theo-Fascist mullahs of Iran? You're supposed to be an American. Act like one.

@CynicalPublius called me a name and then blocked me. Total alpha move. No wonder he hides his identity…

@KurtSchlichter What is our desired outcome in this “excursion?”

But I was told by a bunch of random dip shits that we were losing

@KurtSchlichter Great way to dodge the issue, Kurt!

This guy is such a loser. He’s like always 15 new cycles behind.

@johnkonrad @mercoglianos What ship(s) did you command/master and when?

Apparently there is a meme going around where I’m @mercoglianos’ cabin boy or something. No no no AI actually got this right. The captain stands behind the junior enlisted sailor at the helm.

@DavidClarke I used to live in Fitzpatrick’s district before returning to RI. You have my attention now. 👍🏼

@MichaelRay02835 (P2) I like Charlie, but I’m more Brian Fitzpatrick… independent-minded, serious, and focused on what actually works for the people I represent.

If Rhode Island Republicans keep borrowing a national identity, we’ll keep losing like a national party in a state that isn’t buying it. The path forward is simple: less theater, more backbone, and a party rooted in Rhode Island. open.substack.com/pub/clarkespea…

@marcthiessen @EWErickson Explain how we (in the US) don’t depend on the flow of this global commodity, genius. Are you endorsing autarky?

You’re the ones who depend on oil through the Strait of Hormuz genius, not us.

@jarvis_best @EWErickson Things going great in Magastan. Couldn’t happen to a better bunch of “patriots.”

The Four Types of Republicans:

@FrankLuntz Agreed. Unfortunate that Senate GOP rejected Rosen’s bill to do exactly that.

This shouldn’t even be a debate – paychecks for TSA agents and air traffic controllers should always be uninterrupted.

@RadioFreeTom Yeah, but Hegseth has a solution for that problem that doesn’t require War Colleges or thinking/capable military officers: the strategy is whatever Trump says it is today, and it’s always brilliant. Also lots of memes and push-up videos.

One of the reasons the Naval War College was reformed in the 1970s was to prevent the civil-military breakdown that led to Vietnam. The military just teaching the military will replicate the problem VADM identified: Civilians will simply supplant military advice and ignore it.

@ianbremmer We’re going to get defined objectives for the war soon. Very soon - Marco and Jared are working on it. 2 more weeks.

this explains the problem. even with complete us military dominance over iran, iran can continue to disrupt the strait of hormuz and, with it, the global economy.