Tim 🇦🇺

Albanese on Monday acknowledged in his most pessimistic remarks to date that Australians would continue to cop “economic aftershocks” long after the conflict ends, as he declared that the decades of global economic growth enjoyed since WWII are over. theage.com.au/politics/feder…

I hope those advising the U.S. President are making the following points clear: 1. Iran sees itself as having achieved a significant strategic gain. From its perspective, if its terms are not met, there will be no meeting in Islamabad, even at the cost of renewed escalation. 2. Iran is unlikely to reopen the straits without a full ceasefire, which it believes was promised, even under pressure or threats. 3. Tehran has no intention of offering new concessions beyond what has already been discussed with the U.S. It views itself as negotiating from a position of strength, so why concede more? 4. The “Axis of Resistance” operates as an interconnected system. As long as fighting continues in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq and potentially the Houthis, are likely to remain engaged. Iran does not see itself as having been defeated. It did not seek these negotiations, and it is unrealistic to expect concessions at the table if, in its own assessment, it has not conceded on the battlefield.

Today a huge US military airlift continued to the Middle East despite a ceasefire...

According to Tasnim News Agency, reports claiming that an Iranian negotiating team has arrived in Islamabad for talks with the United States are “completely false,” citing an informed source. - The same source says negotiations remain suspended until Washington fulfills its ceasefire commitments on Lebanon and Israel halts its ongoing strikes. - This is Tehran reaffirming that the Lebanon file remains a non-negotiable precondition for any diplomatic track to resume. #Iran #Iranwar

Between Netanyahu and Trump, it is clear we are in a stalemate of aggressive stupidity.

NBC: In a phone call Wednesday, Trump asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to pull back on the strikes to help ensure the success of the upcoming negotiations, a senior administration official told NBC News. Trump confirmed that conversation in his interview with NBC News on Thursday, saying the Israelis were “scaling back” operations in Lebanon. “I spoke with Bibi and he’s going to low-key it. I just think we have to be sort of a little more low-key,” Trump said. @Petereporter

NO NEW REQUESTS FOR SHIP INSURANCE IN GULF – CNBC CITING INDUSTRY SOURCES (most tanker owners are still not actively preparing or committing to transit the Strait of Hormuz — they are holding back due to unresolved safety concerns, uncertainty over Iranian permissions/tolls, and lack of full confidence in the fragile ceasefire, even if some insurance options exist.)

The Strait ‌of Hormuz is shut and Iran must open it without conditions and be held accountable for damages after attacks on facilities, United Arab Emirates state oil giant ADNOC's CEO said on Thursday. "Iran has made clear - through both its statements and actions - that ⁠passage is subject to permission, conditions and political leverage. That is not freedom of navigation. That is coercion," Jaber, ​also UAE minister of industry and advanced technology, wrote.

Iran Deputy Minister Says Ships Need Army Consent to Pass Hormuz Oil tankers and other vessels seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz must liaise with the Iranian military to ensure their safe passage, the country’s deputy foreign minister told ITV in a television interview. “The Strait of Hormuz is open, but of course each tanker and vessel should make necessary arrangements with Iranian authorities to securely pass,” Saeed Khatibzadeh said. There are “technical restraints” resulting from the recent attacks on Iran and the narrowness of the waterway that require caution, he added. (Bloomberg)

NEW: Iran says its delegation will attend Islamabad peace talks only if Israel halts attacks on Lebanon. Deputy FM tells ITV News any regional peace must include Lebanon and that Iran held back from retaliation last night after US urged Israel to stop strikes. - ITV Interview

Goldman (Flood): Gross leverage in our overall prime book is 310% which is 95th percentile on 1 yr lookback and 99th percentile on 5 yr look back. Why has gross remained so stubbornly high since the war started? Bottom line HFs have held onto their higher conviction longs and have aggressively hedged out macro headline risk via shorting etfs and index. Our prime books shows HF short exposure in US Macro Products at ~12% of total gross exposure...highest since covid... this cover bid should hold (and potentially accelerate) today.

Only 4 vessels have managed to cross the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire started, none tankers -NYT The last transit was yesterday morning, no vessels have completed a crossing since the IRGC declared Hormuz closed due to ceasefire violations.

CEASEFIRE DAY 2: None of the LNG tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf appear to be heading towards Hormuz 🚢⚠️ They're all idling. Without this traffic resuming, it will be challenging for Qatar to significantly restart production at the world's biggest LNG export plant

Some officials in the Middle East believe there is a significant chance that the war between the US and Iran will flare up again with even greater intensity despite the ceasefire-WSJ

No oil tankers have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire began, according to Kpler, a global ship-tracking firm -NYT

Iranian state TV says “there is over a 90% probability“ that the attacks on the Siri and Lavan oil facilities (a few hours after the ceasefire) were carried out by the UAE using Mirage jets, and that #Iran’s strike on Fujairah was a response to it. In the meantime, there is a growing discussion in Iran’s expert community that the UAE, likely in coordination with #Israel, wants the ceasefire to collapse and to keep the United States engaged in the war.

$ACWI Most probably this is not a breakaway gap. It didn't form at a pattern boundary. Because of that I see higher probability of it getting filled soon.

Captain Obvious. It is not even a European Power.

FT has confirmed what we all speculated from the “Draft for Pakistan PM” post. The White House pushed Pakistan into brokering this “ceasefire” as Trump was desperate for an out. Iran had to be dragged to the table, which is why their demands have not changed and why this peace will breakdown as neither want to budge on terms. Trump is trying to negotiate as if he has leverage, and he doesn’t. But his inability to cede points, means we’re not any closer to a resolve.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was hit by a drone attack Wednesday afternoon, per a person familiar with the matter, reports @S_Elwardany and @A_DiPaola17. Attack was first reported by FT. The pipeline has become crucial for KSA to re-route oil flows from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. As of late March, the pipeline was pumping oil at its full capacity of 7MBD.

Japan and Australia are deepening defense ties, with a focus on jointly developing and producing long-range missiles and drones, Australia's defense chief has said, as concerns mount over strained U.S. weapon stockpiles. ebx.sh/jHc9ur