Minerva Capital

How I use my daily watchlists Early on I would spend a lot of time and effort building detailed watchlists and then hesitate to pull the trigger on the trading day. Since then, I've streamlined my process with these rules. They're not foolproof but they've been a great help: On the long side I look for "buying pressure" in the form of RVOL (Relative Volume). The stock needs to have a higher than average RVOL along with the price being in green. This tells me that others are also buying in along with me and there's support to hold up the price. Ideally I also want the price and RVOL to be higher than $SPY intraday. On the short side, volume isn't as important. The "selling pressure" I am looking for is how far the stock has declined intraday. That is shown by the Daily Closing Range. In the above example the first stock is showing a stronger selling pressure than the second one. Hope that helps. Nothing is ever foolproof in the markets, but having rules that you can follow consistently helps. Not financial advice. Happy to hear any feedback / questions.

@JaguarAnalytics I just want to say thanks for everything you do and share. Have a great weekend!

There is a very easy way to earn a block from me. All you have to do is say I have TDS. That's it. So, please go ahead. You are all cordially invited to get on the list. Thank you! 🙏

Seeing some panic finally set in. I booked profits on a lot of hedges. My roadmap remains a replica of last year until proven otherwise: consolidation below the 200DMA, weak bounce and capitulation bottom. TBH, I didn't expect us to slice thru Nov lows so easily.

These are the bottom indicators I track. We're not there yet IMHO. In 2020 and 2025 we had a supportive Fed / fiscal impulse. Unfortunately in 2022 we didn't, similar to today. Another thing I am tracking is a change in Trump's posts, not seeing any improvement there either.

We are below the 200SMA on $SPY. Things are playing out eerily similar to last year. The bottom panel on this chart is the TTM Squeeze indicator which has fired lower after a long period of compression. Happy to expand on my thoughts if anyone is interested.

@wallstengine 😅

EXTREME FEAR

@Maximus_Holla Suggest moving over to Fidelity. It is the most reliable to them all. I know its easier said than done but you have to bite the bullet sooner or later

Does your portfolio go down if your broker does not work ?

👉 isthisthebottom.com?

@JacobShap Hey Jacob, I have been learning a lot from you and would love to hear your take on this development. Have you factored it in / ruled it out? x.com/MinervaCap/sta…

Are we really so ignorant of history? The rise of the Nazis is directly linked to the onerous terms imposed by the victors after ww1

Gemini notes. Just a hypothesis and would love to hear your views.

This seems to be underappreciated but may have huge ramifications. Possible that the Iran war ends only when Putin gets what he wants in Ukraine and the real calls are being made in Moscow (which BTW is the only one to benefit from prolonging the war). politico.eu/article/putin-…

@sonusvarghese @RyanDetrick Google CFO deserves praise for locking in 100-year bonds right before s* hit the fan :)

Too much focus on just gasoline/headline inflation 🤦‍♂️ Core goods was up pre-crisis & its not just tariffs! PPI for electronic components +10% in Feb (pre-crisis & non-tariffed) 3M: +58% annualized Core services 3M ~ 4.7% New blog 👇 @RyanDetrick carsongroup.com/insights/blog/…

Instead the 2026 scenario is a highly volatile hybrid of 2022 (Russia-Ukraine conflict) and 1973 (OPEC embargo). The 2022 bear market was one of the worst because it gave false hope in the shape of may rallies that failed, eventually bottoming in October (see chart).

The first thing that comes to mind in looking at these charts is whether we can end up in the 2 positive scenarios (1979 / 1990). Unfortunately the conditions are not similar. Gemini notes below. x.com/mark_ungewitte…

@PatternProfits Yeah that's a good area to monitor - thanks for the tip. The other one I am looking at is a 650 test on $SPY.

@MinervaCap A likely area for a sweep, but needs to break first.

PWL for $ES unmitigated. Long way down for $NQ for a Friday.

$RYTM FDA approval came in early after market close y'day. Sold the calls on a double. x.com/MarcJacksonLA/…

Picked up $RYTM April $100 calls based on Gemini analysis of Jaguar's Hidden Angles x.com/JaguarAnalytic…

Sure I did another post below that on what I'd like to see for a true bottom and I don't think we're there yet. Seeing too much complacency still. The only subsectors bullish are the ones that benefit from this conflict: select oil & gas and associated plays, downstream sectors like fertilizers, and defense.

Would love to hear more on this. The long compression period before the fire is what makes the TTM squeeze so powerful on higher timeframes. When $SPY squeezes for that long and then fires bearish below the 200SMA, the momentum usually has real legs. I run a scanner that tracks squeeze duration across the S&P 500 and the longer the compression, the more reliable the direction tends to be. Are you seeing any individual sectors still holding bullish squeeze setups or is it pretty much bearish across the board?

@JaguarAnalytics Hey Fahad, why not open up a separate subscriber base here on FinTwit for these daily Hidden Angles posts using the X Subscriber feature at maybe $20/mo? Can also become a funnel to move folks into your regular subscription packages. Just a suggestion.

Hidden Angles -- March 18 jaguaranalytics.com/wp-content/upl…

@MalibuInvest Yeah both can make money on different timeframes. I am at +330%

Already have 37% gains on the trade on $EQNR as he has started to fade. #PatiencePays wave 4 down sealed our deal

@EagleVantage202 Given the current macro conditions, I don't think any of the stocks outside of a select few in the Oil & Gas / Defense space are worth looking at right now until the market bottoms. Anyway, I ran your question by Gemini and here's what it thinks. Not Financial Advice.

@MinervaCap When does this find a bottom?

Picked up $IE stock and Mar 22.50 calls and 20/25 call spreads. CEO was with Trump at the rare earths announcement y'day. Gemini notes below. NFA x.com/ivanhoeelectri…

@ethanrkho Phenomenal interview! I've rarely seen so many great insights packed into a ~90 min conversation. 🙏

Ex-Point72 Proprietary Research Head Kirk McKeown on building edge, alpha decay, & why everything that happened on Wall Street is about to happen on Main Street. Kirk McKeown (8.5 years @ Point72 under Steve Cohen | Built primary research at Glenview under Larry Robbins | Now founder of Carbon Arc @CarbonArcAI) "Alpha rewards those who value assets in a cold way. You want to get it right — not be right." We cover: - How alpha creation differs across multi-manager vs. concentrated shops - The 3 vectors every middle office function must move to justify its existence - Why he worked 6-hour Sundays from 2006-2020 — and the math behind it - The TSMC call that signaled semiconductor cancellations before anyone else knew - What the quant revolution on Wall Street tells us about the AI economy today - His framework: 4 market structures, 9 business models, & why they have rules - The MIT beer game & why every business problem is really an inventory problem - His hot take: a top hedge fund launches an enterprise AI lab in 2026 Highlights: 00:00 Intro 04:47 Tutor vs Glenview vs Point72: how edge differs 12:29 How to build “lift” for PMs: at-bats, hit-rate, sizing 18:44 Building research edge: outwork, read, fieldwork 27:16 Personal moat in 2026: analogs, history, decision trees 40:08 “Main Street becomes Wall Street”: what that actually means 44:30 Carbon Arc thesis: “decimalization” of data market structure 46:43 Why the edge migrates to data plus domain context 51:00 How to win in commoditized research: sample size beats anecdotes 01:03:26 Factorizing everything: themes, market structure, business models 01:08:37 Pruning decision trees: signals, scale points, inventory dynamics 01:14:18 Contrarian 2026 take: hedge funds launching enterprise AI labs 01:23:32 Final question: one habit to build career alpha