Nicholas Rage

@citrini I don't have $800 a year to spend on market research but the start of this story is about the most hilarious thing i've read.

Strait of Hormuz: A CitriniResearch Field Trip The Field Report from Analyst #3 is live. citriniresearch.com/p/strait-of-ho…

@bryan_johnson Bryan, thought you would have taken the rectal probe 'for science'

@LynAldenContact congrats Lyn!!!!

My new sci fi thriller, The Stolguard Incident, is now available! Been working on this for a while. Enjoy. :) lynalden.com/the-stolguard-…

@gabrielhaines Here for you bro

3 people still care abt crypto

@bryan_johnson Hope the jet lag doesn’t ruin your sleep!

@PeterSchiff Ill buy whatever your selling

If Bitcoin breaks $50K, which looks likely, it seems highly likely it will at least test $20K. That would be an 84% drop from its ATH. I know Bitcoin has done that before, but never with so much hype, leverage, institutional ownership, and market cap at stake. Sell Bitcoin now!

@zerosandohs @LynAldenContact @GraphCall hahahahaha

@LynAldenContact @GraphCall Lyn come on. If you’re forced to flee your country, as long as you grab the booklet of TSLA shares you’ll be fine once you reach the border. They’ll have a trading desk setup to handle the sale over by the Red Cross tents.

I always thought that many #BTC gurus were insufficiently trained in monetary and capital markets matters to realize the flaws in the #BTC proposal. But I never expected to be vindicated that much. 🤔 Have you heard of stock certificates??? 🤦‍♂️ OPTION 1: direct registration. This is how you can have custody your stocks in your own name instead of in the name of a broker with the CCASS in Hong-Kong. It's a pain the neck sure, but it's perfectly doable. CCASS does allow investors to open an Investor Participant Account, which is essentially a custodial stock account held in the system itself. Mechanically: You can hold your stocks in CCASS under your own investor account rather than entirely relying on your broker’s custody accounts. In the US you have the DRS. OPTION 2: Prepper! Or if you really want to go prepper, you can ask for stock certificates!

@LynAldenContact @chikun LOLOLOL

@chikun ☠️

Imagine being one of the analysts that keeps saying LTCBTC will collapse soon. Then Bitcoin collapses after a year of saying it would crush LTCBTC.

@TheOtherParker_ Does this data show up onchain @_Checkmatey_ ?

This was the highest volume day on $IBIT, ever, by a factor of nearly 2x, trading $10.7B today. Additionally, roughly $900M in options premiums were traded today, also the highest ever for IBIT. Given these facts and the way $BTC and $SOL traded down in lockstep today (normally SOL trades with beta) + the relatively lower liquidations on CeFi exchanges, this leads me to believe that the nexus of the problem lies with a large IBIT holder. IBIT has become the #1 venue for BTC options trading, so my guess is that a hedge fund trading IBIT options is the culprit. If you look at the 13F filings for IBIT (I like whalewisdom dot com), you'll find a number of interesting names that have the majority of their fund in IBIT. In fact, there are a few in there (not naming names) that have 100% of their fund in IBIT, which likely means no cross margin. In fact, the biggest reason to set up a fund to hold a single asset would be to isolate margin, so that if the trade blew up, the brokers wouldn't have claim to any other assets. Interestingly, most of these giant, single asset funds are based in HK. We know that Asian traders, particularly in China, have been deeply involved in the Silver and Gold trade. Silver was down 20% today, which was the 2nd largest 1 day move in a very long time (largest on Jan 30). We also know that the JPY carry trade has been unwinding at an increasingly rapid pace. This leads me to think that the culprit for the IBIT blowup today was 1 or more HK-based non-crypto hedge funds. As @FranklinBi pointed out, the fund(s) being non-crypto would explain why no one sniffed them out. They would likely have few/no crypto counterparties, meaning complete isolation from CT. The last small piece of evidence I have is that I personally know a number of HK-based hedge funds that are holders of $DFDV, which had the worst single down day ever, with a meaningful mNAV decline. The mNAV had been holding steady surprisingly well throughout this pull back until today. One of these fund(s) could have been connected to the IBIT culprit, as I highly doubt a fund taking that large of a position in IBIT and using a single entity structure would only have the one fund. Now, I could easily see how the fund(s) could have been running a levered options trade on IBIT (think way OTM calls = ultra high gamma) with borrowed capital in JPY. Oct 10th could very well have blown a hole in their balance sheet, that they tried to win back by adding leverage waiting for the "obvious" rebound. As that led to increased losses, coupled with increased funding costs in JPY, I could see how the fund(s) would have gotten more desperate and hopped on the Silver trade. When that blew up, things got dire and this last push in BTC finished them off. I have no hard evidence here, just some hunches and bread crumbs, but it does seem very plausible. Let's see if some more concrete evidence floats to the surface here soon. The smoking gun will be a large fund fitting this profile filing a 13F showing a giant IBIT holding going to zero. Unfortunately, if a fund had their IBIT position liquidated today, they wouldn't have to disclose the position change until 45 days after the quarter end, so we'd be looking at mid May for the smoking gun from 13F filings most likely. Hopefully some of you out there with too much time on your hands this weekend can snoop around more. My guess is that word will start to get out, because something of this size is just too hard to hide. Additionally, if the broker was not able to liquidate the fund in time, the broker may have a hole in their balance sheet, which would be even more difficult to hide.

@wassielawyer @god who decides?

Uhhh @god y’all got an insider trading policy up there or nah.

@sama I laughed as I subscribed to Claude

First, the good part of the Anthropic ads: they are funny, and I laughed. But I wonder why Anthropic would go for something so clearly dishonest. Our most important principle for ads says that we won’t do exactly this; we would obviously never run ads in the way Anthropic depicts them. We are not stupid and we know our users would reject that. I guess it’s on brand for Anthropic doublespeak to use a deceptive ad to critique theoretical deceptive ads that aren’t real, but a Super Bowl ad is not where I would expect it. More importantly, we believe everyone deserves to use AI and are committed to free access, because we believe access creates agency. More Texans use ChatGPT for free than total people use Claude in the US, so we have a differently-shaped problem than they do. (If you want to pay for ChatGPT Plus or Pro, we don't show you ads.) Anthropic serves an expensive product to rich people. We are glad they do that and we are doing that too, but we also feel strongly that we need to bring AI to billions of people who can’t pay for subscriptions. Maybe even more importantly: Anthropic wants to control what people do with AI—they block companies they don't like from using their coding product (including us), they want to write the rules themselves for what people can and can't use AI for, and now they also want to tell other companies what their business models can be. We are committed to broad, democratic decision making in addition to access. We are also committed to building the most resilient ecosystem for advanced AI. We care a great deal about safe, broadly beneficial AGI, and we know the only way to get there is to work with the world to prepare. One authoritarian company won't get us there on their own, to say nothing of the other obvious risks. It is a dark path. As for our Super Bowl ad: it’s about builders, and how anyone can now build anything. We are enjoying watching so many people switch to Codex. There have now been 500,000 app downloads since launch on Monday, and we think builders are really going to love what’s coming in the next few weeks. I believe Codex is going to win. We will continue to work hard to make even more intelligence available for lower and lower prices to our users. This time belongs to the builders, not the people who want to control them.

@_Checkmatey_ hahahahaha

Metals have hit a ceiling. Now put the damn floor in for corn, folks. Then we can get back to the regularly scheduled programming of shipping endless mounds of salt to Schiff's house. Restore balance in the force.

@sentdefender @RepGregSteube LOL

@RepGregSteube How can you be a congressman and actually this stupid?

Was a clear sky this am, now this. Didn’t Florida ban spraying chemicals in our sky’s? We need to ban it nationwide. There is no way that water vapor would stay that long in the sky.

@_Checkmatey_ Feels like a moment to abandon any get rich quick fantasies and ask what type of asset do I want my life savings to be in for the next 30 years?

There is a changing of the guard taking place, & it is happening in the tens of billions of dollars per week. There are tremendous volumes of sellers. Newtons third law of Bitcoin, every sold Bitcoin is a bought Bitcoin. There is also a tremendous volume of demand. Sit tight.

A really clean example of the Bitcoin zeitgeist for long-term holders. Holding over the last decade has been hard. You've been on the wrong side of literally every regulation, the media, and your pain in the ass uncle. Portfolio down -75% several times. Bulls are exhausting.

THE LOS ANGELES DODGERS ARE BACK-TO-BACK WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!

@unusual_whales Where do the rare earth materials come from?

"After less than a year, we're now manufacturing the most advanced chips for AI here in the US," Nvidia, $NVDA, CEO has said.

@cobie which coin should I buy Cobie?

He who works in marble finds the shape of his own soul in the stone

@unusual_whales 💩💩

The CEO of Live Nation-Ticketmaster says that concert tickets are "underpriced." He adds there is room to increase prices.

This famous 1943 Norman Rockwell painting, which often makes its way around social media as a popular meme template, has an official title: Freedom of Speech

@cobie Hey Cobie!

Instead of calling the top every day maybe u should call your mother and tell her u love her