MontviewX

@srg444 Vireo or the artist soon to be known as Medterra

New cannabis name entered today in this liquidation. Same themes--this one is a bet on a jockey. Enough to matter, but not enough to get distracted.

@srg444 if you’ve got real duration…

Time to make $, and a time not to lose $. Know the difference.

@DeepSailCapital @Toronto242M CSU could easily be mid single digits on FCF a couple years out if they find some big bargains.

@Toronto242M I agree. This is on the forward basis.

Why does a stock’s valuation over the past 10 years even matter, especially when it’s been overvalued like $CSU.TO? That line of thinking has crushed $CSU.TO longs for the past six months. $CSU.TO and $MELI will keep falling until they’re cheap on a forward basis, not a past.

@cantripguy are the employees in Bangladesh?

it is absolutely clear this man does not know how business works. 300 employees and $20M in sales, that is hilarious

@BCobblaw So the ACOs actually pay the $500/patient? And if they save Medicare money (eg on opioids/recurring hospitalizations), they receive some of the savings as a bonus? I’m having trouble making sense of it @V_arrell

$SBEV

@evantindell The anti-fashion moat. A “fad” for decades now.

The weirdest moat in the world: $CROX product looks so dumb that you would never buy a knockoff. You already look kind of stupid -- you can't also look cheap.

@__OuttaControl_ @srg444 @Walkin_Kiwi @BCobblaw The 2x revenue thing was from me... before the proposed terms came out last week I was assuming SBEV might be paying 1-2x sales. Scott's probably right that 2x was too high at the high end.

Scott makes fair points but I'd push back on a few: The 2x revenue framing doesn't fit - Medterra's EV is $37.6M on $52M of *profitable* 2025 revenue. That's 0.72x revenue, not 2x. For a profitable, scaled CBD operator with federally registered products and 2M customers, that's cheap by any comparable standard. On S3 juice -agreed it won't move on that the same way the MSOs will. But the CBD pilot / FDA compliance framework that dropped last Friday is actually *more* directly valuable to Medterra than S3 is. Medterra is already federally compliant. S3 is a cannabis story. The CMS pilot is a CBD story, and Medterra is an NCCC founding member purpose-built for exactly that pathway. On the capital raise risk- completely valid, that's the real bear case. But at $0.37 you're buying below implied deal value ($0.48) *and* below the preferred conversion price ($0.50). The market is pricing in deal-break risk. If the deal closes, the mismatch between the vehicle price and the operating business is significant. Not saying it's a layup. But 37c for $SBEV does seem silly if Medterra's numbers are clean.

Anyone do real work on $SBEV? I see it. I haven't gone thru the 8K yet. If anyone has done real work, hit my DM. No pretenders please.

@BCobblaw @srg444 @Walkin_Kiwi @__OuttaControl_ I know what Howard's pushing for and I appreciate it.

@MontviewX @srg444 @Walkin_Kiwi @__OuttaControl_ In 2019, Kessler founded the Commonwealth Project…The organization supports a “payer-provider system” for cannabinoid-based therapies through programs like Medicaid Advantage. Kessler believes this model could generate roughly $60 billion in annual savings for the federal govt”

@Greenbackd Isn’t the fact that so many have 3-4% mortgages still the main factor in lower turnover? Anyone doing this analysis?

Worse than the GFC on a sustained basis.

@srg444 @Walkin_Kiwi @__OuttaControl_ @BCobblaw Let's circle back in a month or two

@MontviewX @Walkin_Kiwi @__OuttaControl_ @BCobblaw Hard to see this trade at 2x revenue--yes I get Charlotte's Web proxy--but my view is that balance sheet > income statement should apply thruout. Better ways to make $ in cannabis right now. Won't get the S3 juice (as much), nor does it have the downside protection.

@srg444 @Walkin_Kiwi @__OuttaControl_ @BCobblaw Mostly depends what rules we end up with IMHO, but I was expecting $50-100mm valuation on Medterra. Take the midpoint and we ended up with half of that. Agree with the sizing point though

@MontviewX @Walkin_Kiwi @__OuttaControl_ @BCobblaw I don't think it's that silly tbh. going to need an enormous amount of capital in an industry that doesn't have much. I'd wait to see how it plays out. A chip down is fine, but don't expect this to trade better than the best cannabis companies in the world that trade for dirt

@Walkin_Kiwi @__OuttaControl_ @srg444 @BCobblaw I stand corrected, but 37c is silly

@Walkin_Kiwi @__OuttaControl_ @srg444 @BCobblaw Just looks like some goofy trading (as high as 75c too premarket) on basically zero volume

@srg444 @__OuttaControl_ fivecbd routes me to enjoyfive with a whole lot of 5-15mg THC… hope @BCobblaw can clarify for us

@MontviewX @__OuttaControl_ None on their website. But I’m not close to the biz

@__OuttaControl_ @srg444 I have but I wonder how much of their business are the 5-15mg THC products (and whether those go away)

@MontviewX @srg444 I have not. You?

@__OuttaControl_ @srg444 Thanks for sharing. Have you tried any five cbd products?

$SBEV — went through the actual 8-K filed March 12. Here's what the terms say and where I landed. Medterra is the real asset. $52M+ revenue in 2025, profitable. Rare at any stage in cannabinoids. SBEV is the public vehicle and Medterra is using it to get liquid without a traditional IPO. Deal math: Medterra EV of $37.6M, structured as ~75.2M new shares at $0.50 conversion. Pro forma ~78M shares outstanding. Implied deal value: ~$0.48/share. Stock touched $0.46 today. The squeeze premium is fully bled out, so you're buying at deal math. Key terms from the filing worth knowing: 1) At close, Medterra investors get common stock equal to up to 19.99% of shares outstanding (NYSE change-of-control threshold), remainder in Series X / X-1 convertible preferred at $0.50 2) Series X has downside protection: if stock is below $0.50 at conversion, the conversion price steps DOWN, meaning more shares get issued to preferred holders. Floor is 20% of NYSE American's Minimum Price. This is real dilution risk for commons if the stock stays depressed 3) Medterra's lender warrant dispute is resolved - lender gets Series X-1 preferred in exchange for canceling warrants. One less deal blocker 4) Medterra must deliver $4M minimum working capital at close 5) SBEV must raise enough to retire ~$10.4M in Medterra debt as a condition to close which is dilutive, but necessary 5) $250K liquidated damages if shareholder approval isn't obtained within 120 days of close. Creates urgency The downside protection clause is the honest bear flag here. Below $0.50, preferred holders are insulated at common's expense. So this isn't a clean floor, rather a floor with a trapdoor if the deal drags and the stock stays sub-$0.50 through conversion. That said, the risk/reward at $0.46-$0.48 looks asymmetric if the deal closes: - Brady Cobb on the board. He knows these capital markets structures and has the regulatory relationships that matter - CMS CBD pilot initiative (Trump EO, December 2025) is a real optionality lever - reimbursement pathway for compliant hemp CBD is a potential sector re-rating event - Float is ~2.78M shares. Feb 26 saw 33M trade in a single session - 10x+ the float. Coiled spring on any catalyst - Deal-break downside is ~$0.30-0.35 (pre-announcement range) I've added shares here. Watching for the definitive agreement and Medterra's audited financials as the next confirmations. NFA. Do your own work. I'm long and biased.

@srg444 @__OuttaControl_ ICYMI the proposed Medterra valuation is $37.6mm otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id… $sbev

@MontviewX @__OuttaControl_ I certainly know nothing vs. what's been said

@RationalOptimi5 @breadcrumbsre We’ll see if PE can extend and pretend

@MontviewX @breadcrumbsre Most PE assets are deeply underwater at those levels. Don’t see it happening any time soon for the higher quality companies, even if this is where they should trade at a fundamental level

@lashrecseaird @anandastrategy What an incredible concept

“This reflects months of collaboration and negotiation…Many parties did not get everything they asked for, but everyone got what they needed to legally and safely operate a marketplace.”marijuanamoment.net/virginia-lawma…