Natasha Kuhrt also on @natashakuhrt.bsky.social

Pleased to see my article on #Russian and #Chinese discourses on #UN #peacekeeping out in ‘Asian Perspective’ in good company w/ @M_Kaczmarski &others. Thx to @DrRadchenko for organising the special issue on #Russia #China and to @hofunghung for editing muse.jhu.edu/article/905232

The Middle East war just dropped an unexpected financial gift on Moscow — but the real drama is unfolding inside Russia. R.Politik Bulletin No. 6 (180) is out. IN FOCUS A major oil supply shock from the Iran conflict has narrowed Urals discounts and given the Kremlin short-term breathing room, helped by the temporary US waiver. Putin is treating it as temporary. The budget crisis isn’t. Yet the domestic stories are even more striking: • Moscow hit by sudden selective mobile blackouts where even the official whitelists failed to work, paralysing businesses, officials and daily life while testing new digital control tools. • A prominent investor suddenly faces extremism charges and asset seizure after a bitter family dispute — a case with surprising reach into the highest levels of the hierarchy. • The Defence Ministry is quietly recruiting university students into specialised units, creating growing tensions across the education system. • Siberian farmers — traditionally a loyal base — are protesting serious administrative failures in veterinary services against the backdrop of sanctions, raising uncomfortable questions about political responsibility that could backfire later. • And the most intriguing of all: well-known state propagandist Ilya Remeslo publicly turns against Putin, sparking feverish speculation about an elite split and powerful figures behind him… before quickly ending up in a psychiatric clinic. These reports reveal the internal tensions, quiet experiments and elite dynamics you won’t see anywhere else. The full bulletin is essential reading. rpolitik.com/bulletin/6-202…

This is an amazing resource that will help you understand Russia's genocide against Ukrainians.

It appears that the U.S. is responding quickly, perhaps even preemptively, to Iranian mining attempts by striking high-speed boats and other vessels that can carry naval mines and block the Strait of Hormuz. This will likely be the focus of many air strikes for days.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree that indefinitely extends the ease of obtaining Russian citizenship in the occupied territories, a move that experts say is a sign that Russia is consolidating its occupation by pursuing mass passportization. kyivindependent.com/russia-makes-s…

Interesting report from CSIS on the expansion of Russia’s UAV factory that manufactures Geran drones (Shahed) over time. Noting some of the site protection mechanisms as well.

Thoroughly researched @RiddleRussia piece Russia's National Guard - Rosgvardiya evolving into an infantry-heavy light paramilitary force tasked with keeping domestic security firmly under Vladimir Putin’s control. ridl.io/the-evolution-…

It is deeply alarming, though not entirely surprising, that @DavidLammy on @BBCRadio4 #r4today repeatedly refused to make clear that the British government categorically opposes the idea that Donald Trump should be "involved" Venezuela style in the choice of the next Iranian leader. Asked again and again, he reeled off the PR lines to the effect that the British government's position is that this for the Iranian people to decide, but when asked whether that means Trump should not have a role in this, he would not clarify that this should have nothing to do with Trump. While reinforcing the important of the US-UK special relationship, his stance was clear: he was unable to offer any meaningful criticism of the Trump-Netanyahu war escalation leaving the impression that Britain would ultimately capitulate to whatever the US and Israel decide they want to do. Military and strategic analysts on both sides of the Atlantic are fully aware that the current escalation will not result in a 'victory', but in prolonged regional destabilisation that drives protracted civil war, increases the risks of nuclear proliferation, hikes up Islamist militancy and cements global oil and gas shortages which could trigger a global financial crisis. Any government that cares about the national interests of its people should work toward raising awareness of these catastrophic risks and build a coalition that aims to restore sanity. Yet capitulation in the name of a "national security" alliance that is actually about to fatally degrade British national interests and security is the option dominating the current policy and media discourse.

Gulf states had been using expensive Patriot missiles to defend themselves from Iranian Shahed drones. But their stocks are declining, and they are looking to Kyiv’s experience for cheaper defence. ft.trib.al/JlIcROm

Azerbaijani troops have reportedly been put on combat alert and deployed to the border with Iran, the independent media outlet Qazetchi has reported, citing sources. 🔗 Read more: oc-media.org/azerbaijani-tr…

US interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya mobilised new generations of insurgents and radicalized new waves of terrorists on a vast scale worldwide, including ISIS. The attack on Iran risks deepening inter-generational violence across the Middle East and beyond

This Middle East conflict could still broaden and worsen:

@HannaNotte @wwnorton Congratulations 🥳

A special moment: Returning home from international travel to find physical Advanced Readers Copies of my first book in the mail! WE SHALL OUTLAST THEM is now available for pre-order @wwnorton. Out August 4. wwnorton.com/books/97813241…

@v_vuksanovic @warstudies @KingsCollegeLon Welcome to King’s…👏

Starting today, I am a Lecturer in Foreign Policy and Grand Strategy at @warstudies, @KingsCollegeLon.

@irgarner Yup UK Higher Ed is on a steep descent -we’ll end up with mega universities which will hoover up the remnants from the smaller ones. That’s already happening in fact

Depressing to see my alma mater tearing up the school I graduated from. UK higher education is in a deep, deep abyss.

We're hiring for Team Asia at @CarnegieEndow. We're looking to bring aboard a Washington-based scholar at either the Senior Fellow or Fellow level to lead the work in our @CarnegieSAsia program on India's role in a changing international order. Come work with @MilanV and me, alongside a stellar group of Asia-focused colleagues. Details in the position description below and at the link. Application deadline is March 6. carnegieendowment.applicantpro.com/jobs/3992571

We're very sad to learn of the passing of ex-Battersea cat Palmerston. As one of Battersea's most notable former residents, Palmerston helped shine a light on the joy that rescue cats can bring to people’s lives. He will be missed, but his extraordinary legacy will live on. 💙

“Many people believe things will somehow work out on their own. We cannot rely on ‘somehow.’ We must act now.” Zelenskyy’s most blunt, uncompromising speech on the global stage in Davos. Met with a standing ovation.

Last week I spoke with @Samy_Akil about how the new Syrian government has rebuilt the army and the internal security forces, the challenges they have faced, where they’ve made improvements or failed, and what changes remain to be made. All based on months of field work.

The best experts on Russia’s war economy.

The first point, about "seeing Asia through the lens of China," is especially important. I've been warning administrations of both parties for many years about some of the problems with this. This 2020 essay I wrote for @TheNatlInterest argued pointedly that we lose when we turn upside down a famous aphorism attributed to my former boss and Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. Instead of “getting China right by getting Asia right,” as Armitage liked to put it, it makes relationships and policies in Asia derivative of the U.S. approach to China—signaling to Asian capitals that they are of scant interest to the United States on their own terms because Washington has no dedicated agenda for the region apart from enlisting them as proxies in its strategic competition with Beijing. We usually underperform when we are long on attitude but short on regional strategy. Sadly, a lot of what I wrote in this essay is just endemic to U.S. policy at this point: nationalinterest.org/feature/meetin…