NB3 Financials

welp.. it really cant get much worse. bullish

We started the week with the President threatening to end a civilization. We ended the week with a new AI model that might end civilization (Anthropic's Mythos). So, OF COURSE, the S&P 500 has been up 7 days in a row, adding 2.5%.

"The spread of the dealer gamma length up 5% vs down 5% is the widest we have ever seen. In other words, moves higher will be exacerbated, while moves lower will be buffered, all else equal." -GS Morgan

For the first time in a year, AAII bears have outnumbered AAII bulls for 8 straight weeks Sentiment getting stretched? Similar bear sentiment saw $SPX higher 9 out of 10 times, 3 months later

@stockdatamarket SIGNS OF A BULL MARKET. JUST SAYIN'

What is hilarious for me, that we literally ignored all the negative catalysts starting last week

Quote of the Day: "Good to be aware of what is going on but at the end of the day if stocks are going up then your job is to be long. Once the moving averages turn over and price falls below the 10/20-day your job is to be in cash. It is not more difficult than that. Focus on what you can control, everything else is noise." ~ @Qullamaggie

GASOLINE PRICE CLIMB IN US CPI WAS THE MOST ON RECORD SINCE 1967.

The first #inflation report reflecting the rise in oil prices is here. CPI rose 0.9% from prior month, the largest gain since June 2022. Inflation stands at 3.3% YoY, above the Fed’s 2% target for the 61st straight month. The longest streak since 126 months in 1997.

The NYSE TRIN's 10 dma has skyrocketed this week.

NASDAQ 100 is up 7 consecutive days with a total gain over +9% This happened 10 other times before, and each case saw $NDX higher 2 months later, with an average gain of 8.5%

In August 2020, Exxon was removed from the Dow and Salesforce was added to the index. Total Returns since... Exxon $XOM: +396% Salesforce $CRM: -39%

The $VIX ended the day at 19.49, which is below the level it closed at the day before the Iran war began (19.86 on Feb 27). All is calm again...

CPI drops at 8:30 AM tomorrow. More than half of FinTwit is positioned right now. We studied 266 CPI releases over 22 years. Here's what the data actually says: CPI day is statistically indistinguishable from any other day. Return difference vs non-CPI days: +0.03% (p = 0.65). Volatility difference: none (p = 0.79). All that positioning is for a day that is no different from a random Tuesday. But here's what does matter. The direction at the open predicts the close 72% of the time (p = 0.0007). By 10:30 AM, it's 80%. By 2:30 PM, 97%. The market prices CPI in the first hour. Everything after that is noise. Don't fade the 8:30 reaction. If it gaps down, it closes down. If it gaps up, it closes up. The data is clear. We also split 61 CPI days into hot prints (market sells off) and cool prints (market rallies). The paths diverge at the open and never converge. Hot CPI days drift lower all day, closing at -0.96%. Cool CPI days drift higher, closing at +0.92%. There is no intraday reversal. The one edge that exists: after a hot CPI, 20-day forward returns are +0.88% with a 66% win rate (p = 0.034). In high-vol regimes like right now (VIX at 25.8), it's +2.00% with 69% win rate. If the print is hot tomorrow and the market sells off the data says buy it for a 20-day hold. Three rules for tomorrow: Before 9:30 — wait for the print 9:30 to 10:00 — direction is set After 10:30 — nothing happens $SPX $SPY $QQQ #CPI #Inflation

Hedge funds are more bearish now than they were at the peak Liberation Day bear market (source GS)

WOW. Italian physicist Paolo Di Lazzaro spent five years trying to reproduce the body image seen on the Shroud of Turin—and couldn’t. This is incredible. Want to learn more about the Shroud of Turin? Watch the latest episode of The Deep 👇 bit.ly/TheDeep-Shroud

Today, S&P 500 closed positive for the 7th consecutive day, with a 7%+ gain. Such 7 for 7 streaks are rare, occurring only 9 other times since 1950. Momentum begets momentum. $SPX was higher 100% of the time 2 weeks later, with an average gain of 2.6%. h/t: @RyanDetrick

BREAKING: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell called Wall Street leaders to an 'urgent meeting' on concerns that the latest AI model from Anthropic will 'usher in an era of greater cyber risk', according to Bloomberg report.

Do or Die for $SPX. $SPX has officially traced out a valid 3-wave structure → equal in length of the initial leg up. If another leg down is coming, this is the spot. CPI is the catalyst. Plain and simple. Daily close below 6618 → higher degree sell signal fires. Any peak-to-trough decline of 2.05% or more marks the largest pullback of the rally off the lows — the earliest tell the advance is complete. Sustained rally/close above 6855 (78.6% retrace) would be a bullish warning.

The hardest thing about cutting size during a drawdown is that it feels like giving up. But it's not. It's the opposite. It's saying "I'm going to protect what I have so I can be at full strength when conditions improve." Small size during tough stretches isn't weakness. It's the most aggressive form of defense.

If the VIX tags 18 that’s a lower risk SPX / SPY put entry.