Nino

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Nino

@OHennhoefer

uncertainty & calibration in ai/ml/statistics

Germany / 🇪🇺 Katılım Ağustos 2021
7.5K Takip Edilen604 Takipçiler
Nino
Nino@OHennhoefer·
@jrouldz 5 vs 20 years lmaooooo
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Dr J Rould
Dr J Rould@jrouldz·
Okay now im comparing the semiconductor log chart to the dot com bubble long chart 🤔 hmmmmm
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Christopher Lauer™
Christopher Lauer™@Schmidtlepp·
Irgendjemand gibt grade richtig viel Geld aus, um diesen Tweet mit diversen Fake-Accounts in die Timeline zu drücken. Wahnsinn.
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Sander Tordoir
Sander Tordoir@SanderTordoir·
Germany is the epicentre of the China Shock 2.0 reverberating in global markets In a new paper, @Brad_Setser and I show the shock is a key driver of Germany’s economic malaise. And it's accelerating Berlin needs to stop admiring the problem, and join efforts to fight back 1/
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Rihard Jarc
Rihard Jarc@RihardJarc·
A MUST-read interview with a Siemens employee explaining just how high demand is for energy equipment right now because of AI: 1. The whole situation is shocking even for people who have been in the business for 40 years. They are getting orders that are double the size of what their entire factory can produce in a year. 2. Demand is so high in the last 5-8 months that they don't need to convince or send any analysis (such as CO2 emissions, etc.) to clients because they just want the equipment, because there's so much backlog that they just want to catch the order. 3. Decisions are being made very quickly by clients; the backlog for some of the energy equipment companies is 5-6 years. For transformers, the situation is even more difficult. 4. He mentions that right now, data center builders do not care about sustainability; they just want power at any expense, reliable power. They say they will think about sustainability later. 5. The orders have gone from previous 20-30 MW orders to now 200-500 MW units. Customers have previously wanted to get equipment from different OEMs, but now they prefer an integrated standardized solution. 6. An interesting dynamic is that even though the data center requires 100 MW, the builders are buying N+1 units of gas turbines (so more than just for 100 MW) as backups, as well as having more energy capacity, as they believe they will continue to grow that data center. 7. He does believe there is some double booking going on on transformers and switchgears because of extra-long lead times. 8. Everyone is trying to reduce PUE, and water use effectiveness, but even after improving, they just use the same power to run more compute. 9. The problem is also liquid cooling, as it is expensive, and water availability in many regions is a problem. 10. Margins on equipment in the sector have gone from 4-6%, where they were 2-3 years ago, to 20-23% and in some cases even 40%. The data center builders know the margins are high, but they are fine with it because they just want to get it. found on @AlphaSenseInc
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Nino
Nino@OHennhoefer·
@TacticzH They are at least the buy and hold positions. Wouldn’t want to hold many of the recent winners for years.
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TacticzHazel
TacticzHazel@TacticzH·
Holding $ASML and $TSM will outperform the vast majority of the "bottlenecks" that are identified on a daily basis. Companies like $AAOI, $SNDK and $MU can do well, but a large portion of these type of companies is due to fall off sometime. Looking 5-10 years ahead, $ASML and $TSM, together with $NVDA will be the true center of the AI revolution. And cherry on top, they already make a lot of money. Its not just a growth story. Agree?
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Nikita Bier
Nikita Bier@nikitabier·
Next week I’m headed to Tokyo to meet with the X Japan team. What is the most American thing I can bring them?
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FAST Graphs
FAST Graphs@FASTGraphs·
FREE STOCK ANALYSIS. Reply with what stock you want and I’ll reply with the chart and tell you if it’s currently under or over valued.
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Nino
Nino@OHennhoefer·
@OfficialLoganK guessing is baked into the pre-training objective and the post-training reward function amplifies it by discouraging uncertainty
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Logan Kilpatrick
Logan Kilpatrick@OfficialLoganK·
Why don’t LLM’s just tell you when you are asking a question / doing something that is out of distribution?
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Nino
Nino@OHennhoefer·
@Hedgeye The other 30% come from renting out compute to Anthropic
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Hedgeye
Hedgeye@Hedgeye·
Around 70% of SpaceX's business is Starlink.
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Nino
Nino@OHennhoefer·
@Polymarket last time they did that, they didn’t
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Polymarket
Polymarket@Polymarket·
JUST IN: China agrees to purchase at least $17,000,000,000.00 in U.S. agriculture annually.
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Nino
Nino@OHennhoefer·
@TFTC21 He had me at ‘step-change function’
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TFTC
TFTC@TFTC21·
Ken Griffin went home on a Friday "fairly depressed" after watching AI agents at Citadel do work that used to take teams of PhDs in finance months to complete. Done in days. His words: "These are not mid-tier white collar jobs. These are extraordinarily high skilled jobs being automated by agentic AI." This is the head of one of the most successful hedge funds in history saying the people he pays seven figures to analyze markets and structure deals are being replaced by software that works in hours instead of months. Not theoretically. In his own office. Right now. The Coatue deck we covered earlier this week called agents "the biggest unlock" in AI. Griffin just confirmed it from the buy side. The shift from copilots to agents is not a future event. It is already happening at the highest levels of finance.
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Nino
Nino@OHennhoefer·
@NotA_Bull Could equally likely be sell-the-news events. Mind that the last ERs were carried by investment gains (the mentioned ones) and that eg last core operating EPS was ‘only’ in-line/slight miss.
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Evan | Investments
Evan | Investments@NotA_Bull·
I don’t understand why people are trimming $GOOGL. They own 14% of Anthropic, 7% of SpaceX, and 100% of Waymo and you want to sell before the IPOs? Why?
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Shaz
Shaz@shazcodes·
my friend worked at a startup for 2 years at below market rate for equity. company just got acquired. Founders are millionaires. his shares got diluted to $3400. He could have made more at mcdonald's.
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Nino
Nino@OHennhoefer·
@kimmonismus *three highly skilled researchers. the model was a force multiplier but not an autonomous replacement. important detail imo.
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Chubby♨️
Chubby♨️@kimmonismus·
Three researchers used Anthropic's Mythos to build a working macOS kernel exploit that bypasses Apple's M5 Memory Integrity Enforcement, a security system Apple spent five years and billions of dollars building. Bug found April 25. Working exploit May 1. Walked into Apple Park to deliver the report in person. MIE was the flagship security feature of the M5 and A19, designed to kill the entire memory corruption bug class. According to Apple's own research, it disrupted every known public exploit chain against modern iOS. Calif didn't break MIE. They walked around it. Data-only attack, no pointer manipulation, standard syscalls from an unprivileged user to root. The 55-page technical report drops after Apple patches. This is the story of the year in cybersecurity.
International Cyber Digest@IntCyberDigest

Video of exploit in action. Source: blog.calif.io/p/first-public…

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Barchart
Barchart@Barchart·
Nvidia $NVDA now worth more than India 🇮🇳🤯👀
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Nino
Nino@OHennhoefer·
@BoringBiz_ Probably the one with the longer track record of market validation and proven business durability.
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Boring_Business
Boring_Business@BoringBiz_·
If Anthropic has a trillion dollar valuation while Google has a $4.5 trillion valuation, there are only two conclusions to be drawn Either Anthropic is incredibly overpriced or Google is incredibly underpriced. The trick is to figure out which one is right
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IncomeSharks
IncomeSharks@IncomeSharks·
While everyone was busy chasing $NVDA they ignored $SNDK at the lows. While everyone was busy chasing Bitcoin they missed $HOOD at the lows. While everyone was chasing $GOLD they missed Semis. And while everyone is chasing Semis and Memory they are missing something else.
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