Nino
570 posts

Nino
@OHennhoefer
uncertainty & calibration in ai/ml/statistics
Germany / 🇪🇺 Katılım Ağustos 2021
7.5K Takip Edilen604 Takipçiler
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Germany is the epicentre of the China Shock 2.0 reverberating in global markets
In a new paper, @Brad_Setser and I show the shock is a key driver of Germany’s economic malaise. And it's accelerating
Berlin needs to stop admiring the problem, and join efforts to fight back
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A MUST-read interview with a Siemens employee explaining just how high demand is for energy equipment right now because of AI:
1. The whole situation is shocking even for people who have been in the business for 40 years. They are getting orders that are double the size of what their entire factory can produce in a year.
2. Demand is so high in the last 5-8 months that they don't need to convince or send any analysis (such as CO2 emissions, etc.) to clients because they just want the equipment, because there's so much backlog that they just want to catch the order.
3. Decisions are being made very quickly by clients; the backlog for some of the energy equipment companies is 5-6 years. For transformers, the situation is even more difficult.
4. He mentions that right now, data center builders do not care about sustainability; they just want power at any expense, reliable power. They say they will think about sustainability later.
5. The orders have gone from previous 20-30 MW orders to now 200-500 MW units. Customers have previously wanted to get equipment from different OEMs, but now they prefer an integrated standardized solution.
6. An interesting dynamic is that even though the data center requires 100 MW, the builders are buying N+1 units of gas turbines (so more than just for 100 MW) as backups, as well as having more energy capacity, as they believe they will continue to grow that data center.
7. He does believe there is some double booking going on on transformers and switchgears because of extra-long lead times.
8. Everyone is trying to reduce PUE, and water use effectiveness, but even after improving, they just use the same power to run more compute.
9. The problem is also liquid cooling, as it is expensive, and water availability in many regions is a problem.
10. Margins on equipment in the sector have gone from 4-6%, where they were 2-3 years ago, to 20-23% and in some cases even 40%. The data center builders know the margins are high, but they are fine with it because they just want to get it.
found on @AlphaSenseInc




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Holding $ASML and $TSM will outperform the vast majority of the "bottlenecks" that are identified on a daily basis.
Companies like $AAOI, $SNDK and $MU can do well, but a large portion of these type of companies is due to fall off sometime.
Looking 5-10 years ahead, $ASML and $TSM, together with $NVDA will be the true center of the AI revolution.
And cherry on top, they already make a lot of money.
Its not just a growth story.
Agree?
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@OfficialLoganK guessing is baked into the pre-training objective and the post-training reward function amplifies it by discouraging uncertainty
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Ken Griffin went home on a Friday "fairly depressed" after watching AI agents at Citadel do work that used to take teams of PhDs in finance months to complete. Done in days.
His words: "These are not mid-tier white collar jobs. These are extraordinarily high skilled jobs being automated by agentic AI."
This is the head of one of the most successful hedge funds in history saying the people he pays seven figures to analyze markets and structure deals are being replaced by software that works in hours instead of months. Not theoretically. In his own office. Right now.
The Coatue deck we covered earlier this week called agents "the biggest unlock" in AI. Griffin just confirmed it from the buy side. The shift from copilots to agents is not a future event. It is already happening at the highest levels of finance.
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@NotA_Bull Could equally likely be sell-the-news events. Mind that the last ERs were carried by investment gains (the mentioned ones) and that eg last core operating EPS was ‘only’ in-line/slight miss.
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@kimmonismus *three highly skilled researchers. the model was a force multiplier but not an autonomous replacement. important detail imo.
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Three researchers used Anthropic's Mythos to build a working macOS kernel exploit that bypasses Apple's M5 Memory Integrity Enforcement, a security system Apple spent five years and billions of dollars building.
Bug found April 25. Working exploit May 1. Walked into Apple Park to deliver the report in person.
MIE was the flagship security feature of the M5 and A19, designed to kill the entire memory corruption bug class. According to Apple's own research, it disrupted every known public exploit chain against modern iOS.
Calif didn't break MIE. They walked around it. Data-only attack, no pointer manipulation, standard syscalls from an unprivileged user to root.
The 55-page technical report drops after Apple patches.
This is the story of the year in cybersecurity.
International Cyber Digest@IntCyberDigest
Video of exploit in action. Source: blog.calif.io/p/first-public…
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Listen live on X: x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
Also streaming on
Youtube: youtube.com/live/u9FM9K11C…
Web: radio.thehype.news

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@BoringBiz_ Probably the one with the longer track record of market validation and proven business durability.
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