Shipping & Catering

#Panamax market strengthened through the week, with improving fronthaul demand supporting the Atl despite growing Cont tonnage. Pac gained on steady Australia and Indonesia cargo flow, while tightening April supply and rising bids lifted sentiment. #reported dely Higashi-Harima via NoPac redel China $19,000 for 75k dwt

Rhino confirmed an upcoming appraisal (soon) of its Capricornus discovery in PEL 85, Namibia 🇳🇦 Namibia's oil discoveries include associated gas, w/ Capricornus an exception given its 'limited' associated gas although I believe Mopane looks to have greater scale potential #OOTT Deepwater discoveries don't always live up to initial excitement, so the Capricornus appraisal well is a key test for both Rhino and Azule (a BP/Eni JV). The April 2025 Capricornus discovery encountered 38 meters of net pay with 'good petrophysical properties'

Petrolera REPSOL retomará operaciones de Petroquiriquiri, formalizó un acuerdo con la encargada de Donald Trump en Venezuela, la empresa conjunta está integrada por la petrolera "Vene-Americana PDUSA" (60%) y Repsol (40%). (Financial Times) #oilandgas #oil #crude

⏳ Namibia: Venus FID targeted for July 2026 Upstream reporting from the Namibia International Energy Conference highlights a clear timeline emerging for the Venus development. Namibia’s Petroleum Commissioner indicated the project will move into development “with FID by July 2026”, while TotalEnergies reiterated a mid-2026 target and confirmed it is “putting everything in place” to support a July decision. 📈 An important signal for the Orange Basin, as the project moves closer to what would be Namibia’s first offshore oil development. 🔗Read the full article here: upstreamonline.com/field-developm… #MER #OilAndGas #Namibia #OrangeBasin

@contang_o Maybe for once $DNOrd will benefit, they did some TC out on the MRs at “lower” levels vs now but should easily made money on the extensions since Q1 and dry was strong. Hope the FFAs didn’t mess up their results (again) their options/extensions are all well in the money.

@SpartaFreight @SpartaCommo Appreciate this post!! Thanks Michael

De-escalation and the freight trade: Positioning ahead of the market and the competition If the current trajectory of Iran talks, ceasefires, and diplomatic engagement continues towards a deal / sustained strait transits, the freight market is likely to move through three distinct phases. Each carries a different risk profile, and the traders and charterers who benefit most will be those who understand the likely sequencing now. The first and most immediate effect will be a broad reduction in the risk premium embedded across Middle East routes, but that initial selloff is not the main trade. It's the setup for larger longer-term positions. Nowhere is this more true than in AG TD3c paper. If VLCCs return to regular Strait of Hormuz transit, the market will almost certainly overreact to the downside as risk premium evaporates. A confirmed deal and proven strait transit logistics would reprice M01 paper sharply lower. What the market will be slower to price is the consequence of where the fleet actually is. Many VLCCs have spent the past month employed in the Atlantic basin, drawn there precisely because of the lack of AG opportunity. As those vessels slowly, cautiously, decide to reposition back to the AG, available spot tonnage in the AG will be systemically short relative to cargo demand and rates will need to reprice higher to attract them back. The paper crash comes first, then the lack of vessel supply moves rates higher. Buying TD3c M01 and 2H26 paper into that weakness looks like the trade, with the principal timing risk being the pace of fleet repositioning and crude production restart. The structural case beyond that repositioning phase is still strong for the VLCC market. A deal that brings Iran back to the international fleet, combined with Venezuela's continued re-engagement with conventional shipping, would meaningfully increase tonne-mile demand. Russia would remain the one major producer still reliant on the shadow fleet, but with international enforcement of sanctions becoming increasingly physical rather than declaratory, the effective supply of shadow tonnage is slowly contracting. More legitimate cargo demand and less shadow fleet employment points to a tighter VLCC market across 2H26. The AG LR2 market and TC5 paper market will follow a similar script, with one additional variable. CPP vessels have repositioned en masse away from the Arabian Gulf, and de-escalation will trigger the same sequence; initial rate weakness, an out-of-position fleet, and a vessel supply squeeze that drives spot rates higher. The TC5 paper and LR2 tanker trade mirrors the TD3c one in structure and the 2H26 strength case holds equally for LRs. The additional variable is the current Aframax market. A meaningful number of Aframaxes dirtied up over the past six weeks, drawn by stronger DPP rates and longer haul voyages, which has reduced the effective LR2 fleet size and will contribute to strength in clean rates once AG product exports return. As dirty Aframax earnings soften, those vessels clean back up and re-enter the CPP market, eventually capping LR rates, but the window between initial clean-up and that normalization is likely to be several months. In that window, the spread between TD25 and TC5 paper could widen dramatically as the market prices renewed demand for LRs. The USGC won't be immune in this scenario. The Gulf has traded at a structural premium as it became the default source of supply for global crude and products, with ballasters increasingly looking there for employment and available vessel supply rising steadily. In the coming weeks, the US crude and product export programme is likely to tighten as domestic balances adjust to recent sustained export flows. The result is more ships arriving and fewer cargoes to absorb them. The USGC voyage premium will erode, and spot TD25 and TC14 paper will weaken as the forward curve normalizes lower. This trade plays out over time, but the direction becomes clearer the closer the strait of Hormuz gets to sustained transit flows.

Will not renew Russian oil waiver - @SecScottBessent #oott

Some points on #Tankers, #VLCC in special. 1: ~10% of VLCC fleet is trapped inside #Hormuz… but the taximeter doesn’t stop at ‘red light’. 2: another 10-15% of the VLCC fleet are either waiting to load in the Red Sea/or sitting east of 58°E for Hormuz to open. 3: with rates in the Atl. basin for nearly all asset classes well north of $100k per day, the rest of the market is tight – utilization remains is high – and no commercial owners sit vessels for free. $FRO #OOTT

an inbound blockade buster overnight: falsely flagged (Aruba) VLCC Alicia (IMO 9281695) enters the Strait by hugging Iran's territorial waters. sanctioned by US for Iranian links back in March, 2025, this vessel is in ballast, and definitely one of Iran's own. this vessel is stateless and under UNCLOS can be boarded and interdicted

Venezuela #oil #tankers Terminal Jose - CARIBBEAN VOYAGER en ruta a U.S, carga: ~600 K🛢️ - NISSOS SIFNOS arribando - SEAWAYS COLORADO rumbo a Francia, carga: ~1M🛢️ → PDUSA facturando a todo vapor, el régimen afianzado en el poder y el ciudadano anhelando un cambio total. 🤔

Well well, hardening from OFAC They are the constraint on 'neutral' tonnage engaging with the Iranian toll scheme and commercial vessel movement.

@lasse108 $ENH.OL

What’s your best investment idea currently? Don’t say $BAK

If you want to know when it’s time to get bearish oil, just watch refining margins. In COVID, some of the signals were: First, these signals peaked. Floating storage Tanker rates Contango After, refining margins, which were negative in early May started to rebound. Refining margins only rebounded because product storage started to drain. Refineries at the time were in a precarious place. OPEC+ had just reduced production by 10 million b/d. Mandatory lockdowns destroyed oil demand, so refining margins had to go up in order for crude oil to rally. When it finally did, that was when crude started to rally with a bit more leg. This time around, a similar playbook will happen but in reverse. Refining margins will be a key indicator for when the global economy cannot handle higher prices any longer. We are already seeing some of that in Southeast Asia, but it’s not widespread yet. Once you hear about how refineries are forced to cut throughput and can no longer afford crude, that will be the signal to sell your crude oil longs.

This was the one supposed to load today in Iraq and lead the way to freedom. Sinokor managed to squeeze the "Mombasa B" VLCC during the weekend, should load tomorrow Basrah. Hope fading

SEIZED IRAN-LINKED SHIPS WILL BE TAKEN TO HOLDING AREA IN ARABIAN SEA OR INDIAN OCEAN- WSJ

UKMTO Daily summary 13 Apr-14 Apr 26 Click here to view UKMTO Products⤵️ ukmto.org/ukmto-products #MaritimeSecurity #MarSec

Bloomberg) -- The North Sea market was much quieter on Monday with only four bids in Platts window. Prices were little changed. Trafigura, Mercuria and Total bid WTI Midland; Mercuria also sought Ekofisk. PLATTS: WTI Midland, CIF:Trafigura bid May 10-17 at Dated +$21.95/bbl

$SNI scrapping - old out, new in.

Positiv vinstvarning från Klaveness $KCC idag! Raterna för Q1 är något högre än estimerat i tidigare tweet. Det ser mycket bra inför Q2. Dock meddelar bolaget att ett fartyg sitter fast i Persiska viken så det ska man nog justera för. combinationcarriers.com/insights-and-n…