Droopy the Great 🧭

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Droopy the Great 🧭

Droopy the Great 🧭

@Oracle_Casper

“UP IS DOWN”? Well that's just maddeningly unhelpful. Why are these things never clear? 🔁

Katılım Aralık 2020
478 Takip Edilen74 Takipçiler
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Droopy the Great 🧭
Droopy the Great 🧭@Oracle_Casper·
@Namzes_G @newzage Made this shortly b4 Trump shooting. When we bounced hard off of 49k & got rejected hard at 65k, really looked like we do covid PA repeat. Now its moving very fast, makes me think goes much higher than 100k tradingview.com/x/wnHo5PBN/
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Droopy the Great 🧭
Droopy the Great 🧭@Oracle_Casper·
@KAProductions One curve ball would be a poke above that ma before the leg down(last one of the bear). Either way, i think we at least retest low to mid 60's. But more likely, new low.
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Keith Alan
Keith Alan@KAProductions·
@Oracle_Casper If you're referring to the 200-Day SMA, you are correct in the fact that real recoveries are characterized by strong moves, however we have several instances where first attempts that grind up and test support multiple times ended up being fake outs.
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CryptoCondom
CryptoCondom@crypto_condom·
Im still of the same opinion as last week: $BTC fundamentals remain bearish in the LTF. 1. CB premium continues to be deeply negative 2. ETF outflow was enormous in the last 7 days ($1.5Billion) as risk assets took a hit from rising bond yields + 13F filings that showed funds like Harvard Endowment & others cut $BTC ETF positions 3. Saylor has elected to use cash to do buybacks vs LTF BTC buys. 4. $STRC is ex divided as of Friday (equity price is sub $100) meaning they cant buy more $BTC 5. @SpaceX IPO in 3 weeks will act as a liquidity vacuum for risk assets, esp crypto 6. $BTC closed the weekly below $78k while NQ is starting to show weakness going into a low liquidity summer which is traditionally a poor time for risk 7. Dollar strength $DXY continues to climb with yields 8. All the TA reasons my friend @Tom__Capital notes as well : x.com/tom__capital/s…
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CryptoCondom@crypto_condom

5 reasons crypto doesnt look great to me: 👉Unusual & large bearish LTF put positions hit the tape today for both $ETH and bitcoin:native with exp 5/29/26 for $500m ($135m notional for $ETH + $373m notional for bitcoin:native 👉$BTC ETF outflow has been significant for a week now since 5/6/26. Outflow today alone was $345m negating all STRC pre-dividend buying (which was low too btw) 👉$STRC raise has been anemic compared to prior months....and we are approaching ex dividend again where volumes/buying will be in decline after. (aka: Investors buy STRC before the 15th ex-dividend date → volumes spike → Strategy issues more shares → buys more BTC) 👉Coinbase premium has been negative since 4/27/26 👉We're entering a period of structural weakness in equities starting next week thru end of summer

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Material Indicators
Material Indicators@MI_Algos·
Evidence points to @saylor being the entity behind yesterday's massive bitcoin:native long at resistance. If he was trying to trigger a breakout - he failed. FireCharts binned CVD shows whales have been distributing in the range...again.
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Droopy the Great 🧭
Droopy the Great 🧭@Oracle_Casper·
@KAProductions Prolly not many of us left. Poking 200d ma. New aths TradFi, shrugging off all bad news just like a bull mkt. I think it's a fakeout tho.. if so, the resumption of bear will prolly be violent. Nearly everyone's on one side of the boat
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Φ@Intuit_Trading·
@SatomotoC Maybe in 10 years but it's hard to tell, and unless they somehow get their debt under control it would probably be best to not be holding dollars (or any fiat currency) for too long
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Droopy the Great 🧭
Droopy the Great 🧭@Oracle_Casper·
@Intuit_Trading Have you looked into when the next secular bear will be(if there ever will be.. in a fiscal dominance regime)?
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Φ@Intuit_Trading·
@SatomotoC Inflation is bullish for crypto. When we had the last wave of inflation in 2020-2022 was when crypto was doing the best. This next wave could be even bigger. Whatever happens with the war is unpredictable in the short-term, but the oil shock has damaged supply chains for years
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Namzes Cycles
Namzes Cycles@Namzes_G·
$SPX upd: -Big picture remains unchanged: I am expecting a bear market with a buyable 3.5Y cycle low around Q3 -See below Dec 2024 projection with updated price -20W cycle low came on time (1 day after ideal date of Mar 27 in pinned post) -I didn’t expect new ATH: I thought we’d reject around golden pocket retracement. Between CTA mechanical bid and Trump playing the market like violin we have the blow off top I was expecting in Feb, market always finds a way to laugh at you -The new 40d cycle is 1/2 way through and next week should tell us whether this rally has more upside or terminates here -For my base bear case I had Apr 17 as turn date, but so far no signs of a slowdown in buying yet. Opex often provides a pivot in the cycle - or a few days after it. -Based on Hurst method we still have potential several % more upside in $SPX which I’m not chasing as just like in Feb when I exited the market RR for a trader like me who likes holding positions for several months is not great and we have weekend headline risk. -Timing wise next 40d low is due ~May 7 which should give us more info on the structure (depth of a pullback and strength of a bounce into late May) which then sets up bigger decline into a higher degree summer low. -Leading indicators showing bigger decline is still ahead in a few weeks so staying cash heavy. -If you want more updates - like and retweet
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Namzes Cycles@Namzes_G

I’ve been waiting last few months for signs that 3.5 year cycle has topped. We’ve been buyers of dips as models were bullish. It has changed in Feb when I posted that I went mostly cash and now all models I track are now on a weekly sell signal / bear regime. -The last time we had a similar set up was Dec 2021 and we went defensive before the bear market which positioned us well to be buyers of stocks at bargain prices later in 2022. Now current 3.5Y cycle is peaking/rolling over - time to pay attention. -I don’t like playing Monday morning quarterback so I try to give you my actionable primary roadmap a few months out and adjust along the way based on cycles, models, technicals etc. Saying something was obvious after the fact doesn’t help anyone. -Below is my experimental $SPX composite leading indicator which I’ve been working on for several years combining various cross-asset signals. Not meant to perfectly time every micro move but can be used as a confluence for larger trend changes -In Dec ‘25 I saw upside headfake move (UTAD in Wyckoff terms) in Q1 2026 and then rollover; now with more data coming in it’s suggesting a bigger decline in Mar-Apr - in line cycles/ models / TA - $SPX is still only -3.4% below ATH so real correction hasn’t even started. When talking heads on CNBC start panicking it will be too late. Not trying to fear monger, just calling it what models are showing. Capital preservation is key. -I take time out of my weekend to post this to open people’s eyes to a potential significant downside in the market and consider contingency plans. If you find it helpful and want to get more updates - please retweet.

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Maartunn
Maartunn@JA_Maartun·
Third Test at Monthly Resistance on Oil 😭 Is technical analysis on oil meaningless? Not quite I would say.
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Keith Alan
Keith Alan@KAProductions·
Tough day for markets. $BTC down 4% and validates the bear flag. Meanwhile a Death Cross between the 20-Day and 200-Day SMA validates a bear market for the @Nasdaq Composite Index. @DowJones and $SPX are on a trajectory to do the same in the coming days. That explains why EL TACO keeps telling the world that the U.S. doesn't plan to attack over the next 10-days, but it seems like the market is getting tired of tacos. He needs to find an exit to this war before we're looking at $5/gallon gasoline and the impact of choking off supply chains in the Strait of Hormuz creates global problems that go far beyond the price of oil.
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Namzes Cycles
Namzes Cycles@Namzes_G·
7000 $SPX was promised to me 3 years ago 😂 On Jan 28, 2026, 7002 reached intraday and rejected hard so far. If you don’t take profits and ride it back down, what’s the point of investing/trading? Try to capture 80-90% of gains and sidestep 80% of big losses. It’s a marathon.
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Namzes Cycles@Namzes_G

@RabadearWin @dampedspring 6500

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Decode
Decode@decodejar·
The extent of my technical analysis on OIL. This chart will break our dreams if it doesn't get resolved quickly.
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Palobar
Palobar@panpalobar·
When you have to take care of your elderly mother who needs your full support, it is not easy to respond to all the wonderful messages and questions (Bitcoin, silver, wheat, and copper). I have to finalise my update on gold and silver. Τhank you for your patience.
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Droopy the Great 🧭
Droopy the Great 🧭@Oracle_Casper·
@TradersMastery I recall you saying last year US wants a war w/ Iran.. any reading into what the true agenda is? This oil move doesnt look transitory.. looks like a trend
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Palobar
Palobar@panpalobar·
It was an amazing day. One moment you think you are King Kong, and a few minutes later, you are instantly humbled by the market. After you have done the hard work, you learn to trust your intuition. The key is that you should never view each trade as a matter of life and death, but as a series of trades. That way, a loss is viewed as an opportunity cost rather than an outcome that identifies you.
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Palobar
Palobar@panpalobar·
#gold #silver #CrudeOil #StopLoss In 2008, I started sharing my thoughts on the markets with a few colleagues. At first, it was a brief email with a chart. A few months later, that communication became a pdf report that I shared with a small group of friends. The image below is an excerpt from my March 2020 market update. One of the recipients was a chief investment officer in one of the largest family offices in Greece. He asked my view on crude oil. At that time, oil was trading in the low $40s (during the Covid panic). I told him that I was expecting a major low in mid-April. I had a buy order at $16 with a stop loss at $13.6. On April 20, oil hit my target. It had a nice intraday bounce from that level, but very soon it turned down and fell like a stone. A few minutes later, my stop-loss was triggered. I took a loss. I was upset. How could I be wrong? The market had a surprise for me. Oil crashed down to -$40! That day was the absolute low for oil. I was right, but I took a loss. Everything in that trade was almost perfect. I waited patiently for the price to drop to my target ($16). Timing-wise, the entry was surgically precise. Nevertheless, I took a loss. My decision to keep my stop loss that day saved my account. A few days earlier, I took a long trade in gold based on my analysis (see linked tweet). It was the absolute low. There is always an element of luck (good and bad) in every trading decision. More importantly, we don't have all the information. Despite the loss (Oil), those two trades helped me build tremendous confidence, and at the same time, learn that the market can instantly humble you. Lessons 1. Invest in yourself 2. Acquire knowledge 3. Assume responsibility for your account and your trading decisions. 4. Spend time to understand/observe your behavioral patterns (what triggers you) 5. Cut your losses short 6. Let your winner run 7. Become independent thinkers 8. Stop following accounts that always strive to be 'right' and never admit their mistakes. 9. Follow accounts that adapt quickly to changing market conditions. 🙏
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Keith Alan
Keith Alan@KAProductions·
@Cointelegraph EL TACO strikes again. Notice how the market moves just before he posts.
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Cointelegraph
Cointelegraph@Cointelegraph·
🚨 BREAKING: Trump orders 5-day pause on strikes against Iran after “productive” talks. $269M of shorts rekt in 60 mins
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Keşfet

@KAProductions @Trader_XO @crypto_condom @SpaceX @Tom__Capital @MI_Algos @saylor @Intuit_Trading