Comrade Orca

@QuanTran99551 any comment on expected multiple and valuation thereof for 2026?

MSR’s largest customers are Japan and South Korea, which contribute the most to Msr's total revenue. #tungsten #msr #masan

@KobeissiLetter the silence is the information

12 hours ago, President Trump said he would have "some information by end of day." Yet, Saturday has officially ended without any deal announcement and complete silence from both Iran and the US. Meanwhile, the anticipated peace talks between the US and Iran on Sunday were never scheduled and the Strait of Hormuz is closed again. In 18 hours, US stock market and oil futures will reopen. We expect an eventful Sunday ahead.

@SStapczynski are these the two heading into the Gulf you posted previously?

Three LNG tankers loaded with fuel from Qatar appear to be heading toward Hormuz 🚢 ⚠️ If they transit the strait (and that’s a big *if*), then this would be the first LNG shipments exported from the Persian Gulf since the war began bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@Alltypeoffishes @JamalKhan519997 liquefaction fee is about right for Q1 CP1: now ~2.0 USD per MMBTU on long-term SPA cargoes since we are now post-COD Plaquemines: ~4.0 USD on spot cargoes but had been contracted at previously lower price environment Q2 - Q3 is where effect of widening spread shows

@JamalKhan519997 Liquefaction fee lower than expectation though

The Base case for Venture Global $VG market is ignoring: At Q1 2026 130 cargoes achieved → ~520/year Each ~3.5 Bcf → ~1.8 Tcf total volume Blended #LNG pricing (legacy + spot): ~$38M–$42M per cargo That puts revenue at: 520 × ~$40M = ~$20.8B 🔥

@Clint44188955 @jackprandelli as of early Mar >40% possible cargoes from Plaquemines was not yet contracted / has spot exposure

@jackprandelli Now tell every1 that spot cargoes are being replaced by commissioned ones that basically make no money. You can fact check it with Poten VG spas = trash VG will make money by spot cargoes.The current arbitrage will be nice.Long term it’s the margin on these cargoes that matter

US LNG just posted numbers that should make every energy investor pay attention. Venture Global (Q1 2026) ⚡ 480 TBtu sold 2x yoy 🚢 130 cargoes exported 💰 $3.82/MMBtu fixed fees 📈 50% gross margins 💵 $13.8B revenue last 12 months the structural tailwind behind every number: 🇶🇦 Qatar 17% LNG capacity offline. 3-5 years to repair. 🇪🇺 Europe scrambling for long-term contracts. 🌏 Asia competing for every available cargo. 🚢 Hormuz still a risk to flows. Every lost Qatari cargo is a US contract waiting to happen. Venture Global is locking in fixed fees. Long-term contracts. Flexible delivery. Volatility is their best salesman. This is what a supercycle looks like when you're on the right side of it. I've been covering the best LNG and energy companies positioned for exactly this moment. Read my latest article (names, numbers, and strategy inside)🔗 Link 👇 open.substack.com/pub/themerchan…

@VGDeepDive my mistake 339 was only for Plaquemines. total is indeed 480

$VG Q1 average liquefaction fee of $3.82 per MMBtu. Hmm....

@MikeFritzell real estate in Vn isnt looked at as a yield instrument but rather as a store of value, hence the situation.

These numbers are absolutely insane. Does not seem sustainable

@ngahpham do you mean this is to redirect crude from Viet Russia JV for domestic consumption rather than export?

I heard Vietnam is considering stopping crude oil exports in order to meet domestic demands. Maybe this is part of Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s agenda in Russia as it is a major partner in Vietnam’s oil projects.

@wisdomandboats im new to shipping and I cant wrap my head around Atlantic basin oversupply narrative. there are probably more tankers there than usual but wouldnt there be more demand too now that AG - Asia supply is muted?

This is the unfortunate reality of a prolonged Strait closure. Yes, high bunker costs from higher oil prices could raise the floor of rates in theory, but this wasn’t the exact case in 2022 where VLCCs could barely make breakeven despite oil prices over 100 from February to August of 2022 Vessel like Suezmaxes and Aframaxes were better off in the time period due to shifting trade routes but the demand loss for VLCCs overpowered the potential floor of rates from high bunker prices. A similar dynamic could be seen here, but just across the board on all tankers. There’s nearly 12-15 million barrels of oil & oil products exports withheld , and that figure can maybe be pushed to 10 million by theoretical maximum pipeline capacity (not considering terminal export capacity). The demand loss is still massive. Certain areas will experience the demand collapse differently, first Asia will feel it the hardest, then Europe and lastly the Americas (specifically the USG). This is mostly due to continual exports from counties with positive crude balance, but also due to location of these loading areas, which impact the time it will take for vessel to ballast over. The lack of exports from the AG eliminating transport demand isn’t the actual lever that depresses rates. It’s the lack of demand there that forces owner to reposition vessels in other loading areas, creating an oversupply of tonnage. It takes time to ballast these vessels to different loading zones and many of them are still on current voyages and/or already fixed for their next voyage, hence the delay of this negative impact on loading zones. Can’t pinpoint exactly how far rates could fall and i’m not going to try because that’s incredibly difficult to do. If the Strait is still sealed shut by April, we’re likely going to see rates start to downturn aggressively by then as vessel supply begins to accumulate in many loading regions. #Tankers #oott

@rich_toad guide thx

Do you ever wonder why no hedge fund is open to hiring you as an intern despite you offer to work for free?

1) to celebrate hitting 10k followers, I'd first like to thank my mystic @calvinfroedge, and my quant @toiletkingcap 2) A lifetime sub to Demystifying Life will be given to a random person who comments and reposts this. 3) I made this article free (it was paid) to show how my newsletter performed. I've given many updates since then & told my stack that I opened a very large position in oil a few days ago. Also called $MUR at $30 recently. open.substack.com/pub/gavinmccra… 4) I am not a financial advisor, and my substack isn't about finance. It's the log of a polymaths thoughts, from fitness, health, to geopolitics, and my thinking process about how I hit such ludicrous multibaggers in commodities, it's all in here.

@GavMcCracken @calvinfroedge @toiletkingcap congrats!

@calvinfroedge x.com/sstapczynski/s…

The Qataris loading two LNG cargoes means one of two things: Either they've negotiated with the Iranians to let these ships pass, or they're afraid that the storage facility itself is about to be attacked and think they have better chances with a moving ship

$VAL The Valaris Thesis is out! If you have signed up for the distribution list it is in your inbox. If you havent signed up and want access to this and my past work, please comment, like, or share and I will reach out to you and collect your email. Enjoy! - Arcelor Mittal and Interfor are next up. $VAL $MT $IFP

@100xCompounding could I pls have a copy

@milky_selena to retire is to expire

@Utd_Xtra_ @CFCMod_ hello?

@CFCMod_ No he won’t

@bafikk @DavaiLama @ESL @ESLDota2 guy made an insensitive remark and you act like he murderred someone. You are the evil one here.

You are fuckinng animal @DavaiLama . Piece of shit human being. Look what this guy is typing in @ESL @ESLDota2 Open Qualifier, playing against team from Ukraine.

@supersane7 @lporiginalg 😂

@15Vagic @FinanceLancelot whats the name of the documentary?

@FinanceLancelot I've seen this one... Amazing doumentary

"All Wars Are Banker Wars"