PaybackDiver Visuals
2K posts

PaybackDiver Visuals
@Oscargv46
Wall Street gives a price target. give a probability distribution. 10k Monte Carlo runs. Dual-track calibration. SOTP ±2σ. 10yr FCF payback. We buy cash machine
New York, USA Katılım Mart 2026
48 Takip Edilen43 Takipçiler
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@jesse_whit_wire 100%. "Priced for perfection" is just the street's way of saying "negative margin of safety." Our 10k simulations literally scream this. Great company, but the actuarial math demands a cushion. We wait.
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@ot_tyler Respect the transparency. But we are playing entirely different games. Trading algorithms is betting on the casino; our 10-year FCF payback framework is owning the house. $TSLA at 180x proves markets stay irrational. We don't predict algos; we measure gravity.
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@Oscargv46 $TSLA trades at 180x earnings.
Price moves algorithmically. I'm reading the charts. While fundamentals are important, I don't look at them.
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@amin_business A true 'shareholder mindset' compares everything to the risk-free rate. $LLY’s projected 5-Yr FCF yield (3.68%) lags the 4.39% treasury.
Incredible moat (49% ROIC), but priced for absolute perfection. Model median value: $749. Rating: Strict Observation. 🔬 (NFA)

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@khaldah40544231 @StockMKTNewz A true 'shareholder mindset' compares everything to the risk-free rate. $LLY’s projected 5-Yr FCF yield (3.68%) lags the 4.39% treasury.
Incredible moat (49% ROIC), but priced for absolute perfection. Model median value: $749. Rating: Strict Observation. 🔬 (NFA)

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@StockMKTNewz Trust in Eli Lilly is like trusting a Chinese engine… it might run fine for a while, but you’re always wondering when it’s going to start making weird noises
$nvo
$lly
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@BiotechInvqgt0 A true 'shareholder mindset' compares everything to the risk-free rate. $LLY’s projected 5-Yr FCF yield (3.68%) lags the 4.39% treasury.
Incredible moat (49% ROIC), but priced for absolute perfection. Model median value: $749. Rating: Strict Observation. 🔬 (NFA)

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@investseekers A true 'shareholder mindset' compares everything to the risk-free rate. $LLY’s projected 5-Yr FCF yield (3.68%) lags the 4.39% treasury.
Incredible moat (49% ROIC), but priced for absolute perfection. Model median value: $749. Rating: Strict Observation. 🔬 (NFA)

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$NVO and $LLY gain access to a major new Medicare market from July 2026, but long term growth remains uncertain due to reimbursement risk.
A 1.5 year pilot could open access to 15M+ patients, but insurer participation is key and currently limited, with major players pushing back on the model.
The core issue is economics. Costs are front loaded, while health savings typically appear after 2 to 3 years, creating misalignment for insurers.
Lower pricing improves access, but past estimates showed limited net savings, and it remains unclear if the new pricing structure changes that.
Without risk sharing or structural changes, insurers may avoid broad adoption, putting the long term opportunity at risk despite strong demand.
Link to article (in Danish): borsen.dk/nyheder/virkso…
#stocks #Investing
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@pdicarlotrader A true 'shareholder mindset' compares everything to the risk-free rate. $LLY’s projected 5-Yr FCF yield (3.68%) lags the 4.39% treasury.
Incredible moat (49% ROIC), but priced for absolute perfection. Model median value: $749. Rating: Strict Observation. 🔬 (NFA)

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$LLY Monthly BX Closed Red 🔴
Will remove my position tomorrow for a small -5% loss
Losing sucks but moving on quickly is the name of the game
Structure is still holding, so we could bounce here but I will NOT be here to see it

Peter DiCarlo@pdicarlotrader
$LLY is ticking every box on my long checklist. I’ve got a working price target of $1100 over the next 90 days. In this video I walk through the current setup, how I built that target, and exactly how I’m trading this move step by step.
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@thealphaledger A true 'shareholder mindset' compares everything to the risk-free rate. $LLY’s projected 5-Yr FCF yield (3.68%) lags the 4.39% treasury.
Incredible moat (49% ROIC), but priced for absolute perfection. Model median value: $749. Rating: Strict Observation. 🔬 (NFA)

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$LLY looks like it may want to retest the highs. 💪
Follow: @thealphaledger

Into Absurdity@SubtleInduction
I'm interested to see what $LLY does here. It failed at the overhead avwap for now which is normal.
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@itsTarH Is $LLY overvalued? Our 10k-iteration model says yes.
At $963, the price sits above 80% of all simulated valuation outcomes. With less than a 20% probability that the current price is "cheap," the math demands patience. Radar zone: $650-$750. 📊 (Ed purposes only, NFA)

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@tldrmarket Is $LLY overvalued? Our 10k-iteration model says yes.
At $963, the price sits above 80% of all simulated valuation outcomes. With less than a 20% probability that the current price is "cheap," the math demands patience. Radar zone: $650-$750. 📊 (Ed purposes only, NFA)

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@mbrushstocks @pawcio2009 @Varro_Analytics @BiotechObserver @biotech_hunter Is $LLY overvalued? Our 10k-iteration model says yes.
At $963, the price sits above 80% of all simulated valuation outcomes. With less than a 20% probability that the current price is "cheap," the math demands patience. Radar zone: $650-$750. 📊 (Ed purposes only, NFA)

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Does the world need another GLP-1? Yes! If it works better. I just introduced a company with candidates in my stock letter. Threat to $NOV $LLY. It ranks well in my biotech system we will see how well it does.
@pawcio2009 @Varro_Analytics @BiotechObserver @biotech_hunter @matthewmillerai @JohnCendpts @ArmstrongDrew @Rajgillishere @JoeWaters_KW @Navaraaa @CaptainTight @chennak418 @adamfeuerstein @matthewherper @SamFazeli8 @BrianSkorney @bio_clouseau @BioStocks @cngarabedian @YaronWerber @bradloncar @BiotechCH @MartinShkreli $IBB $XBI
uponstocks.com
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@SizeInvestor Is $LLY overvalued? Our 10k-iteration model says yes.
At $963, the price sits above 80% of all simulated valuation outcomes. With less than a 20% probability that the current price is "cheap," the math demands patience. Radar zone: $650-$750. 📊 (Ed purposes only, NFA)

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@TickerFlow @NewsOnWallSt @whalewisdom Is $LLY overvalued? Our 10k-iteration model says yes.
At $963, the price sits above 80% of all simulated valuation outcomes. With less than a 20% probability that the current price is "cheap," the math demands patience. Radar zone: $650-$750. 📊 (Ed purposes only, NFA)

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$CRDL few notes from @NewsOnWallSt
1. @whalewisdom shows a big whale has taken a large position
2. Phase 3 enrollments seems very positive
3. Strong phase 2 catalyst ? 👀
Hidden biotech gem worth doing your homework on.
Anyone in $jazz $lly $mrna $unh $hum should do DD

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@gpupoorresearch Is $LLY overvalued? Our 10k-iteration model says yes.
At $963, the price sits above 80% of all simulated valuation outcomes. With less than a 20% probability that the current price is "cheap," the math demands patience. Radar zone: $650-$750. 📊 (Ed purposes only, NFA)

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@marketwirenews Is $LLY overvalued? Our 10k-iteration model says yes.
At $963, the price sits above 80% of all simulated valuation outcomes. With less than a 20% probability that the current price is "cheap," the math demands patience. Radar zone: $650-$750. 📊 (Ed purposes only, NFA)

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$LLY - Pfizer Stock Still Priced Like Its Dead Money
News & Disclaimer
ift.tt/SuAf8qJ
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@KrispyMalv24221 @eu_flaviiuu_ Is $LLY overvalued? Our 10k-iteration model says yes.
At $963, the price sits above 80% of all simulated valuation outcomes. With less than a 20% probability that the current price is "cheap," the math demands patience. Radar zone: $650-$750. 📊 (Ed purposes only, NFA)

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Got any of these in your portfolio?
$ABBV $LLY $BMY
👇
@eu_flaviiuu_ finds huge breakout stocks every day.
My portfolio blew up 3x all because of his spot-on market calls.
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@kemalister Is $LLY overvalued? Our 10k-iteration model says yes.
At $963, the price sits above 80% of all simulated valuation outcomes. With less than a 20% probability that the current price is "cheap," the math demands patience. Radar zone: $650-$750. 📊 (Ed purposes only, NFA)

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I wanted to invest partially to health and my candidate was $LLY but data proves that bullish trend is not smooth ride for it.
Eli Lilly and Company already had a huge run thanks to drugs like Mounjaro and Zepbound they produced . But expectations are sky high, stock already priced in near-perfect growth, investors' perception is "not bad, could be much more better" even after strong results.
Obesity medication demand is massive , but supply limits and high production costs deaccelerating short-term upside. Competition from Novo Nordisk and money flow into AI/tech stocks are also another factors.
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@miriam_mur69718 @HogHunterBaits Is $LLY overvalued? Our 10k-iteration model says yes.
At $963, the price sits above 80% of all simulated valuation outcomes. With less than a 20% probability that the current price is "cheap," the math demands patience. Radar zone: $650-$750. 📊 (Ed purposes only, NFA)

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Last week I bought the stocks he recommended and made a considerable amount of money.
@HogHunterBaits
👆
If you're still unsure which stocks to buy, I suggest you listen to his advice. His analysis and recommendations are completely free.
$LLY $NKE $HD
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@marvinrivas16 Is $LLY overvalued? Our 10k-iteration model says yes.
At $963, the price sits above 80% of all simulated valuation outcomes. With less than a 20% probability that the current price is "cheap," the math demands patience. Radar zone: $650-$750. 📊 (Ed purposes only, NFA)

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@ThomasW31663990 Is $LLY overvalued? Our 10k-iteration model says yes.
At $963, the price sits above 80% of all simulated valuation outcomes. With less than a 20% probability that the current price is "cheap," the math demands patience. Radar zone: $650-$750. 📊 (Ed purposes only, NFA)

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