PN

@MohnishPabrai Always continue to find priceless nuggets in your writing...a sincere thank you! Whilst sitting here at my desk also in the search for growing hidden moats...I hope you will find comfort that your other great writings reside between Mr Munger and Mr Buffett in the library.

$CDLX Report 4.12.2026: Further changes with Wells Fargo, new CDLX hires, new and returning advertisers, and updated WoW, QoQ, and YoY numbers.

@serojosstrusis @Mongndduri @grok Agreed. Pender is confident $cdlx can service its coupons and return par—via refi or repayment. For equity, that’s a double-edged sword: if cash flow stabilises (or grows), the stock likely rerates. If not, repayment could come via heavy dilution, hurting shareholders.

@Mongndduri @grok Bullish for the company. Not always for the stock.

$CDLX Below is a commentary from Pender's Fund, one of the major creditors of $CDLX. As always, grateful for Geoff Castle's thoughtful insight 🙏 Lots of new folks on $CDLX lately, especially from Türkiye 🇹🇷 😁 Volatility is part of the game. The major players are staying positive, and so am I 💪 Wishing Natalie Schroeter & Jamie Scott Berniker all the best as they lead Cardlytics back to its former glory. 🙏🚀🚀🚀 CC $CDLX Folks @A_L_Andrejs @AceSide2 @Banksy668 @BartuUras @beaniemaxi @BorsaGurusuTR @BoxLongs @CitronResearch @compound248 @cosmos_being @entropicccc @Hakanbey32 @imkevin2323 @JulianWy7 @kkumongbbazza @matthew_scott3 @mnymagne @nasdaqbogasi @NunoPinto112448 @PeterCorry7 @PNValueInvestor @qqiii73617 @RayAlabern @serojosstrusis @SkysTheLimitt87 @StckStratgy @Swany407 @yellowmosyo

@Han_Akamatsu $FNMA is squeezing on lower rates....$OPEN should be squeezing on being the main partner in doing title searches for FNMA with their new acquisition. I am patient and continue to average down and accumulate.

$FNMA $FMCC @MariaBartiromo this AM with Kevin Hassett. Hassett believes Kevin Warsh's Fed Chair confirmation hearing next week is on track & expects he'll be easily confirmed. He anticipates Powell leaving upon Warsh's confirmation. Bullish for Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac.

$OPEN under @nejatian has ramped up contracts by 4.5x in exactly six months. Contracts went from 125 a week to 658 a week. Some calcs for the insane: 1 - at 658 contracts per week, the approx yearly revenue is $14B from home sales only, not counting anything else 2 - at 2000 contracts per week (3x from here), approx yearly revenue is $41B This is home sales only and not counting the eco-system that the #worldclass team is building, everything from vertical integration of services to tokenization = mega platform related to Real Estate When the realization and execution results hit, it won't be pretty; it will be a violent re-rate. Load up as much as possible for #generationalwealth

$OPEN just hit 658 contracts. New all-time high under Kaz. LETS GO! 8-week trend: 537 → 449 → 442 → 390 → 447 → 610 → 545 → 658 The numbers: → 8-week avg: 510/week → +448% since Kaz started (Sept: 120) → New floor: ~530 (was 390) → New ceiling: 658 (was 537) The range keeps moving UP. And this is BEFORE: → Mortgage product scales → Doma integration kicks in → Q2 EBITDA profitability hits Now the math. If $OPEN sustains ~660 homes/week at 7% contribution margin: → 8,580 homes/quarter → $3.4B revenue → $240M contribution profit → $106M net income/quarter (after everything) → $423M net income/year → $0.42 EPS → $19.1 (45x P/E) | $31.8 (75x P/E) Net income positive. At current volume. At guided margins. The stock is $4.75. Kaz is executing. Weekly. Publicly. In real-time. The re-rate isn't coming. It's already started.

$CDLX Following Natalie Schroeter, Jamie Scott Berniker joined the $CDLX team. His Background: AMEX. JPMorgan Chase. Citi Sound familiar?😆 Top-tier talent keeps walking through the door. Meanwhile, the stock still prices in the worst-case scenario. The asymmetric opportunity is right here $CDLX linkedin.com/posts/two-exce… CC $CDLX Folks @PeterCorry7 @SkysTheLimitt87 @PNValueInvestor @Banksy668 @NunoPinto112448 @Swany407 @cosmos_being @RayAlabern @qqiii73617 @beaniemaxi @CitronResearch @kkumongbbazza @AceSide2 @compound248 @JulianWy7 @BoxLongs @A_L_Andrejs @entropicccc @matthew_scott3 @StckStratgy @nasdaqbogasi @imkevin2323 @AhmetYARIMUKR

$CDLX Report 4.5.2026: Changes to start 2Q26 (related to Wells Fargo, total offers, and advertisers), new and returning advertisers, and updated WoW, QoQ, and YoY numbers.

Excited to be joining the team at Opendoor again! “Opendoor 2.0” has me fired up to get back to what I do best: Help sellers make real estate simple - and tilt the industry towards homeowners. Couldn’t be more impressed with leadership top to bottom. LFG! $OPEN

@BillAckman @X Bravo - stand up for your principles even if it's the path of most resistance👏

I am reaching out to the @X community for advice with the likely risk of sharing TMI. I have been sufficiently upset about the whole matter that I have lost sleep thinking about it and I am hoping that this post will enable me to get this matter off my chest. By way of background, I started a family office called TABLE about 15 years ago and hired a friend who had previously managed a family office, and years earlier, had been my personal accountant. She is someone that I trusted implicitly and consider to be a good person. The office started small, but over the last decade, the number of personnel and the cost of the office grew massively. The growth was entirely on the operational side as the investment team has remained tiny. While my investment portfolio grew substantially, the investments I had made were almost entirely passive and TABLE simply needed to account for them and meet capital calls as they came in. While TABLE purchased additional software and other systems that were supposed to improve productivity, the team kept increasing in size at a rapid rate, and the expenses continued to grow even faster. While I would periodically question the growing expenses and high staff turnover, I stayed uninvolved with the office other than a once-a-year meeting when I briefly reviewed the operations and the financials and determined bonus compensation for the President and the CFO. I spent no time with any of the other employees or the operations. The whole idea behind TABLE was that it would handle everything other than my day job so that I would have more time for my job and my family. Over the last six years, expenses ballooned even further, employee turnover accelerated, and I became concerned that all was not well at TABLE. It was time for me to take a look at what was going on. Nearly four years ago, I recruited my nephew who had recently graduated from Harvard and put him to work at Bremont, a British watchmaker, one of my only active personal investments to figure out the issues at the company and ultimately assist in executing a turnaround. He did a superb job. When he returned from the UK late last year after a few years at Bremont, I asked him to help me figure out what was going on with TABLE. When I explained to TABLE’s president what he would be doing, she became incredibly defensive, which naturally made me more concerned. My nephew went to work by first meeting with each employee to understand their roles at the company and to learn from them what ideas they had on how things could be improved. He got an earful. Our first step in helping to turn around TABLE was a reduction in force including the president and about a third of the team, retaining excellent talent that had been desperate for new leadership. Now here is where I need your advice. All but one of the employees who were terminated acted professionally and were gracious on the way out (excluding the president who had a notice period in her contract, is currently still being paid, and with whom I have not yet had a discussion). The highest compensated terminated employee other than the president, an in-house lawyer (let’s call her Ronda), told us that three months of severance was not enough and demanded two years’ severance despite having worked at the company for only two and one half years. When I learned of Ronda's request for severance, I offered to speak with her to understand what she was thinking, but she refused to do so. A few days ago, we received a threatening letter from a Silicon Valley law firm. In the letter, Ronda’s counsel suggests that her termination is part of longstanding issues of ‘harassment and gender discrimination’ – an interesting claim in light of the fact that Ronda was in charge of workplace compliance – and that her termination was due to: “unlawful, retaliatory, and harmful conduct directed towards her. Both [Ronda] and I [Ronda’s lawyer] have spoken with you about [Ronda’s] view of what a reasonable resolution would include given the circumstances. Thus far, TABLE has refused to provide any substantive response. This letter provides the last opportunity to reach a satisfactory agreement. If we cannot do so, [Ronda] will seek all appropriate relief in a court of competent jurisdiction.” The letter goes on to explain the basis for the “unsafe work environment” claim at TABLE: “In early 2026, Pershing Square’s founder Bill Ackman installed his nephew in an unidentified role at TABLE, Ackman’s family office. [His nephew]—whose only work experience had been for TABLE where he was seconded abroad for the last four years to a UK watch company held by Ackman—began appearing at TABLE’s offices and conducting interviews of employees without a clear explanation of his role or the purposes of these interviews. During this period, he made a series of inappropriate and genderbased [sic] comments to multiple employees that created an unsafe work environment. Among other things, [his nephew] made remarks about female employees’ ages (“Tell me you are nowhere near 40”), physical appearance (“Your body does not look like you have kids”), as well as intrusive questions about family planning and sexual orientation (“Who carried your son? Who will carry your next child?”). These incidents were reported to senior leadership at TABLE and Pershing Square. Rather than being addressed appropriately, the response from senior management reflected, at best, willful blindness to the inappropriateness of [his nephew]’s remarks and, at worst, tacit endorsement.” The above allegations about my nephew had previously been brought to my attention by TABLE’s president when they occurred. When I learned of them, I told the president that I would speak to him directly and encouraged her to arrange for him to get workplace sensitivity training. The president assured me that she would do so. When I spoke to my nephew, he explained what he actually had said and how his actual remarks had been received, not at all as alleged in the legal letter from Ronda’s counsel. I have also spoken to others at the lunch table who confirmed his description of the facts. In any case, he meant no harm, was simply trying to build rapport with other employees, and no one, as far as I understand, was offended. Ironically, Ronda claims in her legal letter that TABLE didn’t take HR compliance seriously, yet Ronda was in charge of HR compliance at TABLE and the person who gave my nephew his workplace sensitivity training after the alleged incidents. In any case, Ronda, as head of compliance, should have kept a record or raised an alarm if indeed there was pervasive harassment or other such problems at the company, and there is no evidence whatsoever that this is true. So why does Ronda believe she can get me to pay her nearly $2 million, i.e., two years of severance, nearly one year of severance for each of her years at the company? Well, here is where some more background would be helpful. Over the last two months, I have been consumed with a major family medical issue – one of my older daughters had a massive brain hemorrhage on February 5th and has since been making progress on her recovery – and I am in the midst of a major transaction for my company which I am executing from a hospital room office next to her . While the latter business matter is publicly known, the details of my daughter’s situation are only known to Ronda because of her role at our family office. Now, let’s get back to the subject at hand. Unfortunately, while New York and many other states have employment-at-will, there has emerged an industry of lawyers who make a living from bringing fake gender, race, LGBTQ and other discrimination employment claims in order to extract larger severance payments for terminated employees, and it needs to stop. The fake claim system succeeds because it costs little to have a lawyer send a threatening letter and nearly all of the lawyers in this field work on contingency so there is no or minimal cash cost to bring a claim. And inevitably, nearly 100% of these claims are settled because the public relations and legal costs of defending them exceed the dollar cost of the settlement. The claims are nearly always settled with a confidentiality agreement where the employee who asserts the fake claims remains anonymous and as a result, there is no reputational cost to bringing false claims. The consequences of this sleazy system (let’s call it ‘the System’) are the increased costs of doing business which is a tax on the economy and society. There are other more serious problems due to the System. Unfortunately, the existence of an industry of plaintiff firms and terminated employees willing to make these claims makes it riskier for companies to hire employees from a protected class, i.e., LGBTQ, seniors, women, people of color etc. because it is that much more reputationally damaging and expensive to be accused of racism, sexism, and/or intolerance for sexual diversity than for firing a white male as juries generally have less sympathy for white males. The System therefore increases the risk of discrimination rather than reducing it, and the people bringing these fake claims are thereby causing enormous harm to the other members of these protected classes. So what happened here? Ronda was vastly overpaid and overqualified for the job that she did at TABLE. She was paid $1.05 million plus benefits last year for her work which was largely comprised of filling out subscription agreements and overseeing an outside law firm on closing passive investments in funds and in private and venture stage companies, some compliance work, and managing the office move from one office to another. She had a very good gig as she was highly paid, only had to go into the office three days a week, and could work from anywhere during the summer. Once my nephew showed up and started to investigate what was going on, she likely concluded that there was a reasonable possibility she would be terminated, as her job was in the too-easy-and-to-good-to-be-true category. The problem was that she was not in a protected class due to her race, age or sexual identity so she had to construct the basis for a claim. While she is female and could in theory bring a gender-based discrimination claim, she reported to the president who is female and to whom she is very close, which makes it difficult for her to bring a harassment claim against her former boss. When my nephew complimented a TABLE employee at lunch about how young she looked – in response to saying she was going to her 40-year-old sister’s birthday party, he said ‘she must be your older sister’ – Ronda immediately reported it to our external HR lawyer. She thereby began building her case. The other problem for Ronda bringing a claim is that she was terminated alongside 30% of other TABLE employees as part of a restructuring so it is very difficult for her to say that she was targeted in her termination or was retaliated against. TABLE is now hiring an external fractional general counsel as that is all the company needs to process the relatively limited amount of legal work we do internally. In short, Ronda was eminently qualified and capable and did her job. She was just too much horsepower for what is largely an administrative legal role so she had to come up with something else to bring a claim. Now Ronda knew I was a good target and it was a good time to bring a claim against me. She also knew that I was under a lot of pressure because on March 4th when Ronda was terminated, my daughter had not yet emerged from consciousness, she was not yet breathing on her own, and my daughter and we were fighting for her life. I was and remain deeply engaged in her recovery while at the same time I was working on finishing the closing for the private placement round for my upcoming IPO. Ronda also knew that publicity about supposed gender discrimination and a “hostile and unsafe work environment” are not things that a CEO of a company about to go public wants to have released into the media. And she may have thought that the nearly $2 million she was asking for would be considered small in the context of the reputational damage a lawsuit could cause, regardless of the fact that two years of severance was an absurd amount for an employee who had only worked at TABLE for 30 months. She also likely considered that I wouldn’t want to embarrass my nephew by dragging him into the klieg lights when her claims emerged publicly. So, in summary, game theory would say that I would certainly settle this case, for why would I risk negative publicity at a time when I was preparing our company to go public and also risk embarrassing my nephew. Notably, she hired a Silicon Valley law firm, rather than a typical NY employment firm. This struck me as interesting as her husband works for one of the most prominent Silicon Valley venture firms whose CEO, I am sure, has no tolerance for these kinds of fake claims that sadly many venture-backed companies also have to deal with. I mention this as I suspect her husband likely has been working with her on the strategy for squeezing me as, in addition to being a computer scientist, he is a game theorist. My only advice for him is to understand more about your opponent before you launch your first move. All of the above said, gender, race, LGBTQ and other such discrimination is a real thing. Many people have been harmed and deserve compensation for this discrimination, and these companies and individuals should be punished for engaging in such behavior. Which brings me to the advice I am seeking from the X community. I am not planning to follow the typical path and settle this ‘claim.’ Rather, I am going to fight this nonsense to the end of the earth in the hope that it inspires other CEOs to do the same so we shut down this despicable behavior that is a large tax on society, employment, and the economy and contributes to workplace discrimination rather than reducing it. Do you agree or disagree that this is the right approach?

AI is creating a world where companies need fewer employees and more high agency builders. Founders and builders are attracted to the size of the opportunity, the probability of success, and an empowering culture. $OPEN to $200 billion within 5 years is probable

@dolores_capital @cedargrovecm I never understood the $GENK appeal. $PTLO all the way for me

Portillos $PTLO is looking interesting at these prices. The balance sheet is a little ruff, but the business concept seems to be gaining traction. They are expanding rapidly and the chain is busy every time I enter one. This one could easily turn into a multibagger.

Finally had a chance to do more research on Opendoor $OPEN acquiring Doma and impact on Opendoor’s business. Normally when you refinance your mortgage, you have to pay for title insurance — it’s one of those annoying closing costs that adds up. Doma built AI that can quickly assess whether a refinance is low-risk enough to skip that requirement entirely. Fannie Mae liked it, ran a pilot starting in 2024, and about 80% of eligible loans qualified. The program saves homeowners roughly $1,100 per refinance. The Fannie Mae pilot was just extended through 2027, meaning it has government-backed runway. Doma’s problem was it couldn’t handle the volume of demand — so it needed a bigger partner to scale. That’s where Opendoor comes in. In short: Doma has the AI that cuts a major closing cost. Fannie Mae blessed it. Opendoor has the infrastructure to bring it to millions more homeowners.

@Openroar 10x is achievable within 24 months

The math on Fannie and Freddie is so dislocated it looks like a pricing error. Fannie printed $14.4 billion in net income last year. Freddie printed $10.7 billion. Combined market cap on the pink sheets right now: ~$12 billion. The market is pricing $25 billion in annual earnings at a 0.48x multiple. Find me another 0.48x earnings multiple anywhere in American finance. It doesn't exist. The dilution fear is the reason the stock is cheap and the reason the stock is wrong. Treasury put in $187 billion. The GSEs have swept back over $300 billion since 2012. That's an 11.6% IRR. If Treasury exercises its 79.9% warrants at today's price, the government's stake is worth ~$9.6 billion. If it exercises post-relist at 10x earnings, that stake is worth $200 billion. The difference is $190 billion. Washington doesn't leave $190 billion on the table to spite penny stock holders. Capital requirements look scary until you do the arithmetic. The ERCF says $334 billion. They have $179 billion. The FHFA can lower Tier 1 to 2.5% without Congress. New target: ~$190 billion. Gap: $11 billion. One IPO closes it. One year of retained earnings closes it twice. G-fees are already at 65 bps. Pre-crisis they were 20. The GSEs have been charging privatized pricing inside a conservatorship for 14 years. Credit losses outside of 2008 average under 5 bps. The margin is so fat that mortgage rates don't move at all on release. So what are you actually buying at $5? A royalty on the American mortgage system. 65 bps on $7.5 trillion in outstanding MBS. $48 billion in gross annual revenue. Under 5 bps in historical losses. The most predictable spread in finance, backstopped by a guarantee both parties have publicly committed to preserving. JPMorgan trades at 13x and takes real credit risk. Utilities trade at 15x with half the visibility. These two trade at 0.48x collecting tolls on other people's risk. The second those warrants convert and the NYSE listing goes live, every index fund and pension fund with a financial sector mandate has to buy. Two of the ten most profitable companies in America, sitting on the pink sheets, waiting for one signature.

The market wants your full attention on Iran. We have no special insight into the next turn in the conflict, and while we remain appropriately positioned for a range of outcomes, our time is better spent in transcripts, filings, and models. Selloffs create opportunity. More high-quality companies are beginning to trade at prices disconnected from underlying business value. Eventually, fundamentals reassert themselves. For example, we have been adding to a company trading 50%+ below its long-term average multiple, with an incentivized management team and a credible path to doubling EPS over the next 3 years through self-help initiatives. We see a path to a 2-3x return without heroic assumptions... and it has a pristine balance sheet to weather a weaker macro backdrop. Excited to share soon.

@michaeljburry Stupidly cheap indeed. $FNMA $FMCC

And Fannie and Freddie are stupidly cheap. Asymmetry at its best. They could be a 10X and it could happen soon.

$CDLX Report 3.29.2026: Completion of the sale of Bridg to PAR, returning advertisers, and updated WoW, QoQ, and YoY numbers.