Panda Value

@PEoperator 100% what I bumped into. Also found an odd dynamic where execs scared to hire smart, hungry, pedigreed mid-30 somethings in fear that they were hiring their replacement. In fact, got that very specific feedback in one instance.

@PandaValue Classic case of trying not to get fired… easy to hire experience / pedigree even if there is higher level talent available

I get a lot of inbounds about how to get a job at a private equity portfolio company. The truth is, unless you are CEO or CFO (maybe corp dev), you need to be talking to the portco, not the private equity firm. Most firms let the portcos handle their own hiring, though they will get involved in key hires. I’ve posted a bunch on how to identify portfolio companies both here and on my newsletter (link in bio). Of course a warm intro from the PE firm always helps but it’s probably not the best route. Find a way to network into the portco and treat it like you would any other company. As you move through the interview process and get close to an offer, ask if you can speak with someone from the PE firm. This will give you visibility but also help you get more info for your decision. That visibility will be critical when you ask for your equity award (preferably before you are hired).

@JD_Patrick @InnocenceCapit1 I couldn't disagree with that more. So the bulk of members at Augusta / Pine Valley aren't golfers? College golfers? US Amateur winners? Common man.

@PandaValue @InnocenceCapit1 Unless you can show me a PGA Card, PGM diploma, or Tour Card we are all fake golfers - enjoy the game however you want to in a way that doesn't offend others with intent.

One of my favorite additions to my bag - Jolly Golf Pilgrim organizer Refined minimal way to keep the essentials actually sorted and your bag pockets uncluttered. Slides into the saddle pocket on a bag or toss it into the front of the cart pre-round. Yes it's a clutch, so what

@InnocenceCapit1 @JD_Patrick easy tell to say you aren't a real golfer.

@JD_Patrick Idk man, seems like overkill You going to actually put tees in the individual slots? Idk I take a few and a ballmarker or 2, put them in my pants pocket and go. If there are unbroken tees left at the end, I put them in my ball pocket. Yeah, cluttered, but no big deal.

@SleepwellCap I think it will be either 1) really really cool 2) really really stupid and 3) will long-term damage the brand of AP 4) will mark the end of the "collab"

Lots of silly takes out there on the AP x Swatch collab. Controversial for sure, they will cost a few hundred bucks (my guess is $500-750) and trade at multiples of that in secondary (5-10x at first) Very likely a very limited run, unlike Omega which they’re milking the hell out of (Swatch owns Omega) It’s supposed to be mechanical, not Quartz (like Blancpain), based on the official teaser. No, the official photos aren’t out yet. EVERYONE is posting fan made AI slop. Rumors that it might even be a pocket watch with some sort of strap. I don’t think it will be a straight forward RO shape with the same bracelet. There’s likely an interesting twist to it if AP did something as crazy as this. I think personally it’s a stupid idea, but also completely unprecedented for a luxury brand of that stature to do something like that. So I might be wrong here. If anyone has a good analogue, please share. and no, Omega is certainly not comparable to this at all. I think it certainly boosts the brand awareness by A LOT in the short term (genius marketing move), but potentially comes at a cost with long term implications in loss in brand halo and brand equity value, especially around the collector community (which is very important to nurture). None of this means I wouldn’t buy one, let’s see how they look! I can think it’s a stupid strategic move while still like the product at a price. There’s no “IP angle” here to battle fakes or copy cats. that’s silly, there’s tons of octagonal bezel models priced at $200 (eg Tissot, Casio) out there and has zero impact on AP. If anything it helps, look at how many brands copy the Submariner form factor and shape and that makes Rolex even more popular. Point is AP had zero need to do something like this. No, they don’t need to target 20year olds, all of them know the brand from seeing the biggest hip hop stars and football players wearing APs. Omega actually had a business need to do a collab, nobody cared about that brand these days up until now. Would have never guessed in a million years AP would dare to do something like this. But if any True Luxury watch brand would do this, it would certainly be the one that did a Marvel collab🤷🏻 Definitely fascinating stuff to watch.

@BronchickJ @mastersinvest this is the best take you have ever written.

@mastersinvest If investors spent less time listening to other investors and more time with blank piece of paper, a basic spreadsheet, a proxy statement and some alone time to think, clients would be better off.

‘VALUExBRK 2026 | Bill Ackman, Mohnish Pabrai, Tom Gayner, Chris Bloomstran & More…’ youtube.com/live/V3V7bqLGP…

@oscarazocar50 @MackinacCap i have RARELY seen a holdco do as much. Typically what they end up doing is monetizing pieces of it and reinvesting back into the holdco. Whether it be via M&A or buybacks (in an attempt to close the discount).

@PandaValue @MackinacCap Spinning off MGM stake tax free is not easy to do given relative size of position

I sold all my shares in $IAC. By far my most painful investment that extended well beyond the financial loss. I was so very wrong. I learned a ton of lessons from it.

@MackinacCap I think that would be a homerun outcome for $IAC. My only question is why didn't they say as much?

@PandaValue Probably going to nuke the minority assets and buy as many shares back as possible, then spin MGM, leaving People stand alone. Seems like a fine outcome to me. Undervalued, but no one seems to care for a digital publisher right now. Not sure if that ever changes.

@feliperojas1984 I've never owned Fairfax.

@PandaValue gracias panda for the value, i assume you are still on the other holdcos $exor $prosus $brk $FFH.TO?

@valuechad @JCJC915661 that would be a great outcome - who do you think would buy it?

@PandaValue @JCJC915661 The main problem with $IAC is that for awhile you were really buying $ANGI , personally I think Diller is going to sell the whole company within the next few years

@feliperojas1984 If it were me, I would distribute a huge chuck of the $1B on the balance sheet. I just don't think an entire new management team - who has never really allocated capital - is going to be super aggressive buying back stock when their business needs scale.

@feliperojas1984 They are currently allocating capital to $MGM. I don't see them spinning it off given how cheap it is. Plus Diller would lose his board seat. It is obvious to me that they are going to make bolt-on acquisitions with People. This asset is in the eye of the AI storm.

@JCJC915661 Too many to list - but a lot revolving around bias, thesis drift, and putting too much emphasis on one's track record / incentives versus the underlying business.

@PandaValue Mind sharing the lessons?

@feliperojas1984 1) I suspect the buybacks will ramp down. 2) They are moving away from a holdco 3) They are going to lean into People, a business I don't love 4) I can own MGM outright 5) I suspect they will use Care proceeds / cash to buy more digital media

@PandaValue Panda, why not add, seems they are pulling a singleton type of buyback, can you sahre what was your thesis, they did overpay for people

@PEoperator @ProfPaulNary The key point in that is buy versus build IMHO. You can set the culture and understand the business via a build in a way that is virtually impossible buying (especially at scale).

@ProfPaulNary As I wrote this, was thinking about how Elon has taken a near-opposite approach (granted, he tends to build the verticalization which is meaningfully different). Sometimes the opposite of a good idea is another good idea.

Horizontal vs. Vertical M&A lessons from John Malone: Malone’s bread and butter were horizontal deals where he created value by operationally improving the target and refusing to overpay He also seemed to know intuitively what research shows over and over: most vertical deals are misguided. That margin expansion and benefits of control never materialize. There are very few instances where vertical integration is the right move, and Nobel winner Oliver Williamson and the research that follows him do a great job describing most of those special cases. But that doesn’t mean that the vertical dimension doesn’t matter, it’s just that most often, full ownership isn’t the right governance form. So, Malone’s core strategy vertically was to make minority investments and partnerships and to engage in more careful partner and supplier management. He wielded great influence and helped grow and protect the industry and the ecosystem without resorting to full ownership. One of many great lessons from him.

@tcoste110 @ethanrkho timestamp?

@PandaValue @ethanrkho I get it. Took me a minute.

"I haven't seen a real new idea in trading in at least 15 years." Tom Costello (@tcoste110) ran money at Tudor, Moore Capital, and Caxton. Built one of the first NLP-driven equity systems in 2003. 20 years managing capital, never had a down year. "Comparing what a retail trader does to what a quantitative hedge fund does is like comparing driving a bus on the New Jersey Turnpike to winning a Formula One race." We cover: - His hot take: no genuinely new trading idea in 15 years — only better people doing the same things faster - Why everyone in quant finance is a genius — and why that makes you ordinary, not special - Crypto is "super smart guys cosplaying at finance" — built for retail, which is exactly why it's the easiest money in finance right now - Why AGI won't beat the hedge fund industry — all the readily-capturable alpha is already captured - The status trap: why the path that made Paul Tudor Jones a billionaire won't work for the kid trying to copy it in 2026 - His friend the investment banker who'd quit it all to run a 10-employee ambulance supply company worth $150M - Why excitement is "wildly overbid" in finance — and why wanting an exciting trading job is itself a disqualifier - The most honest end of the financial industry — and why the media has it exactly backwards Thanks so much to Tom for coming on Odds on Open! Highlights: 00:00 Intro 01:18 Building institutional credibility for early-stage managers 03:01 The Pareto distribution of hedge fund returns 04:25 Applying the Unified Field Theory of Finance to fair value 08:14 Trading against human incentives in a deterministic market 13:54 Why allocators don’t steal alpha from prospective PMs 25:16 Evaluating career edge in quantitative finance for 2026 30:48 Paul Tudor Jones and the art of game selection 33:42 Analyzing the economic viability of starting a new fund 35:16 Identifying common retail pitfalls: Mean reversion and arbitrage 38:55 Why there hasn't been a new trading idea in 15 years 50:33 Managing tail risk: Physics vs. deterministic financial distributions 59:10 Career pathing for PMs after a fund blow-up 1:07:53 SBF and FTX: Credibility vs. the "Founder-Genius" archetype 1:13:44 Establishing proof-of-concept through audited multi-year returns

@PEoperator already is - growth equity

PE name change inbound. Suggestions?

6) The best holdcos have an engine: What is the engine here? 7) You talk about investing in 12 high quality businesses. But does this structure allow you to hedge/swaps, etc. That was your biggest winner in COVID. 8) How do you measure success? Returns in excess of SPY?

4) With so much going on, why should we think this is your primary focus 5) Established holco's like BRK, IAC, Prosus, Exor, trade at a material discount to NAV. Your vehicle also did. This will too. That feels like an unneccesary distraction.

Everyone on this Ackman spaces is asking the wrong Qs. 1) What do you think a reasonable discount to NAV this will trade at? 2) How are your incentives aligned with your other strategies 3) What conflicts are there w/ $PS, $PSUS, $HHH and your HF/FO that you will navigate