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Encouraging you to follow my current handle:
@prometheuscht
The Consilience blog handle: @Consiliency
This handle will cover my new project which will launch in due course.
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80.3K posts
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@PrometheusAM
Follow me on @prometheuscht too.
🇦🇺🇬🇧🇮🇱🇺🇦🇹🇼🇭🇰 Katılım Haziran 2013
2.7K Takip Edilen10.5K Takipçiler
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Great to see that FinTwit's resident equity vol maestro @Ksidiii has been crushing it!
Hedge Fund Alpha@Hedgefundalpha
1/ Most tail-risk funds bleed slowly… Until they don’t. Ambrus Capital turned volatility spikes into +25% in a single month and over 50% net in two years. 🧵
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This process that we are but a small part of appears to be awfully indifferent to human suffering, remaining wholly unconcerned with justice or fairness, and completely unmoved by regard for individual human stories... Yet, for the most part, we insist it is otherwise.
CHT@PrometheusCHT
A lovely young woman with terminal cancer (due to VHL) decided yesterday to discontinue her chemotherapy due to the ghastly side effects she must face simply to extend her lifespan for a little while longer. In defiance of the inevitable, she's going to have a gathering in her hospital room with her friends and family for her last day, before turning off the ventilator to give herself the ultimate respite on her own terms. This thing we call nature is inexplicably cruel, dispensing a sort of cosmic caprice that is universally unprejudiced in its rationing of suffering... It is so neutral, it seems cold and heartless, not unlike a rusty, serrated knife twisted through the ribcage.
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@Mercantio @Gabe_Bernarde @chalis_stonks Sounds pretty sus. What about goats? Are they safe around you?
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@PrometheusAM @Gabe_Bernarde @chalis_stonks There are no childrens involved and this is clear libel. You can say whatever you like, but Gabriel is going to receive the relevant treatment for this misconduct.
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BREAKING: I have also been informed @Mercantio is an infamous nonce who harasses women on twitter. #noncealert
Gabe@Gabe_Bernarde
Somehow today, I am getting mogged for *not* shorting Sivers, which is up 30% on the day. Make sure to follow @Mercantio as a contra. No one has been on the wrong side of my trades more often. They are truly exceptional at being shit.
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@Mercantio @Gabe_Bernarde @chalis_stonks Have you heard of discovery? Looks like we've skipped to that part! 😂
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@Gabe_Bernarde @PrometheusAM @chalis_stonks Okay then suit yourself, you can misbehave and spread libel and defame me online, but you will take responsibility for this act.
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@Gabe_Bernarde @PrometheusAM @chalis_stonks I won't issue any apology, you have 24 hours to remove all content and make a formal apology regardless. I am going to make sure that you get a full responsible act for this slender and misconduct!
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@PrometheusAM @chalis_stonks @Gabe_Bernarde I can't be a pedophile but he's going to get reported to relevant authorities!
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@chalis_stonks @Gabe_Bernarde Han är registrerad i Melbourne, kontaktar polisen där just nu.
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@PrometheusCHT @Gabe_Bernarde @Mercantio You reckon he consulted his holy book on this behaviour!?! #nonce
GIF
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Revolutionary socialism's central assumptions are a kind of historicism. That the world is fixed, with the inevitable outcome that the downtrodden and disenfranchised are predestined to suffer, unless a saviour comes along with enough compassion and courage to liberate them from their hopeless condition.
It almost sounds biblical in a way. Alas, like a lot of mythology, it is pseudoscience, immunised from criticism, impervious to empirical refutation, blind and deaf when faced with any rational reason to the contrary.
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Eschatological judgement days are a kind of historicism.
"... the Islamic Republic runs an eschatological project that happens to possess a government. What it actually builds toward... the Day of Judgment... a battlefield that time never closed, still accumulating its martyrs, still moving toward its predetermined conclusion.
In ideologies centered on the end of the world, believers discover a profound certainty that removes all doubt about the future. This conviction serves as a divine promise. History does not remain truly open-ended, since God has already determined its final outcome."
Zineb Riboua@zriboua
My latest The IRGC's Eschatological Gamble and the Arab World's Verdict How the Arab World Reads the IRGC In a certain sense, the Islamic Republic runs an eschatological project that happens to possess a government. What it actually builds toward, always, is Qiyamah, the Day of Judgment. For Khomeini, Karbala and Qiyamah formed a single continuous arc, a battlefield that time never closed, still accumulating its martyrs, still moving toward its predetermined conclusion. In ideologies centered on the end of the world, believers discover a profound certainty that removes all doubt about the future. This conviction serves as a divine promise. History does not remain truly open-ended, since God has already determined its final outcome. A normal Western politician carefully weighs risks and adapts to changing circumstances. But the true committed IRGC revolutionary, driven by this unshakable faith, inhabits an entirely different relationship with time. For him, the final victory is already secured. The present does not create the future, and merely confirms what was always destined to occur. But this orientation collides at every point with the mainstream Sunni worldview, which treats Judgment Day as a matter of divine concealment rather than political schedule. Sunni tradition forbids the forcing of providence and regards any state organized around accelerating the end of history as a deviation from Islam rather than its fulfillment. The Arab world reads the IRGC through this very lens, and what it sees is not a pious republic being tested, but a heterodox project masquerading as the fulfillment of faith, structurally incapable of assessing its strategic failures. zinebriboua.com/p/the-irgcs-es…
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Regarding my criticism of Islamism, let me accurately explain what I oppose using Max Weber's sociological framework.
I have no issue with an *inner-worldly* ascetism, where people determine their *this-worldly* personal conduct freely, as they so please, according to their faithful religious beliefs... That only becomes an issue where that conduct trespasses on others freedoms, since it violates the principle of pluralism. Hence, I oppose when that other-worldly supernaturalism and superstition encourages *outer-wordly* aspirations for a theocratic programme — this, is what Islamism is, and it warrants criticism.
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The back and forth alluded to here is the process of *conjectures and refutations*. This is the logic of scientific discovery, a la Popper.
However, there is a misunderstanding in the interpretation, which is that theorising about a problem is what enables the preselection of data which might shed some light on it.
Accordingly, the very act of looking is guided by our prior assumptions. Ultimately, there is no such thing as pre-theoretical data, because, in practice, the data are theory-impregnated.
Itai Yanai@ItaiYanai
There's a strange myth about science: that theory comes first, and that data cannot show anything new. But anyone who's ever done science knows the truth that there's a long conversation between data & hypotheses. Back & forth.. until the discovery. And if you think about it, it has to be this way! (Night Science recap, Day 6)
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The flotilla crew is suffering a bad case of neo-puritanism, and maybe the clap.
Drew Pavlou 🇦🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼@DrewPavlou
Update from the Gaza flotilla: activists are furious that a senior organising member of the Steering Committee is having sex with people on the boats “To have sex on the boat - while heading to a nation undergoing genocide - is a clear violation of ethics and power” Lmfao
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Now that I have gotten your attention, I thought I would spend some time showing my appreciation to some incredible people in the space.
They have helped me more than they know, in ways they aren't aware of. Some have work that has greatly influenced my thinking. Others have been generous with their knowledge, others with their experience, and else with their support.
Above all, they are great humans, and handful I consider friends.
tradfi/systematic/macro
@LacertaXG1
@Merridew__
@PrometheusCHT
@SinclairEuan
@therobotjames
@choffstein
@AgustinLebron3
@ old Volatility/Chief Quant
crypto/systematic/hft
@quant_arb
@liquiditygoblin
@BeatzXBT
@OctopusTakopi
@dbytesmith
@MarkBestForex
@KlondikeFX
@vehcktor
@littleVolSwan
@Dub0x3A
And it doesn't even begin to cover the list of all the amazing people on here. I could go on and on. We might not have interacted, maybe even in the last 2-3 years, but I remember...and thanks for being you!
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At the end of the ninth round, you don't say that all the punches a fighter has landed through the course of the fight have been inconsequential, simply because they have not yet knocked out the opponent.
However, somehow this logic is being applied to the conflict with the IRGC — ignoring that resistance accumulates. Further, it omits the counterfactual reality: they'd be far stronger and much closer to long-range ICBM and a warhead without intervention.
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I don't think Trump plays 5D chess at all... But it is interesting that people were acting as though his madman style bluff was anything other than noise to try to impose his will on the IRGC and its maniacs.
That said, one wonders if the intent is to buy time for another objective, and to get some stranded vessels through, temporarily managing markets and confidence.
There's certainly no primer for this sort of dynamic tweet game... My view is talks fall over, since this situation is just as intractable as it was before the war. Accordingly, I'm assuming the status quo here.
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Following up on a piece I wrote in 2024 about $FRDM, then an $800mm 4-Star fund, now a $2.5B 5-Star fund. TL;DR Freedom continues to work for citizens and investors alike.
allyoucanetf.substack.com/p/freedom-inve…
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