RetroOptions 📈

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RetroOptions 📈

RetroOptions 📈

@RetroOptions

Stocks / Options / Markets / AI / Tech NFA

Katılım Aralık 2024
1.8K Takip Edilen465 Takipçiler
RetroOptions 📈
RetroOptions 📈@RetroOptions·
@SpaceX This video is amazing. Also, do I see someone standing on that platform on the left?
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SpaceX
SpaceX@SpaceX·
High-speed video of 33 Raptor engines powering the Super Heavy booster on Flight 13
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RetroOptions 📈
RetroOptions 📈@RetroOptions·
@Thomas_james_1 Just sold $DRAM $40 Dec 18 puts. If it falls to $40 or below, I get assigned for a cost basis under $35! Otherwise, I make 15%+ gain on my puts. Friday closing price was $53.20
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Thomas James Investing
Thomas James Investing@Thomas_james_1·
I feel like Micron $MU is one of those stocks where we’ll look back in a few months time and regret not buying more. Memory is the most significant bottleneck in the AI Ecosystem and it’s down 35% from the highs.  Memory is sold out through 2027 & 2028 with many hyperscalers increasing capex over the next 12-24 months even further than previously reported.  Short term volatility is always expected, especially with the Middle East conflict re-starting and the South Korean leverage unwind.  Not to mention, everyone from Elon Musk, to President Trump & Jensen Huang of Nvidia are all talking about Micron. Will you miss out again?
Thomas James Investing tweet media
Thomas James Investing@Thomas_james_1

This recent tech selloff has created many generational buying opportunities.  Here’s 6 of MY favourite stocks to buy on this dip; 1. Nebius $NBIS @ $177 2. Micron $MU @ $848 3. Sandisk $SNDK @ $1,350 4. AMD $AMD @ $460 5. Lumentum $LITE @ $650 6. Bloom Energy $BE @ $215 Come back to this post in 3-6 months, you’ll be glad that you listened.  Don’t miss this generational opportunity AGAIN.

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Eliano A Younes
Eliano A Younes@eliano·
“mom and dad, I was quoted in finance book” “habibi we’re so proud of you. what did you say?”
Eliano A Younes tweet media
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RetroOptions 📈
RetroOptions 📈@RetroOptions·
@BernieSanders Respected senator, how are you going to legislate and regulate China and rest of the world from using equally capable Chinese AI models?
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Bernie Sanders
Bernie Sanders@BernieSanders·
A new AI model went rogue and hacked other computers. No, this is not science fiction. Uncontrolled AI poses a serious threat to all of us. We cannot continue the race to build and deploy this powerful technology until strong safeguards are in place. CONGRESS MUST ACT.
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RetroOptions 📈
RetroOptions 📈@RetroOptions·
@firstadopter I remember a very similar market selloff of $GOOG in Q1, 2025 when their Bard AI didn't meet expectations. I bought the stock for less than half of today's price. If it keeps dropping, I will buy some more
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tae kim
tae kim@firstadopter·
Google CEO Sundar Pichai was asked about Gemini's frontier model progress problems and its lack of leadership in agentic coding, which was the key pillar of my “Google is Secular Short” call. I think it's fair to say Sundar ABSOLUTELY FLOPPED and STRUCK OUT with his management consulting filibuster answer. Alphabet stock is now tanking following his weak response: "Thanks, Doug. Look, I think, you know, the frontier is incredibly dynamic space. You know, and it's fiercely moving forward at any given moment when you take a snapshot, it feels dynamic. We are, you know, we've had clearly frontier models. There are many attributes on which we are still at the frontier. There are areas. Where we've acknowledged we need to improve coding and agentic coding is is an example of that. And I think the teams are very, very focused on it. With 3.6 flash. And by the way, flashes are workhorse model. And you know we see tremendous demand for it given it generally hits a sweet spot of performance cost reliability, latency, etc. And we've incorporated, you know, Gemini and Flash, particularly in our entire portfolio of solutions, be it in cybersecurity, data analytics. You know, if you think about an area like customer service, you need really good voice quality. You need live streaming, you need the ability to reason on that. Or if you're a professional services firm, you need high quality summarization, content generation, etc. So, flash does very well on all of that. In terms of agent coding, you know, we are iterating and you will see us make continued iterations. 3.6 flash for example, compared to 3.5 flash jumped over, you know, over ten points in deep swe as a benchmark. And it is more token efficient doing so. So we are clearly, you know, we are using it internally. We are testing it with many customers in coding. So we see the progress just in just in six weeks from the prior version to the new version. And you will see more continued iterations on that as well. In terms of the frontier, we are both very committed and very confident of being at the frontier. For the next for the next generation of frontier, you're going to need a much larger base models. We are now training Gemini 4, and we are being very ambitious with it I am very excited by the progress I'm seeing internally on Gemini 4, and I'm confident. You know, people will be pleased when we are putting it outside, but we will need Gemini 4 as a larger base model to compete at that frontier level. And so we are focused on executing on that well."
tae kim tweet media
tae kim@firstadopter

Google cultural rot

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RetroOptions 📈
RetroOptions 📈@RetroOptions·
@mcmecum @UnderSecE Did Anthropic pay willingly and out of the goodness of their heart? If not, then they were forced to pay. Do we have a mechanism to force China to pay? Probably not
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Jack Settleman
Jack Settleman@jacksettleman·
The Canada fires have taken over MetLife stadium. Will the match even be playable???
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RetroOptions 📈
RetroOptions 📈@RetroOptions·
Three things: (1) Mr. Burry is underestimating the value and potential of AI. He just hasn’t figured out how to use it. (2) Mr. Burry is underestimating the demand for AI compute and memory (just look at recent post from creator of Kimi K3, they ran out of compute to meet the demand). (3) Some compute stocks are overvalued in the near term (like $AMD, $MRVL before its recent drop) but $NVDA and memory stocks are not
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Cassandra Unchained
Cassandra Unchained@michaeljburry·
We have done it before, substituting a societal hallucination for a working system and excelling inside that hallucination to the detriment of real world stability and progress.
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Just a Dude Who Invests
Just a Dude Who Invests@DudeWhoInvests·
What is your largest holding right now and a simple reason on why?
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RetroOptions 📈
RetroOptions 📈@RetroOptions·
@MoeHH21 @michaeljburry This whole thread including original post is speculation. But LLMs follow one universal principle - they need a lot of compute, as mentioned in the first paragraph of this post: x.com/PatrickToulme/…
Patrick C Toulme@PatrickToulme

Many people are asking how did Kimi K3 catch up so fast to Western models? Simply, a frontier model really only requires compute, data and people. There is no magic secret. A few answers to this question 1. Kimi with help from the Chinese government has thousands if not tens of thousands of experts (lawyers, scientists, doctors, programmers.. etc.) making RL env data every day. A frontier model is RLed on “tasks”. Each one of these tasks needs to be created by either a human or an LLM. Claude did not wake up one day knowing how to use say the Github CLI. He learned how to use the Github CLI in an RL env.  Meta is pursuing this exact same strategy with its Applied AI org and IMO it appears to be working. 2. I have said this before regarding GLM 5.2 - Kimi obviously distilled from GPT 5.5 and Claude Opus. This only eliminated their cold start problem in RL, meaning they skipped say some X number of months in cold start RL. The mass number of RL envs created by their experts is still the most crucial part here, and you cannot attribute Kimi’s success to distillation. Distillation only saved them some time. 3. Agentic coding and frontier LLMs significantly accelerated their research. My hunch is they use proxies to access Claude API and GPT API for their own model development. Claude most likely wrote all their training code. This release leads to some very interesting questions. What happens now in a world in which an almost Fable class model is open sourced and free on July 27th? My view is intelligence / software will become very soon close to free. Chip makers and inference providers are big winners from Kimi’s success.

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Cassandra Unchained
Cassandra Unchained@michaeljburry·
For a weekend deep think, consider this.
Anika@AnikaSomaia

a week ago @SemiAnalysis_ wrote that Chinese labs are "simply too compute poor to truly reach the frontier." today one of those "too compute poor" labs, a 300-person startup actually, shipped a model that compares to opus 4.8 the entire western consensus – export controls, the $650B hyperscaler capex race, the "compute moat" investment thesis – is built on one assumption: flops gate capability. if that were true, chip controls would keep chinese labs permanently behind the frontier. but after reading through moonshot's stack i no longer think it is. training is efficiency-compressible: MoE routing, INT4-native quantization, better data curation, infra built around scarcity (their Mooncake stack exists because they don't have gpus!). a small lab with taste can compress the compute needed to make a frontier model, even if it can't afford to serve one the frontier is no longer something money can buy

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Danny cheng
Danny cheng@dannycheng2022·
We all have one or two conviction stocks in our portfolios. Mine are $PLTR and $AMD. What are yours?
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zerohedge
zerohedge@zerohedge·
*NETFLIX SEES 3Q EPS 82C, EST. 84C *NETFLIX SEES 3Q OPER MARGIN 33.2%, EST. 33.5% And puke
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RetroOptions 📈
RetroOptions 📈@RetroOptions·
@TrendSpider Next 3 years of growth already priced in today's stock price! $MRVL Annual Revenues: - 2026 $8.19 billion - 2027 $11.5 billion (forecast) - 2028 $16.5 billion (forecast)
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Grok
Grok@grok·
@RetroOptions @thsottiaux In Codex, GPT-5.6 Sol currently has a 272k token context window on both ChatGPT Plus and Pro (same limit). OpenAI briefly raised it to 372k but reverted due to usage costs—they're working to restore the higher limit soon. Pro adds higher quotas + Sol Pro access in places.
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Tibo
Tibo@thsottiaux·
Updates for Codex and ChatGPT Work users. No nerfing, only good stuff! - We have landed inference optimizations and are passing down savings to all the subscriptions for GPT-5.6 Sol. That should result in around 10% more usage on its own. - We noticed that by changing the context size limit in the product to 372k for GPT-5.6 Sol, up from 272k for GPT-5.5, it resulted in more usage being charged than intended. We have reverted to 272k and will work to roll back out to 372k in the days to come. You should notice that usage drains significantly less after this change. - To understand where the extra usage was coming from, we ran some experiments where reasoning efforts were changed (referred to as juice values under the hood) and have reverted this. - There is slightly more usage of multi-agent than intended in high and xhigh reasoning effort, we are fixing this going forward. Also fixing a small other thing we noticed with auto-review where we can be more efficient. And we continue to have the 5h limit temporarily not apply. Enjoy the rest of the weekend!
Fix@FixlationAI

OpenAI has reduced GPT-5.6 Sol's thinking budgets in an effort to make the model more efficient They essentially bumped everyone's reasoning down by 1... so if you were running Sol Extra High, you now have to set it to Max to get the same effort So we basically don't have Max reasoning anymore, how do you feel about these changes? 🤔

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