Satish Nakul

Your SIP returned 12%. M3 money supply also grew at 12%. After tax and real inflation on healthcare and education, you kept almost none of it. 20 years of RBI data. Free PDF in the post below

@NDTVProfitIndia rbis forward book near $100B means they're defending the rupee with dollars they haven't spent yet. their model assumes crude at 70, brent is at 108. that gap eventually shows up in actual reserves

RBI Ramps Up Key Tool To Defend Falling Rupee ndtvprofit.com/economy/rbi-ra…

@_prashantnair @CNBCTV18News they spent 12B defending 85, now 18-20B defending 92. each floor costs more reserves and each one breaks because M3 keeps expanding on the other side. the defense is finite, the printing isnt

@connectgurmeet last time india issued resurgent india bonds the rupee was at 42, now its 92. FPI outflows arent the fundamental issue, M3 going 15x is. no bond series fixes a depreciating asset

India is being reactive on Rupee moves & not addressing fundamental issue - “persistent FPI outflows” We need to be proactive as global capital may also shift base partially from Middle East to other Asian hubs Launch Resurgent India bond kind of series ,reduce controls & capital gains. Big window of opportunity for us !!

Rupee @ new lows ! Reports earlier suggested that the RBI may have spent $18-20 billion in a single week to absorb the USD demand.. Relentless demand ! #IranWar‌ #Trump #Nifty #BankNifty @CNBCTV18News

@Balanced_2016 @MarcellusInvest rupee hit 68 in aug 2013. and if it was flat while inflation ran 5% above, REER was overvalued not stable. capital inflows were subsidizing it, taper tantrum collected the bill

@SatishNakul @MarcellusInvest What???? It remained at around 45..dont grand anything. Just look up data. As for others learn your basics about REER.

We’ve all seen the carnage in IT stock prices. This structural deceleration is doing more than re-rating a sector—it is triggering a "Sagar Manthan" in the Indian economy. For 30 years, $300B in IT services exports "jacked up" our currency. While a strong Rupee felt like nice, it actually made Indian manufacturing uncompetitive against the devalued currencies of China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. The Great Churn is reversing this trend: The Prop Fails: As the importance of IT services reduces, the artificial support holding up the Rupee is weakening. The Edge: A depreciating Rupee finally neutralizes the 30-year cost disadvantage faced by Indian factories. The Result: India is pivoting from a services-led model to a manufacturing export powerhouse. The falling Rupee isn't a crisis; it’s the long-awaited catalyst for India’s next structural growth phase. Watch the full breakdown with Saurabh and Nandita: youtu.be/e0mIHDYUKM4 #IndianEconomy #Manufacturing #Investing #SaurabhMukherjea #StockMarket #Forex #SagarManthan #MarcellusPodcast

@Balanced_2016 @MarcellusInvest 45 to 60 isnt flat. but even granting your framing, gold in rupees went nearly 5x that same decade. capital inflows were masking the differential, gold was pricing what the exchange rate wasn't showing

@SatishNakul @MarcellusInvest Currency fell???? Rupee was flat in the first decade versus usd when the inflation differential was about 5 percent. Do you comprehend what this is??

@balajis you dont have to be a refugee for your currency to fail you. the indian rupee lost 96% since independence, 1.4 billion people need the same insurance you're describing, they just dont know it because the debasement is slow enough to be invisible

We should build more crypto tools for refugees and stateless people. Because there may unfortunately be many more refugees and stateless people…and from all social classes. Ukrainians leaving the war. Californians leaving the state. Gulf workers leaving the missiles. Doesn’t necessarily mean huge design changes. If you build convenient consumer tools for millions that work in peacetime, then they’ll often be robust enough to work in wartime. Because crypto is wartime mode, but for the Internet. Public blockchains were created to resist datacenter attacks, hacks, and network blocks. It’s simply enlightened self-interest to build scalable, reliable tools. For example: Signal works for poor people in poor countries in poor conditions, so it’ll likely work for you. Stablecoins are actually getting to this level of ubiquity in crypto, and already making a real dent globally, including the new gold-backed varieties. But we can do more.

@ramanmann1974 @mkvenu1 @Devinder_Sharma @SpeakerSandhwan @Pawankhera @Tractor2twitr_P @waglenikhil retail topping the list isnt surprising when CPI says 3% but healthcare education and housing run at 10-12%. the middle class borrowed to cover the gap between official inflation and real inflation. the write-off is just the receipt

Loan write off (2025): ~Retail=₹45,404 crores ~Services=38,438 crores ~Industry=₹37,716 crores ~MSME=28,587 crores ~Agriculture=₹21,882 crores In a first, retail was the top category of loan write offs in 2025; personal loan/ credit card defaults show the stress in economy

@sumitkbehal M3 money supply also grew at roughly 12% over the same period. after 12.5% LTCG tax your SIP didnt even keep pace with the money printer. the 12% isnt indias growth story, its indias money supply story

Nifty has delivered 12% CAGR since 1947 and it will continue delivering this return backed by India's growth story

@prasannavishy this model tops out at crude 90-100 but brent is already at 103 and the indian basket is at 143. RBI spent $6.1 billion last week defending 92, the goldilocks era isnt at risk, its already behind us

How the global energy shock threatens India’s Goldilocks era India’s macro sweet spot is at risk with crude rising from $70 to $90–100/barrel could shave GDP growth from 7.6% to 6.2–6.6%, push inflation from 2.1% to 5.1%, and widen CAD from 1.1% to 2.2% of GDP. The rupee could weaken from ₹91.5 to ₹98.5/$, compounding imported inflation. Translation: higher oil = slower growth, higher inflation, weaker currency. Add pressure on OMC margins, subsidies and fiscal math and India’s “Goldilocks” phase quickly turns into a tightrope walk.

@_KiranRajput whether its LTCG or valuation the bigger drag is the currency. sensex does 12% but the rupee depreciates 3-4% a year. so FIIs see 8-9% in dollar terms. US treasuries pay 4-5% risk free. the tax is a rounding error next to what the rupee takes

Many fund managers and 'experts' are talking nonsense when they claim FIIs are selling just because Indian markets are 'expensive.' The truth is in the timeline: they’ve been selling since 2018, the moment the government introduced LTCG and hiked STT. Look at the data—in 2021 and 2022 alone, they dumped ₹3.5 lakh crore. This isn't a valuation issue; it's a policy issue.

@deepakshenoy @CapitalmindMF the fall is measured in rupees but the rupee itself dropped ~10% over the same stretch. nifty could recover to its old high and youd still have less purchasing power than when it started falling. the drawdown is deeper than the screen shows

Assuming a bear market is -20% from the top, we're a while away and even at the bottom last year, it wasn't that bad. More than half of the past 10% falls didn't result in a bear market, but this is one of the closest shaves we've had :) By @CapitalmindMF

@Reematendulkar CLSA is asking about AI deflation in contracts but the deflation that already happened is the rupee. IT bills in dollars and reports in rupees , rupee going from 83 to 92 adds ~10% to topline before a single new deal is signed. Nobody on the call seems to be asking about that

CLSA ON INDIAN IT In our discussions with TCS, INFY, HCL and Wipro around preview commentary ahead of the silent period, we find no evidence of increased deflation in renewed contracts due to the latest AI tools from Anthropic and OpenAI since their launch A few companies flagged a slight delay in decision making by clients due to the launch of the latest AI tools to explore their true potential and due to the ensuing Middle East (ME) crisi On the ME crisis, direct revenue exposure for all four companies is in low single digits but the broader macro impact will depend on the duration of the crisis  #nifty #clsa @CNBCTV18News @citic_clsa @nimeshscnbc

India's forex reserves dropped $11.68 billion in one week. RBI spent $6.1 billion defending the rupee at 92. The remaining $5.4 billion was valuation loss. BofA had forecast reserves at $745 billion by March. Actual: $716 billion. Thats a $28 billion miss and the month isnt over yet

@datta_arvind credit outpacing deposits by 2.5% means the gap has to come from somewhere. RBI just did 1 lakh crore in OMOs in 2 weeks, thats where

As per the latest RBI data, banking credit growth rose 14.5% YoY Deposit growth for the same period was higher by 12% YoY.

@deepakshenoy gold has beaten sensex after tax for 20 years, its not suddenly doing better. a drawdown just makes the gap harder to look away from

Why does it look so bad right now when the market had dropped much more - 18% - last year around the same time? I think the answer is: this time the world is doing better than us. Gold is, Silver is, and therefore it feels lousy.

@riteshmjn every example in this piece is a government confiscating gold and the conclusion is... own more gold? India's Gold Control Act ran 22 years. I think the piece makes the case for an asset that cant be confiscated, not for the one that keeps getting confiscated

@MarcellusInvest FMCG growth collapsing from 10% to 3% while M3 money supply grew 12% a year for 20 years. The middle class isnt spending less because they want to. Real inflation on healthcare, education and housing ate the budget before FMCG got a turn

The data shows a system under pressure: 📉 FMCG growth has collapsed from 10% to 3%. 🎓 Graduate unemployment is at 29% (9x higher than for illiterates). 💸 9 million Indians have lost $35B+ in speculative trading. (2/4)

Marcellus’ new book is coming out soon: "Breakpoint: The Crisis of the Middle Class and the Future of Work." Why does this matter? Because the "Middle Class Mutiny" has begun. 🧵 (1/4)

Your SIP returned 12%. M3 money supply also grew at 12%. After tax and real inflation on healthcare and education, you kept almost none of it. 20 years of RBI data. Free PDF in the post below