Penjohn Publius

Can’t wait for @SantiagoAuFund and @TheMichaelEvery to educate us on the 5D chess moves behind this particular threa…sorry master plan

۰۱:۲۶/ ۱۶ فروردین ارزیابی راهبردی: اگر ایران تا فردا نشانه معتبری از تجدید نظر ترامپ در حمله به زیرساخت های ایران دریافت نکند، به نحو پیش دستانه، بازگشت ناپذیر و بسیار گسترده زیرساخت برق و تولید نفت سعودی و رژیم اسراییل را هدف قرار خواهد داد. ایران به منظور اجتناب از ورود به ‘جنگ بازگشت ناپذیر زیرساختی’ از و ‘اوکراین سازی منطقه’ تاکنون از اعمال این گزینه خودداری کرده اما زمان این خویشتن داری تا 24 ساعت آینده به پایان خواهد رسید.

A fourth center of global power. @ProfessorPape

@Ostrov_A Completely out of nowhere!!

🚨 As you’re going about your day, hundreds of thousand of Israelis are racing to bomb shelter, after Iran just fired another barrage of missiles, including in Tel Aviv.

Canads is by Far one of the best country in the world 🇨🇦 🍁 Canada is a top-tier global producer of potash (1st), uranium (2nd), and aluminum (3rd), which are critical for the global energy transition. Canada currently ranks 2nd globally for ease of doing business, making it a top destination for corporate headquarters and investment. Canada remains a global leader in the export of gold, motor vehicle parts, and agricultural products (specifically barley and soybeans). Canada holds 7% of the world's renewable freshwater supply and possesses roughly 20% of the world’s total freshwater when including the Great Lakes.  Canada consistently ranks as having some of the cleanest air quality among G7 nations. Recent 2026 data shows that while some urban pollutants fluctuated, most indicators remain significantly lower than 1990 levels. Canada ranks 12th out of 165 countries for overall human freedom (economic and personal). Ranked 14th in the world, Canada is one of the safest and most stable countries on the planet Canada currently ranks 21st, maintaining a high standard for journalistic independence and the protection of free speech. Canada ranks 3rd globally in overall reputation and is the #1 most trusted nation for tolerance and inclusivity (Global Soft Power Index 2026). For over two decades, Canada has led the OECD in the percentage of adults (ages 25–64) with post-secondary education. It is ranked 3rd in the world for being politically stable, well-governed, and respecting the rule of law. In 2026, Condé Nast Traveller named Canada among the top 29 most beautiful countries in the world, specifically highlighting spots like Torngat Mountains National Park. 17 Canadian cities were recognized among the world’s most livable urban centers this year. Top-ranking cities include Ottawa, Victoria, Vancouver, and Halifax, which were noted for their balance of safety, healthcare, and standard of living. Five Canadian cities (Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa, and Calgary) rank in the Top 100 Best Cities globally to live, visit, and invest in. Canada is the place to be 🇨🇦

You’re using me a strawman but you know you’re not fooling anyone, you’ve called Iran a pawn in great power games, dismissed at the very start of the war anyone questioning strategic aims articulated as uneducated twitter bots whilst acclaiming the wisdom of the planners in the pentagon and have directly stated your utter inability to view the world free from the current hegemonic order.

Nobody I know of has claimed they are a bunch of geniuses. Peoples inability to discuss something without picking one extreme or the other will never cease to amaze me.

@AbdllahAlneaimi Delusional to think nothing will change and everything revert to the status quo that existed before the war

في السنوات الأخيرة، عشنا حياةً مثاليةً جدًا في الإمارات وكل دول الخليج؛ حياة تصل إلى حد الكمال... رخاء وازدهار، وأمن، وتنمية شاملة... نسافر، ونركب أفضل السيارات، ونسكن أفخم البيوت، ونأكل في أحسن المطاعم، ونتسوق في أحدث وأكبر المولات. الآن نمر بظروفٍ استثنائية، خصمت قليلًا من هذا الروقان، وهو ما أعتبره أنا شخصيًا تذكير بالنعمة، وابتلاء يدفعنا لاسترجاع أيامنا الحلوة، والتفكير في نعم الله علينا بشكلٍ مختلف. وما هي إلا أيام، أو أسابيع قليلة، وستعود بعدها الحياة أجمل مما كانت، مع تجربةٍ أعمق للحياة، وفهمٍ أوسع، بإذن الواحد الأحد. ما يدفعني للتفاؤل، أن دولنا خيرة، وحكامها أهل مروءة وإحسان، وشعوبها طيبة لم تبطر النعمة. الحمدلله… الحمدلله… الحمدلله.

@SantiagoAuFund Ok boss we get it, they’re all a bunch of geniuses who have thought of every possible scenario. By that logic, our history books replete with examples of imperial overreach and catastrophic mistakes are all fictional right

If u are 5 pages deep into a piece you are planning to post on twitter detailing why the US & USD are about to fail bc the Pentagon doesn't realize Iran has mountains & air craft carriers are obsolete, just stop. You are not unique, not edgy & not contrarian. You are mainstream.

Facing the total loss of the US position in the gulf, the president is under considerable pressure to escalate to a ground incursion. It is going to be an even bigger disaster, generating even more pressure for further escalation which will result in a full-blown catastrophe. It’s just really, really hard to see how the US can avoid defeat here. No course of action is promising in the least. Recent updates suggest that the interdiction war has failed. Hormuz cannot be retaken without it. Further decapitation is not going to work. The limited-objective ground incursion options, if undertaken, would almost certainly result in disaster. The US simply does not have the armed force strength — even with a draft — of occupying Iran. The United States has been truly defeated by the newly-minted great power.

@TVNewsNow With geniuses like this on your side, one doesn’t need enemies

🚨 NEW: Fox’s Marc Thiessen has a GENIUS PLAN to fund the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz: “I think what President Trump ought to do is have a Hormuz Transit Tariff.” “Instead of Iran charging $2M per vessel going through the Strait, the U.S. will charge a $2M escort fee for every vessel — which is about $9B a month or $100B in revenue.” “We will waive that fee for any country that participates in the coalition to open up the Strait.” “That will open it and reward the good guys that are helping us and punish those staying on the sidelines,” @marcthiessen tells @BretBaier.

Yes overall he has many good points but ultimately a massive blind spot (like his friend Brent Johnson) in favor of US hegemony. He is subtle about it but it’s very much evident, and he clearly gave zero agency to the actual resistance of the Iranians. I look forward to his mea culpa

@SiddanthCanada @TheMichaelEvery I very much value Every’s framework, but I urge you to draw your own conclusions from it because his evaluation of the relative strength of the participants is, well, understandably speculative. 1/2

It *could* be, as I’ve been arguing for weeks… which is why escalation to try to deescalate on US terms is still the most logical path ahead. If that then works, 2026 opens up all kinds of ‘reverse perestroika’ possibilities (and necessities).

Prominent Gaza doctor Hussam Abu Safia who has been subjected to “severe torture” and has suffered extreme weight loss and starvation in Israeli prisons. His son, Ilyas Abu Safia, spoke to AJ+ about the conditions he is enduring.

One should not read too much into Zarif’s article. It in no way represents a consensual view within the current Iranian leadership. As I told @BeckyCNN today, the very fact that he had to turn to Foreign Affairs to outline what #Iran should do to end the war is, in itself, a telling indication of his position within the current political landscape. There is indeed a faction within the broader political elite that supports the views expressed in the article, but these are not the actors currently shaping strategic decision-making.

@JavierBlas Why does he have a perma smug face on

“… Energy prices are going down […] you don’t have to believe me, look at the futures market…” — White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett

A great Indian history resource out there is the YT channel of Vinay Lal. His work puts a damper on the idea that academic historians haven't done enough public outreach. In some videos, he perceptively explains the many parallels betw colonial Britain & contemporary America:

Today's Anne Frank is a Lebanese Muslim girl hiding in the attic of a Lebanese Christian family, terrified of Israeli Jewish soldiers finding her and killing her.

Hussam Abu Safieh is one of the Palestinian doctors (among 95 other doctors) that will be killed by the “Israeli death penalty for hostages.” Do not let them murder him. Repost this.

Israel is explicitly warning Christian and Druze residents in southern Lebanon not to hide Muslim residents among them as their forces advance. Not a peep from Sheryl Sandberg.

The aggression against Pasteur Institute of Iran—a century-old pillar of global health & member of International Pasteur Network—is a direct assault on international health security. This violates Geneva Conventions & IHL principles. We call on @WHO @ICRC & global health bodies to condemn this attack, assess damages & support reconstruction. #PasteurInstituteIran #HealthSecurity #GenevaConventions #InternationalLaw #GlobalHealth #WHO #ICRC #HumanitarianLaw #Iran #ReconstructHealth #PasteurNetwork