Stephen Kalil🇨🇦🇺🇸

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Stephen Kalil🇨🇦🇺🇸

Stephen Kalil🇨🇦🇺🇸

@StephenKalil

Muhammad Ali: "Me,We." Previous life on Bay & Wall St. Retired young. Not a fan of tribalism. Atheist. Wife & I, car-less empty nesters in Downtown Vancouver

#Vancouver British Columbia Katılım Kasım 2010
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Stephen Kalil🇨🇦🇺🇸
Stephen Kalil🇨🇦🇺🇸@StephenKalil·
What to possibly expect in the next 4 years from @realdonaldTump. He'll either save #America, bringing the rest of the world to its knees economically, or vice-versa. Unlike #China, who view deal making as a win-win/non zero sum game, he seems to view global trade as #uspoli win/everyone else lose/zero sum competition. It's Global Hegemony or bust for #America. #com #cdnpoli #Energy #cdnecon #BRICS #China #us10y $US #Russia #OPEC #uspoli #MAGA
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Qasem Al-Ali
Qasem Al-Ali@AlaliQasem·
Goldman Sachs just showed you the 3 scenarios. 📊 6 weeks disruption (baseline): 📍 Spike to $120 → crashes back to $80 10 weeks, no infrastructure damage: 📍 Spike to $140 → stays at $95+ 10 weeks, WITH production scarring: 📍 Spike to $160 → NEVER comes back down below $100 We are already at week 4. ‘Unlikely the two sides will negotiate an agreement at all’ Which scenario are YOU pricing in? 👀🛢️”
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Stephen Kalil🇨🇦🇺🇸 retweetledi
Policy Tensor
Policy Tensor@policytensor·
They’re gonna keep the Hormuz weapon even if they trade away the toll booth for sanctions relief. The harsh truth is that, bc the West has insisted on might makes right, they have the right to do it.
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86

Buried in Iran’s five-point counterproposal to Trump’s 15-point peace plan is the single most consequential sentence of the entire war. Iran’s fifth ceasefire condition, via Press TV citing a senior political-security official: “Iran’s exercise of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is and will remain Iran’s natural and legal right, and it constitutes a guarantee for the implementation of the other party’s commitments, and must be recognized.” Read that again slowly. Iran is not asking for sanctions relief. It is not asking for reconstruction funds. It is demanding that the international community formally recognize Iranian sovereignty over the waterway through which one-fifth of the world’s oil, one-fifth of its LNG, and one-third of its helium must transit. If any version of this condition survives into a ceasefire, the IRGC toll regime at Hormuz becomes permanent. Not as an ad hoc wartime measure. As an internationally recognized sovereign right. Iran’s parliament is already drafting the legislation. MP Mohammadreza Rezaei Kouchi told Iranian media: “We provide its security, and it is natural that ships and oil tankers should pay such fees.” The bill is in the Civil Affairs Committee. Bloomberg reported it could be finalized within a week. Iran has signed but never ratified UNCLOS. Its 1993 domestic law requires prior authorization for warships and hazardous cargo transiting the strait. Some legal scholars characterize Iran as a “persistent objector” to the transit passage regime. The US maintains transit passage is customary international law. The legal question is unresolved. The physical question is not: Iran controls the northern shore and is enforcing a selective corridor at the point of a gun. GCC Secretary General al-Budaiwi called it “an aggression and a violation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea” on March 26. He is correct on the law. He may be irrelevant on the outcome. The Suez precedent: Nasser nationalized in 1956. Reopened under Egyptian control in 1957. Excluded British pounds and French francs from the toll. The Suez Canal Authority has collected tolls in its chosen currencies for nearly seven decades. Crisis lasted months. Architecture lasted forever. Trump’s energy strike deadline is April 6. If the toll survives the war, the dollar loses its first chokepoint. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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Stephen Kalil🇨🇦🇺🇸 retweetledi
Furkan Gözükara
Furkan Gözükara@FurkanGozukara·
Absolute disaster for the Pentagon. Iranian missiles just wiped out multiple US refueling aircraft at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia and struck the main US logistics hub in Kuwait. American forces are literally scrambling into reinforced bunkers. The US is defenseless.
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Stephen Kalil🇨🇦🇺🇸 retweetledi
Kathleen Tyson
Kathleen Tyson@Kathleen_Tyson_·
@USronaldcarter The troops were mustered for 6 amphibious transports, an invasion fleet. That is a very important detail. The troops were an imminent threat to Iran.
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Stephen Kalil🇨🇦🇺🇸
State of the U.S. economy now.👇 Issue wrt U.S/global economy from my perspective: If the goal of the US oligarchs driving the war is/ was to crush China by controlling oil flow from the Gulf, and I believe it is/was, then it's failed-to date. So does their calculus & or tactics change? If they can't control the chess game-crippling China by controlling oil flow, then topple the board/global economy with $200/boe? Live with the domestic economic pain--worth it to see if China can pick up the chess pieces? #AmericaFirst #MAGA #oilprices #oil #oott #LNG #com #cdnpoli
Stephen Kalil🇨🇦🇺🇸 tweet mediaStephen Kalil🇨🇦🇺🇸 tweet media
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Sophia
Sophia@les_politiques·
Iran is hurting the US and the West where it matters, it is squeezing the markets. And the markets will win, they always win. Therefore, Iran will win. It already won. Israel and the US went in with no plan for the long term and no plan where Iran might win. Every military operation against Iran now is pure blind vengeance and pure destruction. But the more vengeance and destruction, the more it will hurt the aggressor because while Iran will rebuild, the aggressor will have depleted its military, economic and moral capital, which are difficult to rebuild in the near future.
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Alon Mizrahi
Alon Mizrahi@alon_mizrahi·
So basically Iran launched a preemptive surprise attack against an intended surprise attack. This will sure boost the morale of American troops 10,000 kilometers from home
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Kim Dotcom
Kim Dotcom@KimDotcom·
Trump's going nuts. It's his last Presidency. It's the end of his life. He got away with his crimes. He's openly threatening war crimes against Iran. He doesn't care if you die in a nuclear winter. History will record it's him who ended humanity. His legacy. You should be afraid.
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Stephen Kalil🇨🇦🇺🇸 retweetledi
عبدالعزيز المقبل
Fertilizers * Sulphur * Urea * Ammonia Volumes Which countries import from the Middle East.
عبدالعزيز المقبل tweet media
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Kim Dotcom
Kim Dotcom@KimDotcom·
Iran, watch
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Stephen Kalil🇨🇦🇺🇸 retweetledi
Stephen Kalil🇨🇦🇺🇸 retweetledi
🅰pocalypsis 🅰pocalypseos 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🅉
Larry Johnson: The Russians and Chinese are recognizing we’re at a transition point in history now, much like what happened at the end of World War II. Those institutions that came into being, including the United Nations—most people don’t realize that the League of Nations had continued to exist through World War II; it was just irrelevant. Well, guess what? The United Nations is no longer relevant because the Trump administration has declared that it doesn’t respect international law. There’s no such thing as international law. I think Russia and China are looking actually toward the future, where we’re going to need a new infrastructure, a new economic infrastructure where the United States can’t hold countries hostage. A new international law infrastructure that’s actually going to have some teeth to it, to prevent nuclear-powered countries like the United States and Israel from attacking a country that doesn’t have nuclear weapons.
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Alireza Salimi
Alireza Salimi@AR_Salimii·
I deeply regret my vote. You offered no condolences for the 168 Iranian schoolchildren slaughtered by U.S. and Israeli missiles, yet you were quick to mourn 2 people killed in the UAE. You reward child-killers and sanction the victims of aggression. @MarkJCarney, you are not the leader this peace-loving, humanitarian country deserves.
Mark Carney@MarkJCarney

Canada shares its condolences with the UAE following the latest Iranian attack that took the lives of two civilians in Abu Dhabi.    We strongly condemn Iran’s unprovoked attacks on the UAE and across the region, and reiterate the importance of opening secure access through the Strait of Hormuz. Canada supports efforts to safeguard international shipping and ensure freedom of navigation.

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Kathleen Tyson
Kathleen Tyson@Kathleen_Tyson_·
“You see, my friend, most nations prepare for war. Iran prepares for endurance. It doesn’t ask, “How do we defeat our enemy?” It asks, “How do we remain when they have exhausted themselves trying?” And that, that is a far more terrifying strategy.”
Kelechi DonPido@kmbiamnozie

The most difficult subject in War School was Iran, you know why? No one, even my Professors who were former intelligence operatives couldn’t tell Irans military strategy. Militarily, Iran did what no country has done. The decentralization of it Forces, a well organized a formidable units with its own brain around defense. You can embed the CIA and Mossad as much as you want in Iran, but there’s a place where everything stops. So let me give you a little lesson about Iran, It is Not a country. Not really. More like a living labyrinth, designed not to win wars the way empires do but to outlive them. You see, in the grand theaters of war, where men like Napoleon Bonaparte chased glory and where doctrine is etched into polished marble halls, Iran chose a different scripture entirely. They studied collapse. They watched the fate of men like Saddam Hussein, a towering army, centralized, proud and decapitated in weeks. They watched Libya. They watched Afghanistan. And somewhere in the ashes of those fallen regimes, Iran asked a far more dangerous question: “What survives when the head is cut off?” And so, they removed the head. No single brain. No single nerve center. Instead, a thousand smaller minds, each capable of thought, of violence, of continuation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is not merely a military force. It is a philosophy with weapons. A hydra. You don’t defeat it, you inconvenience it. Cut one arm, another recalibrates. Silence one commander, ten more adjust without ceremony, without pause. No dramatic funerals in the command chain. No operational paralysis. Just continuity. And then there’s the illusion, the one that keeps intelligence officers awake at night. You can penetrate a system, yes. The Central Intelligence Agency has. The Mossad certainly has. They’ve turned assets, intercepted signals, even reached into places once thought untouchable. But Iran doesn’t build for secrecy alone. It builds for betrayal. Every layer watched by another. Every agent suspected before he proves loyal. Every corridor lined not just with doors but with mirrors. You think you’re inside the system until you realize the system anticipated you long before you arrived. Now, about the dead. Spies, operatives, assets: men and women who stepped into that maze believing tradecraft could save them. Some vanished quietly. Others, not so quietly. Iran has made examples of those it accuses of espionage, broadcasting confessions, staging executions, sending messages carved not in ink but in consequence. But here’s the truth no agency will print: The real number? The real cost? Buried. Because in that world, numbers are not statistics, they’re vulnerabilities. You see, my friend, most nations prepare for war. Iran prepares for endurance. It doesn’t ask, “How do we defeat our enemy?” It asks, “How do we remain when they have exhausted themselves trying?” And that, that is a far more terrifying strategy. Because history has a peculiar habit of remembering not the strongest, but the last one standing.

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Policy Tensor
Policy Tensor@policytensor·
The US is strangling Cuba. We call this coercion or compellence. We call the instrument being used the economic weapon. We think of the torture of a poor, defenseless country as reflecting American power. What the US is doing to Cuba, Iran is doing to the whole world. Pretending that this is not Iranian power is the sort of thing that sore losers do. We should recognize that Hormuz reflects Iranian power, just as Cuba reflects American power. A world governed by straight power relations is a simple world. Things are very clear. There is only one test, that of the battlefield. And Iran has defeated the US as is evident from the fact that the US does not have the military means to retake Hormuz. This strategic defeat has consequences. Iran will henceforth make its power felt and be a coordinate state in the system, in accordance with the new rules-based order which has only one rule: might makes right.
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