Arian

902 posts

Arian

Arian

@SwanDeviation

I think, therefore I am

Katılım Kasım 2021
296 Takip Edilen71 Takipçiler
Arian
Arian@SwanDeviation·
@ZeeContrarian1 🎯Few but larger bets in quality trades over 100s of small trades where neither the win or loss have a material impact aka waste of time
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Z@ZeeContrarian1·
Go Big or Stay Average A few days ago I wrote about limiting beliefs. This is the year in my career where I actually become wealthy, where the returns are so insane that even for me, it’s hard to fully accept them. And because of that, I catch myself hedging, selling covered calls, trying to “manage” the upside. But if there’s one thing you can learn from Leopold, the 24-year-old kid who became a billionaire last year, and something I’m still learning myself, it’s this: When you have a high-conviction position that you understand better than anyone else, you go all in and you leave it alone. You let it run. 1% to 3% positions won’t change your life. You don’t put your best ideas at 2%, 3%, or 5% of your portfolio. If your conviction is real, you put at least 10% into it. Otherwise it’s almost a waste of time. But this only comes after proving to yourself, again and again, that your process works. That the logic you developed, the pattern recognition unique to you, consistently finds winners. That’s why it has to be your way. When I buy a stock I deeply understand, I now put 20% into that position, look at $ZIM, $URGN, $AMZN look at $STAA. In a new position I started this week I already put 30% of my portfolio, more on that on Monday. People who copy me put 1%, 2%, maybe 5%. And that’s the difference: Only when you’ve done the work yourself do you have the conviction to go big. As long as you genuinely believe your research is exceptional, and you’ve proven to yourself over and over again that you can identify winners better than the crowd, then let the position reach its full potential. Stop capping it with hedges. Stop selling away the upside with covered calls. Stop doing things that protect you emotionally but limit what the position can ultimately become.
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Arian
Arian@SwanDeviation·
@citrini What kind of please is this? Brother please or please of course I agree?
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unusual_whales
unusual_whales@unusual_whales·
A CBS News poll finds that over 70% of Americans say they are having difficulty affording essentials like food, housing, and health care.
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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
TRUMP: NOW IRAN JUST HAS TO SAY WE GIVE UP
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Arian
Arian@SwanDeviation·
@DeItaone What the actual fuck
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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
TRUMP: WILL BE RELEASING AS MUCH AS WE CAN ON UFOS IN NEAR FUTURE
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Z
Z@ZeeContrarian1·
Another $28,000 in two days, once again on $QQQ put spreads. I know a lot of you use them as well, so my recommendation is this: it’s a pity to lose a nice profit. Plus, $VIX seems to fall on down days, which is a bullish sign for the equity markets. So once again, when you have nice profits, just take them. I’ll wait until after tech earnings for the next $QQQ ratio spread opportunity. Overall, it was around a $55,000 gain in one week on three ratio spreads that didn’t go as well as I had hoped.
Z tweet media
Z@ZeeContrarian1

$QQQ Ratio Spreads - How I See It Took profit on the $QQQ spread I wrote about last week (opened for ~0, closed at 1.55 - about $27,000 in cash). The logic: it’s already a large premium to risk if markets don’t pull back. Replaced it with the spread below, which I opened for approximately $0.10, including a 660 put (higher strike than the previous 655), and sold some calls within the structure. Max profit occurs if $QQQ falls ~3.5% from here by the end of the week. It’s hard for me to imagine a much bigger drawdown by Friday with how weak the $VIX has been acting. My risk is if $QQQ moves more than ~2% higher after tech earnings. I’m okay with that -if we squeeze higher, I’d likely give back the ~$27,000 I already made anyway, which I would have lost if I hadn’t closed the previous put spread. But on the downside, this new structure pays significantly better than the previous one after the recent move up in $QQQ.

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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
UAE ENERGY MINISTER SAYS UAE HAS BEEN A MEMBER OF OPEC AND OPEC PLUS FOR A LONG TIME AND OUR FUTURE WE SEE THAT THE WORLD WILL DEMAND AND NEED MORE ENERGY
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Arian
Arian@SwanDeviation·
@dampedspring Same, I’m just happy to have participated
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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
IRANIANS PUT FORWARD NEW PROPOSAL TO US, SOURCE SAYS Iran has reportedly sent a new proposal to the U.S. that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but only after an end to the war and guarantees it will not resume, according to sources and regional reports. Under the plan, broader talks on the nuclear program and maritime navigation would come later. The White House is reviewing the proposal as President Donald Trump prepares to meet his national security team. Axios reports Iran is insisting on ending the conflict before any nuclear negotiations, amid signs of internal divisions in Tehran over concessions. The White House says Trump “holds the cards” and will only accept a deal that prevents Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
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Andy Constan
Andy Constan@dampedspring·
Me taking one look at Hyper-liquid SPX down 50bp. I'm max bearish but trading down on Hyperliquid based on some weekend Iran news is BULLISH.
Andy Constan tweet media
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Edwin Lu
Edwin Lu@EdwinLu25417787·
@sannbet Today dump was glorious though. I was able to catch it before it happened
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Arian
Arian@SwanDeviation·
@dampedspring I followed your trade yesterday and got out with 80% gains at market open….had I waited alittle longer I’d be at 3X….was afraid of potential “resqueeze”
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Andy Constan
Andy Constan@dampedspring·
@SwanDeviation My trade was executed to short at 584. I am up a ton. For now. The specifics of the trade are not that interesting and so tiny as to be inconsequential
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Arian
Arian@SwanDeviation·
@JanJekielek Canada going down the same path?
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Jan Jekielek
Jan Jekielek@JanJekielek·
The push for euthanasia, euphemistically called "medical assistance in dying," is the best example of this alarming trend. Get your copy of "Killed to Order" today. Together, let's save some lives and help end this crime against humanity: amazon.com/Killed-Order-H…
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Jan Jekielek
Jan Jekielek@JanJekielek·
Right now, wealthy travelers around the world can fly to hospitals in China to get organ transplants within weeks. These organs don't come from willing donors, but are instead forcibly taken from innocent religious prisoners like the Falun Gong and the Uyghurs. They have been tissue-typed and blood-typed in prisons and camps throughout China—and then are killed to order. It was a pleasure and an honor to speak recently at @Hillsdale about what's going on in China today. Hillsdale is an incredible institution that is teaching students the importance of truth, goodness, beauty and the dignity of every human being, created in the image of God. Utilitarian bioethics—the perverse push for the "greatest good for the greatest number"—is directly undercutting these ideals. My new book "Killed to Order" breaks down the dangers of utilitarian bioethics which has reached the extreme in China, and is now spreading to the West.
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sanskarimata
sanskarimata@sanskarimata·
@MIT1991_2 @dampedspring I couldn’t find anything with good risk reward. Then when this eventually corrects, I can see it going to 370 and bouncing. Yesterday the 400 put for 1st May was around 370. Would love to do p flies but it’s so wide .
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Andy Constan
Andy Constan@dampedspring·
Gamma squeezes end when the company fills all the demand. Should be a this week imho. $CAR
Andy Constan tweet media
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