T

@FilmThePoliceLA Still a problem but it’s definitely better than under the previous mayor.

Did Bass meet this goal?

@speechboy71 People keep saying this. But his base of @FoxNews watchers will never even know about it.

I'll be very curious to see the polling numbers on Trump's slush fund. This has the feel of a story that will break through with normies.

@PabloDBCapital Who cares? Unless you're a short term trader, earnings will take care of it.

This $APP price action is making me sick. We need something from management. An announcement, a presser, a fireside chat, an open market purchase, something that shows the willingness to fight against the shorts and hedgies. Running a business has 2 sides: the business aspect AND investor sentiment/narrative. You have to execute on both.

@dcg1114 But the gays can get married now!

The murder rate is substantially lower than it was 30 years ago. The abortion rate is substantially lower than it was 30 years - almost all of the decline was before then end of Roe. Teen pregnancy is substantially lower than it was. America is a less violent place by almost every metric than 30 years ago.

@bavedikian That's what happens when you elect a buffoon who singlehandedly enacts tariffs and starts unnecessary wars.

I was talking to the CEO of a large food service company. He believes 2026 will set the record for most restaurant closures in a single year.

@fivepointscap High oil prices in SEA may be a massive headwind, no? They’re rationing gas in Vietnam.

I think Sea Limited $SE is about to start a huge run. - Extremely strong Q1 earnings - Very low valuation - Druckenmiller adding 156k shares and making it a top 10 position - Oil prices eventually coming down - Investment cycle peaking and starting to slow down - Concerns over TikTok Shop quieted by Shopee’s 45% revenue growth - Shopee margin ramp starting EPS will explode over the next 18 months while the multiple expands due to a shift in sentiment. The last time Sea went on a big run, it rose 450% from January 2024 to September 2025. It may not be 450%, but the conditions are here for a massive rally.

@nectarbuffs @MB_Hogan Just making up numbers here

@MB_Hogan My old target from end of 2024 was: 2026 $300 2028 $1,000 2020 $3,000 New target is: 2026 $400 2028 $1,400 2030 $4,000 I make the assumption there will be a 10 for 1 split in 2028.

$NBIS: My NEW Updated Nebius ARR Valuation Model and 12-Month PRICE TARGET of $317 per share 🔥 A BACK OF THE NAPKIN MODEL: On the Q1 2026 call, Nebius reiterated ARR guidance of $7–$9B by end of 2026 for the AI Cloud business. H1 2027 ARR ESTIMATE: Management also raised 2026 CapEx guidance to $20–$25B and noted they expect to bring more compute online in the first half of 2027 than they did in all of 2026. If the compute added in 2026 supports the midpoint ~$8B end-2026 ARR, then adding even more in 1H 2027 could reasonably support more than another ~$8B incremental ARR. To be conservative, assume the same amount: this gets us to approximately $16B ARR by end of H1 2027. GROWTH RATE: Growth rate and ARR Multiple: Achieving the 2026 midpoint of ~$8B ARR would represent massive 700% YoY growth (Q1 2026 AI Cloud ARR already hit $1.92B). The implied trajectory above keeps growth well over 100% into 2027. BEAR MARKET ARR MULTIPLE: In the 2022 bear market trough, no major cloud/SaaS names traded below ~6x ARR. In this hyper-growth AI context, even under conservative/bearish macro assumptions, a 6x ARR multiple is extremely conservative. With inflation costs rising due to price of oil (possibly short term) and rising probability of reduction in guided for rate cuts or even the possibility of a rate hike, I will assume for my base case a BEAR MARKET multiple of 6X ARR So 6x $16B ARR equals a $96B market cap. SHARES OUTSTANDING: Nebius reported ~253.9 million shares outstanding as of Q1 2026. The company raised ~$4.34B in convertible senior notes with an initial conversion price of ~$183/share, which equates to an additional ~23.7 million shares if fully converted. For the guided 2026 CapEx increase of an ADDITIONAL $5B, account for the existing 25M share ATM program. At a share price over $200, this would raise ~$5B+. Total estimated fully diluted shares outstanding then rises to approximately ~302.6 million. $96B market cap divided by ~302.6M shares yields ~$317 per share. My BASE CASE 12-month Nebius PRICE TARGET is now ~$317 per share. (Note that if macro conditions turn more favorable, my base case my need to be adjusted significantly HIGHER) NFA. Always do your own research!

@BillAckman Inverse @BillAckman. Wrong on just about everything. Look at his fealty to MAGA. Zero critical thinking skills.

To be clear, our sale of $GOOG was not a bet against the company. We are very bullish long term on Alphabet. But at current valuations and in light of our finite capital base, we used $GOOG as a source of funds for $MSFT.

@fivepointscap @JonahLupton Would be more interested in $LULU if I were looking in that area

@TR_LA2 @JonahLupton Yeah I mean 8x earnings is cheap but it’s really not that cheap for a business with three straight years of declining revenue

$BRK.B Trying to make sense of Berkshire’s moves in Q1 Sold: - Visa - Mastercard - Amazon - United Health - Pool Corp - Domino’s Pizza - Trimmed Chevron Bought: - Added significantly to Google - Added to New York Times - New position in Macy’s - New position in Delta What I find strange about it is not the moves themselves (although some of them are odd). It’s the change of mind so shortly after starting new positions. What changed about Pool Corp, United Health, and Domino’s since they bought? Especially with all the cash they have, why be selling anything that isn’t grossly overvalued. I don’t really care that they sold Visa and Mastercard. Selling Amazon feels like a mistake, but maybe they really liked the retail business and don’t understand the cloud business well enough. I really like the Google add. It’s now a core holding and I’m really happy to see that Berkshire is embracing more tech companies. They chose arguably the best company in the world so kudos to them. Overall I think it’s fine but some strange decisions in Abel’s first quarter as CEO

@JonahLupton @fivepointscap Truly bizarre. Dying brand. Maybe it’s cheap enough.

@fivepointscap Zero chance I’d ever sell Amazon to buy Macy’s 🤣

@StockMarketNerd I’d rather we didn’t have an arsonist

@TR_LA2 Would you prefer that the fire continue to blaze? I would prefer that it be put out

So many companies stand to benefit from U.S./China tariffs easing. Anyone with any kind of physical supply chain reliance on that nation is very happy right now. Great news for markets. Great news for inflation. Great news for the economy. Great news.

@ecommerceshares That no one knows anything

Ackman dumped his $GOOG. Buffett/Abel and Chris Hohn massively loaded up on $GOOG. What can you learn from this?

@howardlindzon I thought more of you.

The democrats will never get my vote as they exist today

@GovernorVA Not good enough. Stand up for gods sake.

The Supreme Court of the United States has now joined the Supreme Court of Virginia in choosing to nullify an election and the votes of more than three million Virginians. These Virginians made their voices heard — casting their ballots in good faith to push back against a President who said he’s “entitled” to more seats in Congress before voters go to the polls. As Governor, I will make sure voters know when and how to cast their votes this year. Because our votes are how we choose the representation we deserve.

@TheLongInvest And the sold all their $AMZN, while buying $M. Huh?

$UNH During Q1 was between $250-$290 This is where Berkshire sold its entire position ON THE VERY LAST DAY OF Q1, $UNH was at $260 and then ran to $401 Meaning. Berkshire sold between $250-$290, missing the ENTIRE +55% gain in 6 weeks. Not a good start for Greg in Berkshire

@JonahLupton @StockMKTNewz What’s the point of having any position less than 1 percent (for them, not me).

@StockMKTNewz $M is only a $5B company… if you like it just buy the whole thing 😂

JUST IN: Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B just bought these new stocks during Q1 Delta $DAL Macy's $M This is the first quarter Berkshire is reporting without Warren Buffett in charge Here is every stock they owned as of the end of Q1

@oguzerkan Except that Ackman is kind of a buffoon

Turns out Ackman rolled $GOOG proceeds into $MSFT. This is a great way to play this market: - Buy a mega-cap below its mean P/E - Exit when it goes above mean - Buy another mega-cap below mean P/E Their businesses are so strong that mean reversion is almost inevitable.

@ChrisRMcGuire So buy $NVDA is what you're saying...

This is a complete own goal. It would triple the amount of AI computing power that China adds next year - before taking into account illegal smuggling. And it would divert scarce AI compute resources away from U.S. firms. This will help China close the gap with the U.S. in AI.

@StealthQE4 And no more immigrant labor to build homes and infrastructure

Let’s be honest: The Tariffs were a disaster. Triggered global anger. Iran war is a mess. No manufacturing has come back to the US. Rates are rising China is laughing at us during these trade talks Embarrassing