
Team Bulk Carriers
5.2K posts

Team Bulk Carriers
@TeamBulkCarrier
Dry Bulk Analyst



$BB +14.11% on the day. The bullish technicals were highlighted to members during pre-market.



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The bottom line is the Iran War is "stuck." No War (shooting) No Peace No Shipping No Crude Oil, LNG, Fertilizer, and/or Helium And it will stay "stuck" until circumstances change. The most likely change ... * The US/Israel restart kinetic attacks with the goal of forcing the Iranians to their position * The Iranians hold the stalemate long enough to drive up crude oil prices to intolerable levels for the developed world to get the US/Israelis to accept their positions. I guess a third option is that the blockade imposes unbearable economic pain on the Iranians to force them to accept the US positions. I say "guess" because the thinking now is this might take a long time, which plays into the Iranian point above about holding the stalemate to drive up crude oil prices to intolerable levels. As we are starting to understand, the Iranian regime has a high tolerance for economic pain, and the larger population cannot overthrow them. So, the maximum pain point, the so-called "tank top" of their crude oil storage facilities getting full, might be several weeks away.













Tankers increasingly out of position for a Hormuz reopening to ramp quickly. This should start to support the belly of the oil curve that had been pricing an acute but brief reopening glut as all of the loaded tankers in the gulf leave at once closely followed by rapid storage draws and loadings onto waiting ships. Now a reopening is likely to be fully constrained by how many tankers are in the area and how quickly record tanker rates can bring tankers back to the gulf to load. The uncertain timing assuredly means a period of extreme inefficiency where swathes of tanker reverse planned courses and an entire month where oil in transit drops sharply. The initial impulse of loaded tankers leaving the gulf barely keeps refiners off tank bottoms and supply chain chaos thereafter keeps refiners fighting each other for the few cargoes that can load from tankers in position… I’m thinking at least a month before enough ballasting tankers arrive to the gulf to meet desired export programs. Meanwhile oil field production restarts will need to be throttled until there is enough tanker offtake capacity. Months before things are “Normal”


Friday's oil market crash has been used again to close a whole bunch of May 26 WTI futures short positions To give you an idea, average OI that goes into settlement is ~85k contracts, and we are already well below that when there are still 2 days till the end of May26 trading




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