PermaTechBull

@FirstSquawk Everyone trying to unload their bags on the US market 😂

SAMSUNG IS REPORTEDLY IN INITIAL TALKS ABOUT A POSSIBLE SHARE SALE IN THE US.

@MichaelPBento Not sure why everyone is so obsessed with crude prices. Look at refined products…gasoline / Diesel is up another 5%

WTI is ripping, now back above $80, we’ll reach $87 by the end of the week at this pace.

@alphaticaio Again bullish bullish bullish 100% Beat rate 😂

JPM reports tomorrow morning before the bell. Q2 earnings season starts here. 3/6 on our quality signal. BULLISH on our disclosure signal. The July reporting period has a 100% beat rate over the last five years. The stress cycle from First Republic and Basel III has completely dissipated from the filings. Analyst targets jumped $10 in the last two weeks. The street is positioning for a beat. Street EPS: $5.59 Street Revenue: $51.09B Alphatica Estimates: EPS: $6.05 Revenue: $52.0B OUR CALL: BEAT ✅ JPM has beaten in 5 out of 5 July reports with an average surprise of +10.1%. The last five: +4.1%, +9.5%, +9.3%, +9.5%, +18.3%. This is JPM's strongest reporting period, ranked #1 by stock reaction with +313.6% cumulative returns across the dataset. Last quarter beat by 7.8%. We are sizing at $6.05, an 8.2% beat consistent with the July quarter pattern. OUR FOUR SIGNALS: Earnings Quality: 3/6 NEUTRAL. $57B in net income. $182.4B in net revenue. Equity growing every year to $362.4B. Three BULLISH flags for profitability, operating trends, and capital position. Three NEUTRAL flags: VA nearly doubled from $249M to $476M in FY2025 (the largest single-year build despite record profits), bank OCF structurally unscoreable, and VA direction concerning despite very low absolute level at 2.7%. Disclosure Signal: BULLISH. Quarterly tone improving. Both annual and quarterly filings confirm the same trajectory: stabilizing, improving, confident. This is one of the cleanest BULLISH disclosure reads in our database. Prediction Model: BEAT. Five consecutive July beats with 100% rate. 78.5% lifetime beat rate across 121 quarters. 16 of last 20 quarters have beaten EPS consensus. Revenue has beaten in 15 of 20. The July quarter has never missed in our dataset. Earnings Risk Signal: +/-2.8% NEUTRAL. IV spread at +0.82, essentially flat. No directional lean from the options market. EVRP at 17.3, the lowest of any name we have covered this season. Expected move +/-2.8%. Avg PMIE over 3 years is 2.54%. JPM barely moves on earnings. Last 4 quarter stock moves: -1%, -4%, -2%, -1%. All negative. The stock has gone down after earnings four straight quarters regardless of the beat. ANALYST DATA: Analyst targets jumped $10 from $345 to $357 in the last two weeks. That is a rapid pre-earnings repositioning. Target vs current price implies 6.6% upside. The rating trajectory peaked at 1.43 in March (most bullish in 12 months) and has faded to 1.52. Three analysts dropped coverage. The street was most bullish in February and March and has been fading since. Mild yellow flag. Q2 is expected to be the revenue peak of the year at $51.1B. Q3 and Q4 consensus both step down to $49.1B and $49.2B. If JPM beats on revenue, the question becomes the NII guide and whether Q3-Q4 holds at $49B. Analysts expect a dividend step-up from $1.52 to $1.65 in Q3. If JPM announces it alongside tomorrow's earnings, it is a management confidence signal. Watch for it in the release. THE SETUP: IB fees consensus at $2.82B. Equities at $3.89B. FICC at $6.22B. The capital markets environment has been favorable. The EPS estimate curve is flat across Q2-Q4, meaning a beat does not require extraordinary conditions. NII consensus at $25.62B is the number that drives the stock. Pre-earnings price action has been negative. JPM has underperformed the S&P 500 since Q1 (+7.5% vs +9.5%). Dampened expectations going into a 100% beat rate quarter is a positive setup for the print. But four straight negative stock reactions after earnings is the pattern that needs to break. $51.09B is the street. $5.59 is the bar. 5 out of 5 is the streak. Two green circles and two yellow. The July quarter has never missed. The stock has gone down four straight times anyway. Tomorrow morning we find out if the beat rate or the stock reaction pattern wins. Not Investment Advice. $JPM $QQQ $SPY

@Jim_Santee @alphaticaio Not yet. They are working on it.

@TechPerma @alphaticaio I dont know if they have a paid service.. However im with you on accounts that do!!!

Oil has surged 9% on the Strait of Hormuz blockade. FinTwit is panicking. Read the research before you position. We built the $100 Oil Stress Timer after the last Hormuz spike. The framework hasn't changed. The price isn't the signal. The duration is. Every supply-driven oil spike in our dataset mean-reverted before the 30-day threshold. The last one: $107 to $91 in one week. The timer never triggered. If oil is above $100 in 30 days, the framework shifts. Until then, this is the same pattern the data has shown every time. Full research below. 👇 $SPY $QQQ $USO

@Jim_Santee @alphaticaio Otherwise he would just trade with his money right? 😂

@Jim_Santee @alphaticaio He’s taking short term dark pool data and acting like it’s the holy grail of long term price discovery. It isn’t. The real goal is to build hype, turn you into a customer, and make money from you

@alphaticaio Were were not bullish, we only provide data is What we will hear during the drawdown. Bookmark this

@alphaticaio Another bullish post. 🤣.

Bears all covering at the same time. lol VWAP Vel: 15m:+4.2pts 30m:+6.4pts $SPY $QQQ

@cOsMicTriG @alphaticaio Im short RUT for the Last Week. Those accounts just piss me Off

@TechPerma @alphaticaio PermaTechBull mad that 789 didn’t hit by 9:35am today.

@alphaticaio You were Talking about a 789 target a few days ago 😂

@TechPerma We did not guide anyone anywhere. We provide the data. That's what we do.

@DeItaone The fact that houthis are now involved is the worst outcome possible

SAUDI-LED COALITION IN YEMEN SAYS DEALT WITH BALLISTIC MISSILES LAUNCHED BY HOUTHIS TOWARDS SOUTHERN REGION

@CaptainRoyen @BillPilgrim18 @mfwarder Have you ever looked at Thungela Resources?

@BillPilgrim18 @mfwarder $BTU $CNR $HCC $HCC is met pure play so no upside to thermal tailwinds mentioned here but lowest cost provider in the Met sector

Welp, thats a wrap for the return to 80% production in 2 months plan. Can anyone say..... COOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLL Say it louder for @mfwarder in the back😂

@UnprecentedPrez @StealthQE4 It doesnt really matter for US NG, which is driven by local storage numbers/ US weather forcasts. NG is driven by local dynamics most of the time

@TechPerma @StealthQE4 It still effectively contributes to global supply

Why is oil down? Tf Bombs are dropping all over the place over there.

@Cooking4Company @DarioCpx Going long oil because some missles are flying is the most lazy, retail money loosing strategy ever. Good luck

@DarioCpx It’s cute that they’re trying to shake our longs while ballistic missiles are being shot around the Middle East.

Honest question: if crude oil prices aren't being manipulated, how would you explain this happening every single day exactly at the same time during US overnight most illiquid trading hours?

@Cooking4Company @DarioCpx Why don’t you understand there’s a huge supply glut right now? 400M barrels have been released from reserves, plus 50M barrels of trapped oil moved through Hormuz after the deal. There’s no refining capacity to absorb it all. You may see spikes, but they’re being sold into.

@DarioCpx Why don’t you understand there’s a huge supply glut right now? 400M barrels have been released from reserves, plus 50M barrels of trapped oil moved through Hormuz after the deal. There’s no refining capacity to absorb it all. You may see spikes, but they’re being sold into.

@thuhkang What if China attacks Taiwan? SPX 10000 possible?

All Trump has to do is bomb Iran a few more times and $SPX will be at ATH's

@FirstSquawk Master Manipulators

IRAN HATCHED FRESH PLOT TO ASSASSINATE TRUMP, ISRAEL INFORMED U.S. - WSJ

@FirstSquawk Hahaha I love that strategy.

U.S. CENTCOM: IRANIAN MEDIA CLAIMS THAT HORMUZ PASSAGE IS RESTRICTED TO TEHRAN-SPECIFIED ROUTES ARE FALSE; IRAN DOES NOT CONTROL THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ - AJA BREAKING