BioHunter

@WarrenPies @ed_fin @OilCfd Goal may be to actually test the bluff…if any

Should cc @ed_fin and @OilCfd

My understanding is that globally coordinated escorts can only get us up to 30% of previous flows…anyone have more optimistic numbers? Combined with bypass pipes, clearly a help but there are constraints.

"it is not possible for two sides to both win a war. But it is absolutely possible for both sides to lose; mutual ruin is an option." acoup.blog/2026/03/25/mis…

I have been an economists for a very long time. I have always been a little surprised by how some people will talk about recession as a necessary reset or a “cleans.” There is this “let them eat cake” kind of mentality that emerges that somehow a recession is like a fast for a day and healthy. Recessions are painful, especially when accompanied by inflation. I became an economist as a fluke - it was the only class open when I registered & it sounded interesting. I loved the math and the intuitive study of collective human behavior. It gave me an understanding for the train wreck of an economy I experienced growing up in the modest suburbs of Detroit as a kid. My best friend’s dad died of cancer when I we were in high school. She stopped bringing lunch to school - there was no money for food. Her family dug up their backyard to plant a garden & put food on the table. Her yard was bigger than the postage stamp of my own, but the ground was toxic. Many of her siblings died of cancer very young. I still remember the smell of baked bread - it was the only bread they could afford. My mom, who was on her own tight budget, gave me money to buy her lunch each day. Stagflation and recession were brutal. The scarring effects of all those years ago linger. Families broke down & vicious cycles of poverty emerged in towns that became known as the Rust Belt for their rusting factories. Recessions are ugly, unpredictable and leave a scar. Those accompanied by inflation are worse. The economy is not a single body that can be fit from a “cleans,” as I have so often heard in my career. It is a complex system that has increasingly seen inequality worsen in the wake of recessions. Income inequality hit a low as measured by the Gini coefficient in 1979 in the US. We have been seeing a rise in inequality ever since, with more sidelined for long periods after recessions, with perhaps the brief surge in hiring we saw in the wake of the pandemic. That is over. We are already flirting with a payroll recession, which is showing up as losses in payroll employment. I would like to believe that rate cuts could cure what ails us, but I fear what we are enduring is systemic. Lower interest rates cannot spur hiring with firms dealing with so much uncertainty. That means the Fed should focus more on inflation. I hate to think of what a recession to derail the inflation we are enduring would look like, although I think about it a lot. It is not pretty. The economy is about people’s lives and livelihoods. It is what you deal with when you walk in your front door if you have one to walk through. It is worrying about feeding and sheltering your kids. It is about all the choices we make every day. It is a living organism that does not do better when pain is broader. I will never say a recession is good. Recessions are hard. We may have to suffer one to derail inflation - I hope not but worry that may end up being the case. That is a horrible place to be. Food for thought. I have seen talking heads talk about a recession with a cavalier attitude. I find that hard to witness. The tails risks of recessions are large. They hurt people. Break bread not ties. Empathy is a gift to few share. Time to fill our cups with it.

@matthewherper @Clarksterh to be fair, prior FDA already showing the ADCOM' the door.

I've covered most of the big controversies the FDA has faced over the past 25 years: Vioxx, drug-coated stents, and Aduhelm all spring to mind. In all of these cases, the FDA's advisory panel system, in which the agency calls together a group of outside experts to advise it, either helped it decide on an intelligent course of action or would have had leadership not been to arrogant to listen to the panel. One of the dumbest things the current FDA is doing is killing this system. The agency held 14 advisory committee meetings in 2025, down from 38 in 2024 and 29 in 2023. The number of advisory committee meetings related to drugs decreased by 72% last year. @LizzyLaw_ has more on what's wrong with this picture. statnews.com/2026/03/09/fda…

$xene , better than my “best case”

I anticipate that the long-term outcome will be quite straightforward. We won’t initiate regime change, as that’s a matter for the people. We won’t dictate the form of governance. However, we will retain complete control over the airspace. The go forward “long term objective is to prevent the recurrence of the rebuilding of a military, weapons systems, navy…You unload a new radar stations we destroy it, you start to build a navy ship, we destroy it, you fly a military plane we destroy it, you build a drone plant we destroy it. Given USA space, drone, Air Force and munitions tech this would be a pretty easy and low cost solution. This was impossible from a technology perspective until today, not sure why it’s not discussed more at the off ramp. You do your thing we do ours, but what you won’t do is X

@JonahLupton Directionally I agree with much of the above, but in reality there are.some other concerns. “Iheezo growth in Q1 would be minimal” - yet Q4 was 60% growth, so Managment channel stuffed to hit q4 guidance. That hurts street cred

This is a post about $HROW (Harrow Health) and why I think it's become one of the most mispriced and undervalued stocks in the market. To own a stock like $HROW you need a long term investment thesis and time horizon because there will be big rips and big dips, need to accept that volatility or you'll panic sell on the lows. $HROW reported earnings this week and the stock got crushed, it was down -28% yesterday because they missed sell side estimates for CY2026... but maybe those estimates were too high to begin with and the stock was overly/unfairly punished? $HROW reported Q4 revenues of $89.1M, up +33% YoY and +24% QoQ with Q4 ebitda of $24.2M, which implies +27.1% ebitda margins. Sequential growth at $HROW is less important because their revenues are very lumpy throughout the year... much better to focus on YoY numbers. For full year 2025, $HROW did $272.3M of revenues, up +36% YoY and $61.9M of ebitda, up +53.6% YoY. This means ebitda margins for CY2025 were 22.7% FWIW, $HROW Q4 revenues were slightly ahead of estimates, so the sell off was mainly caused by their CY2026 guidance. $HROW said CY2026 revenues would be $350-365M with $80-100M of ebitda. The problem is that the sell side was looking for $385M of revenues and $130M of ebitda. Perhaps the sell side was being too aggressive with their estimates? If you crunch the numbers... at the midpoint... $HROW is guiding to +31.2% revenue growth and +45.4% ebitda growth... while looking for +25.2% ebitda margins (for full year)... up from +22.7% in CY2025 Using the midpoints, coming into today, $HROW was trading at less than 18x NTM ebitda. If you listened to the earnings call, management said multiple times they are being conservative so they can beat and raise. In their shareholder letter, $HROW says "we are providing guidance differently than in the past, perhaps with a more conservative approach because several elements of our 2026 strategy are highly discounted in this model" Also in the shareholder letter, $HROW says "these (guidance) ranges reflect expectations we believe are achievable given current visibility, while still allowing for potentially meaningful upside as our team executes our strategy". $HROW is a ophthalmology pharma business with multiple drugs already commercialized with several new drugs and more in the pipeline (ie G-MELT). Their three main products are: Vevye (dry eye disease) Iheezo (ocular anesthetic) Triesence (ocular inflammation) Vevye revenues were up 62% YoY in Q4 and 216% YoY for full year CY2205. Management said they are doubling the Vevye salesforce over the next few months. Iheezo revenues were up 57% YoY in Q4 and 65% YoY for CY2025. Triesence is the newest drug in their portfolio, only doing $5.1M in Q4 however 47% of that revenue came from new accounts. I believe $HROW will exceed the top end of their current guidance range by at least 5% which means revenues would be growing in CY2026 by +41% YoY and ebitda would be growing in CY2026 by +69% YoY. So, you can buy $HROW today, under $40 per share, trading at 18.3x NTM ev/ebitda (using the midpoint of their guidance) or 15.7x NTM ev/ebitda if I'm right and the beat the top end of their guidance range by 5% (they might end up beating it by 10-15%). Very hard to find another company growing revs by 30-40% and ebitda by 45-70% while trading at 15-18x NTM ebitda... all while management is saying the guidance is conservative. Management even said something on the call along the lines of "there are some announcements coming that will make shareholders very satisfied this year" (I'm paraphrasing). Besides looking cheap relative to the fundamentals / guidance, the company is increasing their sales team and getting more coverage / reimbursement from the PBMs like CVS Caremark which could lead to even more upside to the numbers for CY2026. Despite the big drop in the stock price, 4 analysts came out today with commentary/reports... all of whom reiterated their buy ratings while adjusting their price targets. - Lake Street went from $70 to $60 - Cantor went from $94 to $91 - Ladenburg went from $66 to $62 - HC Wainwright went from $69 to $70 Between these 4 analysts, the average price target is now $70.75 which is +83.2% above yesterday's closing price. I think it's fair to say the analysts disagree with post-earnings price action and remain very bullish on $HROW (as do I). NFA. DYOR. **We do own $HROW at @FirstWaveFund Here is the Q4 shareholder letter if you want to learn more about $HROW... harrow.com/static-files/c…

Biotech— when uncertainty rises, risk capital will flow somewhere. The reality is risk capital is not good at sitting on the sidelines. Short term, sure, but it always rotates to where the trader/investor can get the dopamine!

1 in 7 revenue dollars turned into operating cashflow for $hrow. salesforce expanding for a product that continues to have 9 refills per patient. easiest add ever at $42

@semodough FYI the 4th one exited

$OCUL been around 5+years - during that time about 5 people imho really knew the EYE/retinal / Ophthalmology science/trial/regs/etc what I would call more less expert unfortunately 3 of them can no longer post because of compliance/other reasons/ now there 50+ at least expressing there opinions that data is this & that -I AM NOT saying that’s bad thing at all - interaction both ways is good& makes biotwitter what it is - conference ongoing & Monday more RETINAL DOCS will weigh in can we at least see what they say & how they use it in real world & I have yet to see ONE RETINAL practicing Doctor say this does not have place - if you know anyone that has wAMD NUMBER one wish/request or plea is LESS injections - that’s all patients want period less injections

@D4RW1NEXE @SecWar @DoWCTO To be honest that decision should never be left to a CEO vs the voting public’s, American laws and constitution as interpreted by SCOTUS. Correct decision by POTUS even if I agree with Anthropic’s stated goal.

The critical question moving forward is no longer just about Anthropic, but how the U.S. will navigate the rapid transition toward sovereign AI, and whether other major tech firms will now be forced to make a binary choice between their internal governance models and federal compliance.

This week, Anthropic delivered a master class in arrogance and betrayal as well as a textbook case of how not to do business with the United States Government or the Pentagon. Our position has never wavered and will never waver: the Department of War must have full, unrestricted access to Anthropic’s models for every LAWFUL purpose in defense of the Republic. Instead, @AnthropicAI and its CEO @DarioAmodei, have chosen duplicity. Cloaked in the sanctimonious rhetoric of “effective altruism,” they have attempted to strong-arm the United States military into submission - a cowardly act of corporate virtue-signaling that places Silicon Valley ideology above American lives. The Terms of Service of Anthropic’s defective altruism will never outweigh the safety, the readiness, or the lives of American troops on the battlefield. Their true objective is unmistakable: to seize veto power over the operational decisions of the United States military. That is unacceptable. As President Trump stated on Truth Social, the Commander-in-Chief and the American people alone will determine the destiny of our armed forces, not unelected tech executives. Anthropic’s stance is fundamentally incompatible with American principles. Their relationship with the United States Armed Forces and the Federal Government has therefore been permanently altered. In conjunction with the President's directive for the Federal Government to cease all use of Anthropic's technology, I am directing the Department of War to designate Anthropic a Supply-Chain Risk to National Security. Effective immediately, no contractor, supplier, or partner that does business with the United States military may conduct any commercial activity with Anthropic. Anthropic will continue to provide the Department of War its services for a period of no more than six months to allow for a seamless transition to a better and more patriotic service. America’s warfighters will never be held hostage by the ideological whims of Big Tech. This decision is final.

@pharmafather123 @Biohazard3737 You mean a 4 year bear market that saw the $XBI go from 172 to 62, and like 4 mid 60’s bottoms! Those were by far the most challenging years since dot com bust

@Biohazard3737 Hasn’t your fund been around for two of the greatest bull runs in biotech history? Not being critical but that has to have been a factor in your success right?

@James__Council $ALDX Sounds like CRL coming. They should be in labeling vs cross finger No position

$ALDX Oppenheimer Fireside Chat w CEO

Just for fun I had the following interaction with Grok: MVI: what are the odds that $HROW revenue exceeds $500M in 2026? Grok: Very low — roughly 2–5% at best, based on current analyst consensus and company trajectory... Even the highest Wall Street estimate falls $41 million short of $500M. No major analyst or research note is modeling anywhere close to $500M for 2026... That would require 84% growth in 2026 (from the $275M 2025 midpoint) — far above the 35–45% growth rates Harrow has delivered or guided in recent years, and well above the 42% consensus... Bottom line: Hitting $500M in 2026 would be a massive positive surprise — well beyond every current forecast and the company’s visible commercial plans. The odds are in the low single digits (2–5%) unless Harrow delivers multiple major upside catalysts (e.g., earlier-than-expected pipeline wins, acquisition, or explosive market share gains) that no one is currently pricing in. MVI: NRx for Vevye as reported by Bloomberg has increased each week so far in 2026, from an average of 4k/wk at the end of 2025 to 5.3k per week in the second week of February. They have not yet deployed the newly hired sales reps, but the Vevye sales force is expected to double, from 50 now to 100 by memorial day. presumably this will drive further growth in NRx. Reconsider your answer in light of this information Grok: Updated assessment: The odds of HROW 2026 revenue exceeding $500M are now meaningfully higher — in the 15–25% range (up from my prior 2–5%)... Rough 2026 Build (Incorporating Your NRx Data)Vevye alone (biggest swing factor): Likely $85–100M in 2025 (based on Q3 run-rate of $22.6M + acceleration). With NRx already +25–32% annualized early, plus 2× territories and high refill rates (dry-eye is chronic), $200–280M in 2026 is realistic in a strong scenario. Some earlier bull cases (pre-this momentum) already modeled $300M+ for Vevye alone. IHEEZO + Triesence + other branded: Already growing fast (IHEEZO was $21.9M in Q3 2025); the new office TAM and double sales force add meaningful upside. Compounding/legacy: Stable-to-modestly growing base. Base case with your data + expansion → $420–470M total (55–70% growth). Bull case (strong execution, net pricing holds, continued NRx acceleration) → $500M+ is reachable. MVI: Management has said ASP for vevye will rise $20 to $40 over the course of this year because of the improved insurance coverage. Reconsider your answer assuming management is correct about this Grok: Updated assessment (incorporating management's ASP guidance for Vevye): The odds of Harrow (HROW) exceeding $500M in 2026 revenue rise further — now in the 25–40% range (up from 15–25% previously). This assumes management's comment on a $20–$40 ASP increase over the course of 2026 (tied to improved insurance coverage, formulary wins, and reduced net pricing pressure) plays out as stated. It's still not the consensus base case, but the combination of accelerating NRx trends, sales force doubling, and this explicit pricing upside creates a stronger bull path than before... Base case (consensus-like, modest ASP gain): $420–480M (still 55–75% growth from 2025 $272M midpoint). Bull case (full $20–$40 ASP realization + continued NRx acceleration + strong execution): Easily clears $500M, potentially $520–600M+... Why Odds Are Now 25–40%The ASP increase is management-guided and directly linked to the same coverage wins driving NRx/volume — it's not speculative. Early 2026 NRx streak (weekly increases) + reps ramping mid-year compounds the effect. Analysts' current high-end (~$459M) doesn't fully bake in the pricing upside or latest momentum; post-Q4 earnings (March), expect upward revisions. Risks remain: Ramp timing for new reps, any net pricing slippage elsewhere, no pipeline revenue yet. But if management is correct on ASP (and trends hold), $500M becomes a realistic "stretch but achievable" outcome... Q4 earnings + initial 2026 commentary on March 3 will be the next big update (analysts will almost certainly raise 2026 numbers then). Happy to revisit right after the call if you want. This setup is why the stock has been acting well lately — the commercial momentum is real. Keep crushing those deadlifts in the meantime!

🚨 BREAKING. John Fetterman says he stood up during President Trump’s State of the Union for Iryna Zarutska and Erika Kirk. He said, “Even Erika Kirk. Can’t we just be more kind to a WIDOW? How can’t we acknowledge that?” He also made it clear he clapped for: The family who lost the Ukrainian girl. The Venezuelan political prisoner. The veterans honored that night. And he added something that shouldn’t even be controversial: “I’ll always clap for things I agree with, like striking the Iranian sites. And if I don’t agree, I certainly won’t yell, scream and disrupt the whole thing.” That’s not partisan. That’s basic decency. You can disagree on policy. You can vote no. You can argue your case. But honoring victims, widows and veterans shouldn’t be a political stunt. Sometimes acting like a normal, respectful American really is that simple. 🇺🇸💯

@avidresearch Sell side has always been late Q1 or early Q2. My guess first 2 weeks April

$CYTK Completed enrollment in late Q1 of 2025. A 36-wk primary endpoint last subject visit would be around early December. A bit surprised they are guiding for Q2. Would think they could see Top line in March? “With respect to the ongoing clinical trial program for aficamten, the next major data milestone for us will be the readout of ACACIA-HCM, the pivotal Phase 3 trial in nHCM. We completed enrollment of the primary cohort, excluding Japan, in the first quarter of 2025, and we now expect to report the top line results from this cohort of ACACIA-HCM in the second quarter of 2026.”

$LRMR COUNT DOWN… Raise coming 4:01PM

@Dreesenkl Agreed

@TheBio_Hunter Why aren't the Republicans standing up for the pubescent girls in the Epstein Files? Why is the Trump admin withstanding pressure to release ALL the files, including the rape accusation of a 14-year-old girl, announced yesterday? I think a pedophile ring is much more important.

And here is lies the problem, lack of adults in the room, BOTH SIDES. Sad days for the country. Political points over just doing the right dam thing