Sawi

5.6K posts

Sawi

Sawi

@TheOnlySawi

trying to add value and perspective; while nobody ever responds to my posts and questions 😢

Miami Katılım Şubat 2010
312 Takip Edilen209 Takipçiler
GROK NSFW
GROK NSFW@BESTGROKNSFW·
Generated with @grok imagine Miki 20yo Tokyo 1980 Playboy 🇯🇵 🗼
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Sawi@TheOnlySawi·
@olsenbdnr @xai Duuuude! Your humor is beyond borderline 😜
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Olsen
Olsen@olsenbdnr·
Today was my last day at @xai. Pulled wild shit overhauling ads, war room days and all. Grateful as hell. Starting at SpaceXAI tomorrow, wish me luck 😂
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Sawi@TheOnlySawi·
Deeply apologizing to Cern Basher: I have blocked you temporarily. You are a smart guy, but currently I dont see any added value for me reading your posts.
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Sawi@TheOnlySawi·
I am so indefinetely appreciative of Brian @FutureAZA - you my friend have such a sharp strategic sense in your thinking. always directing the conversation to the track of what strategically matters.
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Sawi@TheOnlySawi·
@AriadneTweet @pbeisel Cern needed a new tooic since modelling robotaxi and optimus became a horse you cant ride every other week…since then it‘s merger phantasies
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phil beisel
phil beisel@pbeisel·
In general, I support a Tesla/SpaceX merger. If Elon want to do this, he should make his case to shareholders. I will listen!
Cern Basher@CernBasher

Tesla SHOULD NOT merge with SpaceXAI! The main reason given for Tesla not merging with SpaceXAI is goes something like: "Robotaxi hasn't ramped yet. Tesla stock could 5X. I'm here for the ramp. Optimus hasn't ramped either. Tesla could 10x. Let's give it a few years. I don't want to give my upside to SpaceXAI shareholders who just enjoyed a 4.4X since last summer." On its surface, this is a sound argument. I share these sentiments. Who could argue with that? I will. (I'm capable of holding two opposing thoughts in my mind at the same time). AI waits for no one First, have you seen how fast AI is moving? How durable is Tesla's Robotaxi moat? Honest answer: I believe it's strong, but we just don't know. How durable is Tesla's Optimus moat? Honest answer: I believe Tesla is extremely well positioned, but again, we just don't know. So no one has the luxury of waiting a few years to see how things play out in this space. The good news is that Elon has always been good at seeing the next steps ahead and positioning his companies well before most. Robotaxi Ramp Issues What happens to the Robotaxi ramp if Federal autonomous legislation doesn't come? What happens if Federal autonomous legislation is terrible? Or, perhaps the legislation is favorable, but think about what could happen to the Robotaxi ramp if Elon can't get enough chips to build millions Cybercabs or build tens/hundreds of millions of Optimi. Being chip constrained would materially harm the present value of Tesla if Robotaxi and Optimus can't scale beyond a certain point. Sure the cash flow pours in on the first 10 million Robotaxis, but investors would say: "We're going to give this company a low P/E because their growth is capped. They should have thought ahead and invested in semiconductor capacity. This business can't scale." What does Tesla need SpaceXAI for? 1) Capital - fresh off an IPO SpaceXAI will be flush with cash. 2) Starlink for low-cost global connectivity to cars, Semi and Optimus. 3) Grok is the interface for Robotaxi (so you can speak to the car). 4) Grok is the brain/voice of Optimus. 5) Orbital AI data centers are needed for training & inference for Robotaxi, Optimus and Digital Optimus. 6) Semiconductors from Terafab - a joint project between Tesla and SpaceX (Tesla can't self-fund this). 7) SpaceX's material science expertise. Sharing the Wealth with SpaceXAI Okay, so if Tesla isn't merged with SpaceXAI, how much will Tesla have to pay SpaceXAI for all of the above? - What portion of Robotaxi revenue goes to SpaceXAI? - What portion of Optimus revenue goes to SpaceXAI? Tesla may have to pay SpaceXAI a slice of the economics from Robotaxi and Optimus. That could mean SpaceXAI collects money every time: - a Robotaxi mile is driven, - an Optimus unit uses Grok, - a vehicle connects through Starlink, - Tesla uses orbital data centers, - or Tesla runs fleet-level inference. So Tesla shareholders may think they are avoiding dilution by rejecting a merger. But they may simply be choosing a different kind of dilution: permanent economic leakage. Instead of giving SpaceXAI shareholders ownership upfront, Tesla may end up paying SpaceXAI forever. Pick your poison carefully!

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Sawi@TheOnlySawi·
this is BS…turning your back on Tesla as a standalone bohemoth cuz you dunno how sustainable their moat is is Garry Level analysis…when they are not sustainable with mobility services, labour services and and chip fab then we have a whole different issue.
Cern Basher@CernBasher

Tesla SHOULD NOT merge with SpaceXAI! The main reason given for Tesla not merging with SpaceXAI is goes something like: "Robotaxi hasn't ramped yet. Tesla stock could 5X. I'm here for the ramp. Optimus hasn't ramped either. Tesla could 10x. Let's give it a few years. I don't want to give my upside to SpaceXAI shareholders who just enjoyed a 4.4X since last summer." On its surface, this is a sound argument. I share these sentiments. Who could argue with that? I will. (I'm capable of holding two opposing thoughts in my mind at the same time). AI waits for no one First, have you seen how fast AI is moving? How durable is Tesla's Robotaxi moat? Honest answer: I believe it's strong, but we just don't know. How durable is Tesla's Optimus moat? Honest answer: I believe Tesla is extremely well positioned, but again, we just don't know. So no one has the luxury of waiting a few years to see how things play out in this space. The good news is that Elon has always been good at seeing the next steps ahead and positioning his companies well before most. Robotaxi Ramp Issues What happens to the Robotaxi ramp if Federal autonomous legislation doesn't come? What happens if Federal autonomous legislation is terrible? Or, perhaps the legislation is favorable, but think about what could happen to the Robotaxi ramp if Elon can't get enough chips to build millions Cybercabs or build tens/hundreds of millions of Optimi. Being chip constrained would materially harm the present value of Tesla if Robotaxi and Optimus can't scale beyond a certain point. Sure the cash flow pours in on the first 10 million Robotaxis, but investors would say: "We're going to give this company a low P/E because their growth is capped. They should have thought ahead and invested in semiconductor capacity. This business can't scale." What does Tesla need SpaceXAI for? 1) Capital - fresh off an IPO SpaceXAI will be flush with cash. 2) Starlink for low-cost global connectivity to cars, Semi and Optimus. 3) Grok is the interface for Robotaxi (so you can speak to the car). 4) Grok is the brain/voice of Optimus. 5) Orbital AI data centers are needed for training & inference for Robotaxi, Optimus and Digital Optimus. 6) Semiconductors from Terafab - a joint project between Tesla and SpaceX (Tesla can't self-fund this). 7) SpaceX's material science expertise. Sharing the Wealth with SpaceXAI Okay, so if Tesla isn't merged with SpaceXAI, how much will Tesla have to pay SpaceXAI for all of the above? - What portion of Robotaxi revenue goes to SpaceXAI? - What portion of Optimus revenue goes to SpaceXAI? Tesla may have to pay SpaceXAI a slice of the economics from Robotaxi and Optimus. That could mean SpaceXAI collects money every time: - a Robotaxi mile is driven, - an Optimus unit uses Grok, - a vehicle connects through Starlink, - Tesla uses orbital data centers, - or Tesla runs fleet-level inference. So Tesla shareholders may think they are avoiding dilution by rejecting a merger. But they may simply be choosing a different kind of dilution: permanent economic leakage. Instead of giving SpaceXAI shareholders ownership upfront, Tesla may end up paying SpaceXAI forever. Pick your poison carefully!

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Sawi@TheOnlySawi·
@BenjaminDEKR I predict this is completely wrong. Extend the range of services as Compute-as-a-service provider makes sense. Slowing grok progress makes absolutely no sense. it makes perfect sense to keep grok evolving at rapid pace to force competitors into a fast acc hw need that u can solve
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Benjamin De Kraker
Benjamin De Kraker@BenjaminDEKR·
I predict that xAI (now SpaceXAI) will quickly move away from training their own in-house models, and Grok will stop competing to be a top-ranked LLM. They will focus on being a hardware/ compute provider and leave the competitive models to others (their customers.)
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Sawi@TheOnlySawi·
@nalinrajput23 Since it‘s not for sale (aka google‘s data) he might just as well create his own version, but xvideos is also taken as a brand
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Nalin
Nalin@nalinrajput23·
Unpopular opinion: Elon Musk should buy YouTube.
Nalin tweet mediaNalin tweet media
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Sawi@TheOnlySawi·
The next person creating a youtube on „spacex buys tesla“ will get blocked. Since 4-5 months they keep repeating the same thing and my ears are bleeding. I couldnt care less. If they want it they should send me a proxy and otherwise leave me alone.
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Sawi@TheOnlySawi·
@ElectricRaph This is exactly the same wording every regulator has given: wait for article 39 proceedings, trust tge process, nothing will happen on May 5 except RDW present the key aspects of their type approval and advise on when to expect tge full dossier. So no news
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Sawi@TheOnlySawi·
@Paddy_film Yup, exactly…they are not in any kind of rush, their secure jobs are on display so they‘ll take the time to digest the dossier thoroughly and assess if they‘d have any additional national requirements they‘d wish to be presented in order to proceed
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FuturePaddy
FuturePaddy@Paddy_film·
The last sentence is very important: "Once the dossier has been received, the KBA will examine the information provided and participate in the subsequent procedure in accordance with Article 39
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FuturePaddy
FuturePaddy@Paddy_film·
Just got a response from the BMV (German ministry of transportation) regarding my FSD Supervised inquiry. Here is the translation (by Grok): "In Germany, the Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) is generally responsible for issuing type approvals. The KBA is closely monitoring the approval process for Tesla’s assisted driving system FSD Supervised (Full Self-Driving Supervised) in the Netherlands. The Dutch type approval authority RDW is conducting this approval procedure. The KBA does not have detailed information on the RDW’s testing procedure or on the FSD Supervised system itself. Therefore, the further procedure must first be awaited in accordance with Article 39(4) of Regulation (EU) 2018/858. This procedure stipulates that the issuing type approval authority (in this case the RDW) sends a dossier to the EU Commission and the Member States. Pursuant to Article 39(2), this dossier contains information on the RDW’s testing procedure. Once the dossier has been received, the KBA will examine the information provided and participate in the subsequent procedure in accordance with Article 39." So I guess once the 5th of May happenes and the RDW presents their results to all participating countries, then they will all get such a dossier and therefore can check if they want to allow such a system before the EU vote at the end of June or if they don't want to bother with it and let the EU decide. @Tesla @teslaeurope @KRoelandschap @Rustavi @RealRusty @BMV #KBA #FSDSupervised @TSLA_inside_
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Sawi@TheOnlySawi·
@KRoelandschap I am not super confident they‘ll have a same-day vote. I believe they‘ll get the dossier shortly before the meeting, RDW will present their approach, methodology and key findings and will then propose a subsequent voting. Still countries say „we‘re waiting for the dossier atm“
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Kees Roelandschap
Kees Roelandschap@KRoelandschap·
FSD in Europe 🇪🇺 May the 5th be with you High likelihood that if it goes well other member states will start allowing FSD in 1-2 weeks after this session takes place PROVE ME WRONG
FuturePaddy@Paddy_film

Just got a response from the BMV (German ministry of transportation) regarding my FSD Supervised inquiry. Here is the translation (by Grok): "In Germany, the Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) is generally responsible for issuing type approvals. The KBA is closely monitoring the approval process for Tesla’s assisted driving system FSD Supervised (Full Self-Driving Supervised) in the Netherlands. The Dutch type approval authority RDW is conducting this approval procedure. The KBA does not have detailed information on the RDW’s testing procedure or on the FSD Supervised system itself. Therefore, the further procedure must first be awaited in accordance with Article 39(4) of Regulation (EU) 2018/858. This procedure stipulates that the issuing type approval authority (in this case the RDW) sends a dossier to the EU Commission and the Member States. Pursuant to Article 39(2), this dossier contains information on the RDW’s testing procedure. Once the dossier has been received, the KBA will examine the information provided and participate in the subsequent procedure in accordance with Article 39." So I guess once the 5th of May happenes and the RDW presents their results to all participating countries, then they will all get such a dossier and therefore can check if they want to allow such a system before the EU vote at the end of June or if they don't want to bother with it and let the EU decide. @Tesla @teslaeurope @KRoelandschap @Rustavi @RealRusty @BMV #KBA #FSDSupervised @TSLA_inside_

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Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş
Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş@profobektas·
GİRİT'DE Son 24 saatte M4 ve üzeri 17'den fazla sarsıntının olması, bölgedeki stresin tek bir fay segmentinde hapsolmadığını, çevre segmentleri tetiklediğini (stres transferi) kanıtlıyor. Bu hareketlilik, yay boyunca Rodos-Fethiye hattına doğru bir enerji göçü başlatabilir.
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JPSartre
JPSartre@JPSartre_NoExit·
Yes it's almost like he's a little preoccupied with the largest IPO in the history of the world... 😂 Don't think people grasp the vastness and intensity of this process. @squawksquare
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Sawi@TheOnlySawi·
@EmmaRincon @elonmusk I know I‘m throwing stones here in my glasshouse, BUT: you have 600k followers and consider yourself a keyuser (in spite of small tiktok influencers having between 1.5-3.5m followers?)
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Emmanuel Rincón
Emmanuel Rincón@EmmaRincon·
Hi @elonmusk, as soon as you acquired Twitter, I did everything I could to bring my audience from all platforms here, because it has always been my favorite and most-used social media platform. Now, in the face of constant negative changes, declining reach, and other issues, many people are doing the opposite and trying to move their audiences from X to other platforms. I hope you listen to what the platform’s key users are saying and that you can reconsider and fix X; it would be very sad if people ended up abandoning the platform en masse. Best, E!!!
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Whole Mars Catalog
Whole Mars Catalog@wholemars·
Please keep Farzad in your prayers today ❤️
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Sawi@TheOnlySawi·
@muskonomy So basicall it‘s 14bn buying out either one of them…so Elon buying the one and jeff buying the other…
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Muskonomy
Muskonomy@muskonomy·
NEWS: The FCC has rejected applications from SpaceX, Kepler, Sateliot, and AST SpaceMobile for key satellite radio bands. The agency ruled that the 1.6/2.4 GHz Big LEO band, the 2 GHz band, and parts of the L-band will remain exclusive to existing operators. These frequencies have long been used for traditional satellite phone services. Companies like Globalstar and Iridium have invested about $28 billion building networks in those bands. The FCC said opening the spectrum to new operators could cause harmful interference, especially as satellite-to-phone technology expands. As a result, SpaceX cannot use those specific frequencies for its independent Starlink direct-to-cell service. Importantly, SpaceX’s main U.S. direct-to-cell partnership with T-Mobile uses different spectrum and is not affected by this decision. Source: FCC Order DA 26-398.
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Sawi@TheOnlySawi·
@FutureAZA @JohannesKalpers I am wondering how many times a new device was released through this mechanism, has tesla just uncorked the bottle?
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FutureAzA
FutureAzA@FutureAZA·
A fascinating (if a bit unhelpful) update from Germany. @JohannesKalpers wrote to one of the regulating bodies and they actually wrote back. Their reply is included here:
Johannes Kalpers@JohannesKalpers

FSD in Germany Today i got an answer of the german Kraftfahrbundesamt @tpgoebel @herbertong @SawyerMerritt @wholemars @JOBhakdi @FutureAZA @pbeisel @CernBasher Dear Sir or Madam,Thank you for your inquiry, which has in the meantime been forwarded to the unit “Fundamental Technical Issues, Committees and International Cooperation” of Department 4 – Type Approval at the Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA).The responsibilities of the KBA’s Type Approval Department include the issuance of operating permits and type approvals for vehicles and vehicle parts in accordance with national and international legal regulations. The type approval confirms that a type of vehicle or vehicle part produced in large quantities complies with the statutory minimum standards for safety and environmental performance. These minimum standards are derived from legal acts of the European Union, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), and national regulations such as the Road Traffic Licensing Regulations (StVZO) and the Vehicle Parts Regulation (FzTV). Furthermore, the type approval authorities of the signatory states of the UNECE 1958 Agreement have committed themselves to the mutual recognition of type approvals granted on the basis of internationally harmonized legal acts.As a type approval authority, the KBA is not responsible for the approval of individual vehicles under national law pursuant to the StVZO, nor for the approval of subsequent modifications to vehicles that have already been registered and are in use on public roads.Note regarding your request:We greatly appreciate your commitment in the field of road safety and would like to inform you that the KBA is following the developments in the type approval procedure for Tesla’s FSD (Supervised) very closely. However, since this approval procedure falls entirely within the responsibility of the RDW and the KBA does not have detailed information on the RDW’s testing procedure or on the FSD (Supervised) system itself, we must first await the further procedure in accordance with Article 39(4) of Regulation (EU) 2018/858. According to this, the issuing type approval authority (in this case the RDW) must send a corresponding dossier containing the information pursuant to Article 39(2) to the EU Commission and the Member States. Upon receipt of the dossier, the KBA will actively participate in the further procedure in accordance with Article 39 and examine all information made available to it. This will enable the German side to adopt a position as soon as possible regarding the acceptance of the system in the competent European committee TCMV (Technical Committee on Motor Vehicles).Best regards, and in german: Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren, vielen Dank für Ihre Anfrage, die zwischenzeitlich an das Sachgebiet „Grundsatzfragen Technik, Gremien und internationale Zusammenarbeit“ der Abteilung 4 – Typgenehmigung des Kraftfahrt-Bundesamtes (KBA) weitergeleitet wurde. Zu den Aufgaben der Abteilung Typgenehmigung des KBA gehört die Erteilung von Betriebserlaubnissen und Typgenehmigungen für Fahrzeuge und Fahrzeugteile nach nationalen und internationalen Rechtsvorschriften. Mit der Typgenehmigung bestätigt die Genehmigungsbehörde, dass ein in größerer Anzahl hergestellter Typ gleichartiger Fahrzeuge oder Fahrzeugteile den gesetzlichen Mindeststandards an Sicherheit und Umweltverhalten entspricht. Diese Mindeststandards leiten sich aus Rechtsakten der Europäischen Union, der Wirtschaftskommission für Europa der Vereinten Nationen (UNECE) und nationalen Verordnungen wie der Straßenverkehrs-Zulassungs-Ordnung (StVZO) sowie der Fahrzeugteileverordnung (FzTV) ab. Ferner haben sich die Typgenehmigungsbehörden der Unterzeichnerstaaten des 58er Abkommens der UNECE zur gegenseitigen Anerkennung von Typgenehmigungen, die auf international harmonisierten Rechtsakten erteilt wurden, verpflichtet. Als Genehmigungsbehörde ist das KBA nicht zuständig für Genehmigungen von Einzelfahrzeugen mit nationaler Geltung gem. StVZO sowie für die Genehmigung nachträglicher Änderungen an bereits zugelassenen und im Verkehr befindlichen Fahrzeugen. Folgender Hinweis zu Ihrem Anliegen: Wir wissen Ihr Engagement im Bereich der Verkehrssicherheit sehr zu schätzen und können Ihnen mitteilen, dass das KBA die Entwicklungen im genannten Genehmigungsverfahren zu FSD (supervised) des Herstellers Tesla sehr genau verfolgt. Da sich dieses Genehmigungsverfahren jedoch vollumfänglich in der Verantwortung des RDW befindet und dem KBA keine detaillierten Informationen zu dem Prüfverfahren des RDW sowie des Systems FSD (supervised) selbst vorliegen, muss zunächst das weitere Verfahren gem. Art. 39 (4) der VO (EU) 2018/858 abgewartet werden. Hiernach hat die erteilende Typgenehmigungsbehörde (in diesem Fall RDW) der EU Kommission und den Mitgliedstaaten ein entsprechendes Dossier, welches die Informationen gem. Art. 39 Absatz 2 enthält, zuzusenden. Nach Erhalt des Dossiers wird sich das KBA aktiv an dem weiteren Verfahren gemäß Art. 39 beteiligen und im Zuge dessen alle ihm zur Verfügung gestellten Informationen prüfen, damit von deutscher Seite zeitnah eine Position zur Akzeptanz des Systems und in dem zuständigen europäischen Gremium TCMV eingenommen werden kann. Mit freundlichen Grüßen Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt Abteilung Typgenehmigung 24932 Flensburg Internet: kba.de

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Sawi@TheOnlySawi·
@KevinTyson76 @starwars Ep3 was cool in a sense to try explain anakin‘s downfall. Downside was the arc was too rushed and could have needed 3 movies alone
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Star Wars
Star Wars@starwars·
an icon. For more Padmé watch The Phantom Menace streaming on Disney+.
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